2024 NFL Upsets Of The Week

The unpredictability of the NFL means that upsets are always on the horizon. In the wide world of NFL betting, analyzing which favored teams are most vulnerable to stumbling should be one of your first exercises each week. Thankfully, Odds Shark is here every week of the NFL season with our greatest NFL upsets of the week.

From under-the-radar matchups to potential shockers, dive into the key games where NFL underdogs could rise and favorites might fall. Let's dive into my NFL Week 7 upset picks.

NFL Week 7 Upset Pick #1: Detroit Lions (+108) @ Minnesota Vikings

Let me know if you've heard this movie before, Lions quarterback Jared Goff is an unreal 27-9 ATS in his last 36 starts indoors.

The Lions stalwart offensive line sits third in pass-block and rushing win rate. Oh, and then there's Goff's stats in his last few outings against a Brian Flores' defense:

In Goff's last two matchups against Brian Flores he was blitzed on 57 out of 77 drop backs. On those blitz dropbacks he had:

83.6% adjusted completion percentage
510 yds
3 TD, 0 INT
8.9 YPA
121.2 passer rating
6.7 ADoT
2.37s ATTT

This might be a week where Flo has to do the…
— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) October 16, 2024

Additionally, the Lions defense is ninth in expected points added allowed. Detroit's offensive line, as well as their reshaped secondary give them a great shot at an upset on Sunday in Minnesota. Bet on the Lions at +108 as my favorite NFL upset of the week.

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NFL Week 7 Upset Pick #2: Kansas City Chiefs (+102) @ San Francisco 49ers

Throughout his storied NFL career, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a phenomenal 10-3 SU as an underdog. Including in Super Bowl LVIII versus the 49ers in February, when Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 25-22 victory.

I think the 49ers are overvalued here, after playing the likes of the Patriots, Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals across the last month. They'll struggle more than expected against a Chiefs defense that takes no prisoners. After all, Kansas City's stingy defense sits seventh in expected points added allowed. They've surrendered just 17 points per game, and 3.7 yards per rush this season. That's especially important against a San Francisco offense that uses their famed outside zone rushing play to open up the rest of the offense.

On top of that, the 49ers defense ain't what it used to be. They sit 20th in rushing success rate, and 16th in rushing expected points added allowed.

Additionally, starting running back Jordan Mason is still dealing with the effects of last week's shoulder injury, and both Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings popped up on the injury report this week. Back Mahomes as an underdog at +102 on the moneyline.