Jaguars vs Broncos Odds & Picks Week 16

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars meet Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos in an exciting matchup between two of the NFL's red-hot young quarterbacks. This Week 16 showdown features two teams vying for the top-seed in the AFC, as the conference-leading Broncos (12-2 SU, 6-8 ATS) take on the third-seed Jaguars (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS). Denver is listed as a 3-point home favorite, with the total set at 45.5.

Don't miss my Jaguars vs Broncos picks for what promises to be a colossal clash.

Jaguars vs Broncos Odds

Matchup Page: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos, December 21st, 4:05 pm ET

**Jaguars vs Broncos Odds**
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Jacksonville Jaguars	+3 (-110)	+136	Over 45.5 (-115)
Denver Broncos	-3 (-110)	-162	Under 45.5 (-105)

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Jaguars vs Broncos Picks - Week 16

Pick: Jaguars +3 (-110)

Over the last five weeks, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense leads the NFL in EPA per play allowed and are third in opponent success rate. On the flip side, Jacksonville is 10th in offensive EPA with a 56.5% dropback success rate that leads the league. The Jags are a perfect 5-0 both SU and ATS in that span. Heading into the season's final stretch, the Jaguars are the NFL's most underrated squad.

Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos just keep winning. Sean Payton's squad has won 11 straight games, but are just 6-5 ATS in that span. Denver's impressive winning streak has them atop the AFC, with the league's best record. However, the underlying statistics show the Broncos may not be as dominant as many would believe. In fact, Denver's average point margin of 7 during their 11-game win streak sits last among 35 teams in NFL history to 11 or more straight games within a season. When measured amongst their peers, the Broncos winning streak is actually one of the least impressive double-digit streaks in the NFL annals.

Additionally, Vance Joseph's stop-unit hasn't been nearly as impressive of late. Denver's defense has been a below-average group over the past four weeks, with a -3 or worse EPA in all four games. Over the past 25 years, the only other teams to win four in a row with defenses that bad behind them all featured top-tier quarterbacks at the height of their powers: the 2018 Chiefs (Mahomes), 2011 Saints (Brees), 2006 Colts (Manning), and 2003 Bengals (Palmer). The only team to win five games in a row with such a ghastly defensive effort was the 2011 Patriots (Brady).

All of this to say, unless Nix suddenly morphs into a Hall of Fame quarterback, the Broncos run will come to an end sooner than later. Remember, the Packers scored on five straight possessions to open the game last week before Christian Watson got hurt, and with Liam Coen on the sidelines the Jaguars are armed with one of the best play-callers in the NFL. Plus, according to our NFL database, Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of three or more against Denver in their last five such meetings, and 7-3 ATS as a dog of three or more in their last 10 games period. Back the Jaguars to hunt Bronco on Sunday and cover the spread in Week 16.

Jaguars vs Broncos Props - Week 16

Jaguars vs Broncos props for Week 16 have yet to be released, so be sure to check back for my prop pick later in the week.

Jaguars vs Broncos Betting Trends - Week 16

Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Denver
Denver is 12-0 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games when playing at home against Jacksonville