After falling in five games in the NBA Finals last season, the Miami Heat will have to claw their way back into the postseason through the play-in tournament. In their path stand the Philadelphia 76ers with a healthy Joel Embiid in tow.
Let's dive into this long and storied Eastern Conference rivalry and predict how this version of 76ers vs Heat will play out. (Or in?)
Jump to Pick: 76ers vs Heat ML
Game Information
- Matchup Page: No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers vs No. 8 Miami Heat
- Date: Wednesday, April 17, 2024
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
The #SoFiPlayIn matchups are set!
— NBA (@NBA) April 15, 2024
Tuesday on TNT:
7:30pm/et: #8 Lakers at #7 Pelicans
10:00pm/et: #10 Warriors at #9 Kings
Wednesday on ESPN:
7:00pm/et: #8 Heat at #7 Sixers
9:30pm/et: #10 Hawks at #9 Bulls pic.twitter.com/mARzNZhZJ9
Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | -4.5 | -192 | O 207 (-110) |
| Miami Heat | +4.5 | +160 | U 207 (-110) |
With reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid back in the starting lineup, his Philadelphia 76ers have opened as 4.5-point favorites over the Miami Heat. The spread marks the largest of the season between these two bitter rivals.
2023-24 head-to-head History (Tied 2-2)
| Date | Location | Final Score |
|---|---|---|
| April. 4, 2024 | Miami | 109-105 Sixers |
| Mar. 18, 2024 | Philadelphia | 98-91 Sixers |
| Feb. 14, 2024 | Philadelphia | 109-104 Heat |
| Dec. 25, 2023 | Miami | 119-113 Heat |
These longtime Eastern Conference rivals faced off four times during the season and split the season series. Each of this year's matchups finished within seven points with veteran-laden and often shorthanded lineups engaging in rock fights to the bitter end.
Miami defeated Philadelphia in six games in the 2022 playoffs, with Jimmy Butler going bananas against his former squad.
Spread History
| Date | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|
| April. 4, 2024 | Sixers vs Heat (-2.5) | Sixers Cover (Underdogs) |
| Mar. 18, 2024 | Sixers (-3) vs Heat | Sixers Cover (Favorites) |
| Feb. 14, 2024 | Sixers (-2.5) vs Heat | Heat Cover (Underdogs) |
| Dec. 25, 2023 | Sixers vs Heat (-2.5) | Heat Cover (Favorites) |
Predictably, the Heat and Sixers also split their season series ATS. Miami have covered the spread in six of their last 10 meetings with Philadelphia. That being said, the Sixers are on an unbelievable 10-0 ATS streak heading into this one. They're also 7-0 ATS in their last seven games at home.
OVER/UNDER History
| Date | Score | O/U Total | Final Total | O/U Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April. 4, 2024 | 109-105 | 211.5 | 214 | OVER |
| Mar. 18, 2024 | 98-91 | 206 | 189 | UNDER |
| Feb. 14, 2024 | 109-104 | 226.5 | 213 | UNDER |
| Dec. 25, 2023 | 119-113 | 227.5 | 234 | OVER |
Many bettors will target the OVER with such a low total. Although the UNDER has hit in 12 of Philly's last 18 games against Miami. The total has also gone UNDER in six of the last 10 Miami-Philadelphia games. However, the nine of Miami's last 10 games have gone OVER the total. With seven of Philadelphia's last 10 also hitting the OVER mark.
Key Matchup: Joel Embiid Vs Heat Bigs
| Player | Games | PPG | FG% | REB | AST | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 1 | 29 | 44% | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Embiid sat out three of the four matchups versus Miami this season. He played just 33 minutes against the Heat in their most recent skirmish, and devastated the men from South Beach with 29 points. He's averaged 30.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists in five games since returning.
The deciding factor in this game is whether or not Bam Adebayo and co. can slow down Embiid.
Final Pick: Philadelphia 76ers ML (-190)
Philly has been on a tear since Embiid returned from a meniscus injury a few weeks ago. Nick Nurse's squad have beaten the Heat twice in the last month, and has handily beaten multiple playoff teams, coming away with victories against the Clippers, OKC, and Orlando recently. With Embiid reportedly "ready to go", the Sixers are an easy play here. Bet Philadelphia at -190 on the moneyline.
