Events
How Sean Payton Resurrected the Broncos
NFL

How Sean Payton Resurrected the Broncos

Nick Holz Published on: Dec 15, 2023 3:13 AM ET

In a remarkable turnaround story, the Denver Broncos have transformed from a struggling team in the depths of misery, into a playoff team. Sparked by an aggressive defensive philosophy and key personnel changes, the Broncos are a real threat to steal the AFC West out from under the Kansas City Chiefs and shakeup the AFC playoff establishment.

Brutal Beginnings

All of a sudden, Denver sits just one game back of the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC West lead. After starting the year 1-5, Broncos fans were dialing up the mock draft machine with Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in mind.

Their defense was on pace to be one of the worst in the history of the sport, giving up an 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 and an average of 28 to the lowly Jets, Bears, and Raiders.

Despite that, the Broncos are 6-1 in their last seven games and in the thick of the playoff hunt. Over those seven games, the Broncos defense has surrendered just 15.6 points per game, and become the catalyst of the turnaround.

Defensive Awakening

Undrafted second-year corner Ja'Quan McMillian has been a revelation. Since taking over as the starting nickel corner in Vance Joseph's defense, McMillian has racked up two interceptions, two sacks, and a 75.2 PFF grade. The stats don't paint the entire picture of McMillian's monster impact. He's got a nose for the football and seems to always be making plays.

However, it's the Broncos pass-rush that has had the biggest impact on their incredible turnaround. Since Week 6, Joseph has been one of the most blitz-happy coordinators in the NFL, at over 38%. Those blitzes have generated an incredible amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which has led to many more sacks and turnovers. In fact, an about face in pressure rate propelled the Broncos on their five game win streak.

From Weeks 1-5 the Broncos were 31st in pressure rate at just 29%. However, since Joseph started dialing up more blitzes in Week 6, Denver's pressure rate has jumped to 38%, good for 12th in the NFL. Moreover, from Week 10-14 their 39.6% pressure rate is in the top-ten of the league. Pressure naturally forces quarterbacks to make uncharacteristic mistakes and creates big-play opportunities. As General George S. Patton Jr. once said, "pressure makes diamonds."

In football terms, pressure generates turnovers. The single most valuable defensive play on a football field has been key to the Broncos resurrection. Nobody has created them better than Joseph's unit lately.

Denver came up with an astounding 17 turnovers over their 5-game win streak. The Broncos forced an unreal 16 fumbles, and recovered nine of them in that span. Joseph's aggressive defensive calls have perplexed offenses, while Broncos defenders have become a rabid, hungry group, streaming to the football like a Space X missile and destroying everything in their path.

Since the Broncos Week 3 disaster, they've won seven of ten and rank in the top ten in EPA allowed per play. Moreover, Denver now sits 4th in the NFL in turnover differential. Diamonds indeed.

Let's Ride

While he may not be chefing up meals like in years' past, Russell Wilson has played well in a much improved offensive system. Sean Payton has curtailed Russell Wilson's chaos and turned the mercurial Broncos star into a disciplined, well-oiled quarterbacking machine.

Ciara's husband is close to becoming the first quarterback in NFL history with over 3,000 passing yards and 300 rushing yards in the same campaign in nine seasons. Russell's thrown for 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the year, while ranking second in pressured completion percentage and 12th in EPA. In essence, a year after looking like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, Wilson has played efficient football and is on his way to leading the Broncos back into the postseason.

Plus, Courtland Sutton has blossomed into a bonafide top receiver, with a career-high 10 touchdown catches already. He and Wilson have amazing chemistry that seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Sutton's size and strong hands blend well with Wilson's deep ball prowess. He's a contested catch specialist with a propensity for circus catches, and has been a red-zone weapon all year long.

How to bet Broncos Futures

Despite their brutal start, the Broncos are now a great bet at +122 to make the playoffs. Denver also sits at an intriguing +600 to take home the AFC West.

However, the Broncos are tied for the 6th-easiest remaining strength of schedule. Their rest of season opponents sport a winning percentage of just .423, as only the Detroit Lions have a winning record. A perfect finish in the season's final month could be enough to unseat the Chiefs as AFC West champions.

Unfortunately for Denver, the Chiefs own the NFL's fourth easiest remaining schedule, with only the Jake Browning-led Bengals sporting more wins than losses. But, Kansas City are 2-4 in their last six, having failed to surpass the 20-point plateau in four of those contests.

If you believe in the Broncos to take home three of their next four contests, Denver OVER 9.5 wins can still be found at +130 odds.

The Sean Payton Effect

Make no mistake, this season's turnaround has stemmed from the top. Sean Payton deserves all the credit in the world for righting the ship of a Broncos franchise that has been lost at sea since the days of Peyton Manning.

He's won a Super Bowl and an astounding 63% of games as head coach of the New Orleans Saints. But, if Payton can guide these Broncos to the playoffs in his first year on the job, this season may be his finest coaching job yet.

 

 

 

Related News

Back to Top