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Overachieving Dolphins Aim for Rare Win in Buffalo

The Miami Dolphins look to solidify their hold on an AFC wild-card spot with a fifth win in six as betting underdogs when they battle the Buffalo Bills on Saturday in an NFL Week 16 matchup at New Era Field. The Bills ended a two-game straight-up losing streak with last week's 33-13 thumping of the Cleveland Browns as 10.5-point home favorites.

Shark Bites
  • The total has gone OVER in the Dolphins' last three games against the Bills.
  • The Dolphins are 2-9 SU and ATS in their last 11 games on the road against the Bills.
  • The Bills are 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games after losing the previous game in a matchup.

The 9-5 Dolphins are coming off a convincing 34-13 win over the New York Jets as 2.5-point road chalk that improves them to 3-1 SU and against the spread in their past four road games, and halts a 1-7 SU run away from Hard Rock Stadium. Miami is 8-1 SU over its past nine, and has seen the point total go OVER in seven of eight.

The 7-7 Bills' win over Cleveland proved to be a tonic for their struggling defense, which surrendered 28.4 points per game over their previous seven. That has contributed to Buffalo's struggles to cover at home, going 1-3 ATS in its past four. However, the OVER has paid steadily in points total betting, going 11-2 in the Bills' past 13.

The Dolphins posted a 28-25 win over the Bills as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 7, but have struggled in recent visits to Western New York, going winless SU and ATS in four straight since 2011.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Miami Dolphins betting odds line opened as 3.5-point underdogs in this one at most sportsbooks tracked here at Odds Shark (including BetOnline), while the total was hovering around 44 at most shops.

Odds Shark computer prediction handicapping models run on this game picked a 25-20 victory for the Bills.. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Betting fans of the Buffalo Bills have seen them go 7-7 and 6-7-1 ATS so far this season, while the Miami Dolphins are at 9-5 and 8-5-1 ATS. In over under totals betting, the Miami Dolphins are 10-4, while the Buffalo Bills are 11-3. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Buffalo vs Miami injuries news.

The Buffalo Bills sit at No. 15 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at Odds Shark, while the Miami Dolphins are at No. 18 on that chart.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Buffalo Bills No. 9-ranked offense (25.57 PPG) against a Miami Dolphins defense that ranks No. 15 at 22.43 PPG. The Bills passing attack has averaged 182.57 yards per game, less than the Dolphins give up through the air (234.64 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the Miami Dolphins own the league's No. 13-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 104.4 yards per game when on the road. Buffalo, on the other hand, rates No. 1 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Last time out, Ryan Tannehill threw for 3 scores and 195 yards in leading his team past Arizona at Hard Rock Stadium.

Tyrod Taylor passed for 2 touchdowns in his team's last game, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Steelers, who won 27-20 on Sunday.

Betting Trends
  • Miami is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Miami is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 8 games
  • Miami is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
  • Buffalo is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Buffalo's last 10 games
  • Buffalo is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Miami home to New England, Sunday, January 1st
Buffalo at New York, Sunday, January 1st

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