There is no such thing as a 'lock' or a 'sure bet,' despite what your neighborhood handicapper might tell you. But when it comes to NFL preseason betting, one wager has been almost a guarantee the past eight preseasons - betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to lose against the spread.
In their past 30 games, the Chiefs are a jaw-dropping (and bankroll-bleeding) 4-25-1 ATS. And at that, they are on a one-game ATS win streak, covering the number in their 2011 finale against the Packers.
"You don't understand how that type of trend can happen, because it extends back to the years when the Chiefs were Super Bowl contenders, through their low seasons, and now that they are rebuilding," said Mike Pickett.
"But those are the numbers - right there in black and white."
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They get a break to open the season, facing the Cardinals in their first game. This is not to say Arizona is a bad team, but they play in the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday and then turn around and play again on Thursday - a tough challenge.
What other NFL wagering angles have produced results in recent years? Are there other reasons to bet the NFL preseason? The Rams are 7-0 ATS in their past 7 road games and 11-2 ATS in their past 13 exhibition games overall.
UNDER trends
Baltimore is 10-1 in its past 11 preseason road games
Chicago has played four straight preseason UNDERs at Cleveland
OVER trends
Green Bay is 15-2 in its past 17 games overall
Cleveland is 8-2 in its past 10 games
Some teams, like the Lions and their 7-0 ATS run, have been dominant lately. Miami is also 11-3-1 ATS in 15 preseason games, and the Seahawks are 13-4-1 ATS in their past 18 preseason games.
Other teams have been brutal. Oakland is 0-6 ATS in the past two years, and Carolina is a money-losing 2-10 ATS in its past 12.
