The Kings of the loser point, the New York Islanders booked their ticket to the postseason thanks to a remarkable 16 overtime losses. Their reward? New York gets to face a familiar foe the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round.
New York and Carolina have met twice in the playoffs since 2018-19 and the Isles have been eliminated both times.
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Hurricanes vs Islanders playoff series odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | -2100 |
| New York Islanders | +1000 |
Odds as of April 25
With -340 odds, there's no doubt in oddsmakers' minds that the Carolina Hurricanes will win this series. Carolina is 2-1 in playoff series since 2018 when they're the heavy favorites (-200 or lower). The only series loss when that heavily favored, was against the Rangers in 21-22 eventually losing in seven games.
| Series Score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes 4-0 | +172 |
| Hurricanes 4-1 | +198 |
| Hurricanes 4-2 | +470 |
| Hurricanes 4-3 | +790 |
| Islanders 4-3 | +1300 |
Odds as of April 25
Oddsmakers are doubling down on Carolina's heavy favorite status by giving a 4-1 Canes series win the shortest odds on the board at +300.
But look, in the last five years, the Hurricanes haven't won a first-round series in less than six games. I know I'm an Islanders fan, but I don't believe the Isles win just one game in this series. It's going to be closer than oddsmakers think.
Hurricanes vs Islanders betting results
| Date | Home Team ML | Away Team ML | Final Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 19, 2024 | Islanders (+130) | Hurricanes (-150) | 4-1 Hurricanes | 6.0 (U) |
| December 23,. 2023 | Hurricanes (-175) | Islanders (+155) | 5-4 Islanders | 6.0 (O) |
| November 30, 2023 | Hurricanes (-225) | Islanders (+185) | 5-4 Islanders | 6.0 (O) |
| November 4, 2023 | Islanders (+115) | Hurricanes (-135) | 4-3 Hurricanes | 5.5 (O) |
At -340, the Canes are given a 77% chance of winning this series but have split the regular-season series with the Islanders. However, Carolina did win the most recent duel with a convincing 4-1 win.
Since 2018-19, the Canes have held an outstanding 11-5-2 record against the Islanders. The oddsmakers' decision to make Carolina the heavy favorite becomes clearer.
Hurricanes vs Islanders - Notable Player Performances
Mathew Barzal: The Islanders speedster has been magnificent against Carolina this year with eight points in four games. Half of that output comes from a four-point game back in November where he scored the OT winner.
🚨 MAT BARZAL CALLS GAME 🚨
— NHL (@NHL) December 1, 2023
The @NYIslanders bag the extra point in Carolina with an @Energizer OT winner! pic.twitter.com/SvzoGOSAIq
Sebastian Aho (the Finnish one): Are you ready for the Aho bowl? Both teams have a Sebastian Aho in the lineup, though Carolina's Finnish Aho is the better of the two. Carolina's Aho has three goals and four points in four matchups with the Isles this year. He will be a difference-maker for the Canes.
Meanwhile, the Isles Aho (he's Swedish) has averaged just under 17.5 minutes per game against Carolina this year. Which is low for a defenseman. He, on the other hand, will not be a factor.
Pyotr Kochetkov: The Canes' rookie goalie has had a great season, outside of when he plays the Isles. Kochetkov holds a 1-1-1 record with a truly awful 0.853SV% and 3.69GAA vs. New York. Horrible numbers.
Carolina's Power Play: In the four-game set this year, Carolina has scored four power-play goals on 11 opportunities. A ridiculous 36% efficiency on the man advantage. Which makes sense, because the Isles are God-awful on the PK this year at 72.2%. Special teams could easily decide this series.
Hurricanes vs Islanders playoff series expert pick: Hurricanes (-340), Hurricanes 4-3 (+425)
This pains me immensely because I'm not confident that the Islanders can win this series. But I'm not in line with oddsmakers who suggest the Canes will run away with this first-round matchup against New York.
We already saw how Carolina and New York were 2-2SU in their regular-season series. Three of the four games were decided by a single goal. Carolina isn't running away with this series. Which is why I've gone and taken Carolina in seven.
Unfortunately for the Islanders, Carolina has a lot going for it. Such as:
- Depth Scoring: Carlina is getting 66% of its goals from outside of its top three goal scorers. Which is the 10th-best rate in the NHL.
- Offense-and-Defense: At +66 the Hurricanes have the best goal differential in the NHL thanks to a seventh-ranked offense and third-ranked defense.
- Special Special Teams: Carolina is converting on well over a quarter of its power plays (27.1%) and is effective on a ridiculous 86.3% of their penalty kills.
All of that combined means they should win this series. But New York hasn't made it easy for them yet so I doubt it changes now.
Hurricanes vs Islanders betting results last 10 meetings
| Date | Home Team ML | Away Team ML | Final Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 19, 2024 | Islanders (+130) | Hurricanes (-150) | 4-1 Hurricanes | 6.0 (U) |
| December 23, 2023 | Hurricanes (-175) | Islanders (+155) | 5-4 Islanders | 6.0 (O) |
| November 30, 2023 | Hurricanes (-225) | Islanders (+185) | 5-4 Islanders | 6.0 (O) |
| November 4, 2023 | Islanders (+115) | Hurricanes (-135) | 4-3 Hurricanes | 6.0 (O) |
| April 2, 2023 | Hurricanes (-165) | Islanders (+140) | 2-1 Hurricanes | 5.5 (U) |
| January 21, 2023 | Islanders (+155) | Hurricanes (-175) | 5-2 Hurricanes | 5.5 (O) |
| December 10, 2022 | Islanders (+115) | Hurricanes (-135) | 3-0 Hurricanes | 5.5 (U) |
| October 28, 2022 | Hurricanes (-185) | Islanders (+165) | 6-2 Islanders | 5.5 (O) |
| April 24, 2022 | Islanders (+165) | Hurricanes (-190) | 5-2 Hurricanes | 6.0 (O) |
| April 8, 2022 | Hurricanes (-175) | Islanders (+155) | 2-1 Islanders | 5.5 (U) |
The away team owns this matchup with a 9-1SU record. So while Carolina gets the home-ice advantage in this series, over the last 10 games between the two teams that's hardly been an advantage.
