We had an awful week in our last go-around with EPL betting with three straight losses. Maybe an international break will have done us some good.
Before getting to this week's bets here are my three bets from last weekend and the results:
| Pick | Odds | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| Luton-Forest O2.5 | -155 | L |
| Tottenham ML | +100 | L |
| Villa-West Ham O3.5 | +140 | L |
| Overall Record | 9-6 | |
| Profits (Units) | +6.94 | |
English Premier League Expert Picks Matchweek 30
Chelsea vs Burnley
The Game: Chelsea vs Burnley, Saturday, March 30, 11 AM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | -320 | O3.5 (+130) | -1.5 (-125) |
| Burnley | +800 | U3.5 (-160) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Draw | +500 |
Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (-125)
Burnley might look like they're in good form with a win in their last match, but that was against relegation rival Brentford. Take that win out and Vincent Kompany's men have failed to take all three points in their previous 11 matches across all competitions.
Chelsea has been on a good run of form with two wins and two draws in their last four games. Facing a Burnley squad who've allowed 12.5 goals above expected and who hold the third-worst away record is music to Mauricio Pochettino's ears.
I expect Chelsea to get all three points by scoring a healthy number of goals. Winning by two goals is the play here.
Brentford vs Manchester united
The Game: Brentford vs Manchester United, Saturday, March 29, 4 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | +185 | O3.5 (+130) | +0.5 (-165) |
| Manchester United | +135 | U3.5 (-165) | -0.5 (+125) |
| Draw | +280 |
Pick: Manchester United ML (+135)
I can't see United losing this one. Brentford has been dreadful at home this year with a 4-4-6 record. The Bees only have two home wins since December, both coming against relegation favorites Luton and Nottingham Forest.
Don't forget that Brentford is likely without three massively important pieces of their back four Ethan Pinnock, Sergio Reguillon and Ben Mee.
ManU have been great away from home all year. With 22 points from 14 games, they've got the sixth-highest points per game rate in the league. Over their last seven road games, Erik Ten Hag's men hold a 6-0-1 record. Only losing to cross-town rivals Manchester City/
Manchester City vs Arsenal
The Game: Manchester City vs Arsenal, Sunday, March 31, 11:30 AM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | -105 | O2.5 (-120) | -0.5 (-115) |
| Arsenal | +290 | U2.5 (+100) | +0.5 (-120) |
| Draw | +265 |
Pick: Manchester City ML (-105)
What better way to come out of the international break than having a clash of titans with massive EPL title implications?
City holds a commanding 7-0 record against Arsenal when they're the home team. Why would that change now? The Citizens hold an 8-2-0 record at home in their last 10 across all competitions. The Etihad is a fortress for the Sky Blue.
Arsenal has been shaky away from the Emirates lately with a 4-2-4 record. And look, those four road wins have come against Brentford, Nottingham Forest, West Ham and Sheffield United. Three of those are against relegation favs.
City wins.
