The Leagues Cup Final is set with two MLS squads facing off. Lionel Messi's Inter Miami takes on Hany Mukhtar's Nashville SC. The two are set to face off at GEODIS Park in Nashville on Saturday, August 19.
Heading into the game Inter Miami is favored at +105 on the moneyline and it's hard to argue with that seeing how they've played in the lead-up to the Final.
Leagues Cup Final Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | +0.5 (-155) | +215 | O2.5 (-165) |
| Inter Miami | -0.5 (+105) | +105 | U2.5 (+115) |
| Draw | +270 |
Odds as of August 16
Obviously, both squads are on winning runs. That's how they got to the Final. But with the trio of Lionel Messi, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets, Miami should be considered the favorites.
If you haven't been paying attention, Messi is seemingly scoring at will in the Leagues Cup. Whether it's pure skill or poor defending doesn't matter. They don't ask you how but how many.
Again and again and again.
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) August 16, 2023
Six games. Six wins. Nine goals.
Relive Leo Messi's latest star showing in @LeaguesCup action. ✨ pic.twitter.com/LkpE4iSHbE
If the GOAT keeps up this goal-scoring form when MLS play resumes he might just win the Golden Boot.
So maybe you should sprinkle a unit or two on Messi to score at any time. His odds are at -120. That's $8 of profit if the Argentinian Wizard continues to find the back of the net. Why would he stop now?
I'm not going to focus on the moneyline. When it comes to a final anything can happen. Grit and determination can trump skill. So instead I'm going to focus on the total.
The line is set at 2.5 goals. The OVER is at -165. That's a line I like a lot. Sure, the payout isn't as good as +105. At -165 a winning $10 bet would return $6 in profit for a $16 payout.
But let's look at both teams run through the League Cup and you'll see this is the smartest bet to make.
For Nashville, the total has gone OVER 2.5 goals in four of six games in the Leagues Cup while Inter Miami have gone OVER 2.5 goals in all six of their matches. That's an 83% hit rate combining both teams' records. Why would you bet anything else?
| Game | Nashville | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Group Stage | vs Colorado 2-1 (O) vs Toluca 3-4 (O) | vs Cruz Azul 2-1 (O) vs Atlanta 4-0 (O) |
| Round of 32 | vs Cincinnati 1-1 (U) | vs Orlando 3-1 (O) |
| Round of 16 | vs América 2-2 (O) | vs Dallas 4-4 (O) |
| Quarter-Finals | vs Minnesota 5-0 (O) | vs Charlotte 4-0 (O) |
| Semi-Finals | vs Monterrey 2-0 (U) | vs Philadelphia 4-1 (O) |
Extending the sample size to the MLS and Miami has seen the score exceed 2.5 goals 10 times in 13 games played since May. That includes a 2-1 loss to Nashville on May 17.
I'm going to be betting on the OVER in this matchup.
