2016 featured plenty of eye-opening upsets in the UFC. We witnessed Bryan Barberena derail the Sage Northcutt hype train and Michael Bisping shocking the world by finally winning UFC gold over Luke Rockhold. However, when all was said and done, dogs went just 179-307 through the 2016 calendar. Underdogs won at a rate of 36.8 percent, which is a slight decrease from the 38.5 percent they posted in 2015.
After each UFC event, OddsShark will update the year-to-date underdogs vs favorites record using the closing lines for each fight, as well as the records for each event with the biggest upset on each card. Our UFC fight analysis also takes a look at how profitable underdogs are based on a $100 bet on every underdog on every card.
Here’s how things stack up so far this year:
Event | Underdog Wins | Favorite Wins | Biggest Upset |
---|---|---|---|
YEAR-TO-DATE | 141 | 300 | Rose Namajunas (+500) Over J. Jedrzejczyk |
UFC Fight Night 103 | 2 | 10 | Augusto Mendes (+140) Over Frankie Saenz |
UFC On Fox 23 | 4 | 8 | Jorge Masvidal (+155) Over Donald Cerrone |
UFC Fight Night 104 | 5 | 7 | Felice Herrig (+300) Over Alexa Grasso |
UFC 208 | 2 | 8 | Belal Muhammad (+125) Over Randy Brown |
UFC Fight Night 105** | 3 | 7 | Randa Markos (+210) Over Carla Esparza |
UFC 209** | 5 | 5 | Darren Elkins (+450) Over Mirsad Bektic |
UFC Fight Night 106* | 2 | 9 | Joe Soto (+185) Over Rani Yahya |
UFC Fight Night 107** | 4 | 6 | Francimar Barroso (+170) Over Darren Stewart |
UFC 210** | 4 | 7 | Charles Oliveira (+175) Over Darren Will Brooks |
UFC on Fox 24 | 5 | 8 | Anthony Smith (+270) Over Andrew Sanchez |
UFC Fight Night 108 | 4 | 9 | Hector Sandoval (+130) Over Matt Schnell |
UFC 211*/** | 3 | 7 | David Branch (+150) Over Krzysztof Jotko |
UFC Fight Night 109 | 5 | 7 | Volkan Oezdemir (+325) Over Misha Cirkunov |
UFC 212 | 3 | 9 | Brian Kelleher (+265) Over Iuri Alcantara |
UFC Fight Night 110 | 3 | 8 | Luke Jemeau (+160) Over Dominique Steele |
UFC Fight Night 111 | 2 | 10 | Ulka Sasaki (+350) Over Justin Scoggins |
UFC Fight Night 112 | 3 | 10 | Clay Guida (+265) Over Eric Koch |
TUF 25 Finale | 3 | 8 | Gray Maynard (+270) Over Teruto Ishihara |
UFC 213 | 1 | 10 | Aleksei Oliynyk (+230) Over Travis Browne |
UFC Fight Night 113 | 3 | 9 | Paul Felder (+160) Over Stevie Ray |
UFC on Fox 25 | 7 | 6 | Junior Albini (+230) Over Timothy Johnson |
UFC 214 | 5 | 7 | Calvin Kattar (+285) Over Andre Fili |
UFC Fight Night 114 | 4 | 8 | Humberto Bendenay (+230) Over Martin Bravo |
UFC Fight Night 115 | 1 | 11 | Thibault Gouti (+140) Over Andrew Holbrook |
UFC 215 | 6 | 5 | Kajan Johnson (+450) Over Adriano Martins |
UFC Fight Night 116 | 4 | 6 | Daniel Spitz (+164) Over Anthony Hamilton |
UFC Fight Night 117** | 3 | 6 | Jessica Andrade (+250) Over Claudia Gadelha |
UFC 216* | 3 | 6 | John Moraga (+400) Over Magomed Bibulatov |
UFC Fight Night 118* | 3 | 8 | Jan Blachowicz (+125) Over Devin Clark |
UFC Fight Night 119** | 3 | 8 | Pedro Munhoz (+150) Over Rob Font |
UFC 217 | 6 | 5 | Rose Namajunas (+500) Over J. Jedrzejczyk |
UFC Fight Night 120** | 4 | 8 | Andrei Arlovski (+265) Over Junior Albini |
UFC Fight Night 121 | 3 | 10 | Nik Lentz (+325) Over Will Brooks |
UFC Fight Night 122 | 4 | 8 | Kenan Song (+230) Over Bobby Nash |
TUF 26 Finale* | 3 | 7 | Ryan Janes (+450) Over Andrew Sanchez |
UFC 218 | 3 | 10 | Yancy Medeiros (+265) Over Alex Oliviera |
UFC Fight Night 123** | 5 | 7 | Andre Soukhamthath (+265) Over Luke Sanders |
UFC on Fox 26 | 4 | 7 | Josh Emmett (+230) Over Ricardo Lamas |
UFC 219* | 4 | 5 | Michal Oleksiejczuk (+300) Over Khalil Rountree |
*Event featured a draw/no contest. **Event featured a fight with even odds
Event | Profit Based On $100 Underdog Bets | Profit Based on $100 Favorite Bets |
---|---|---|
YEAR-TO-DATE | -$5277.46 | -$636.96 |
UFC Fight Night 103 | -$740.00 | +$369.53 |
UFC on Fox 23 | -$358.18 | +$58.91 |
UFC Fight Night 104 | +$365.00 | -$190.70 |
UFC 208 | -$579.76 | +$88.96 |
UFC Fight Night 105** | -$294.09 | -$35.56 |
UFC 209** | +$665.00 | -$164.99 |
UFC Fight Night 106* | -$540.00 | +$256.75 |
UFC Fight Night 107** | -$79.76 | -$165.06 |
UFC 210** | -$135.00 | -$149.90 |
UFC on Fox 24 | +85.00 | -$227.06 |
UFC Fight Night 108 | -$474.09 | -$41.56 |
UFC 211*/** | -$349.09 | +$67.16 |
UFC Fight Night 109 | +$325.00 | -$198.25 |
UFC 212 | -$320.00 | +$171.96 |
UFC Fight Night 110 | -$340.00 | +$72.00 |
UFC Fight Night 111 | -$545.00 | +$173.49 |
UFC Fight Night 112 | -$470.00 | +$206.95 |
TUF 25 Finale | -$205.00 | +$39.70 |
UFC 213 | -$770.00 | +$365.80 |
UFC Fight Night 113 | -$435.00 | +$75.41 |
UFC on Fox 25 | +$540.00 | -$456.69 |
UFC 214 | +$100.91 | -$201.58 |
UFC Fight Night 114 | -$194.76 | +$10.01 |
UFC Fight Night 115 | -$960.00 | +$344.55 |
UFC 215 | +$935.00 | -$342.34 |
UFC Fight Night 116 | -$40.00 | -$240.48 |
UFC Fight Night 117** | -$59.09 | -$59.76 |
UFC 216* | +$125.00 | -$5.36 |
UFC Fight Night 118* | -$459.76 | +$19.17 |
UFC Fight Night 119** | -$429.76 | +$64.52 |
UFC 217 | +$815.00 | -$388.75 |
UFC Fight Night 120** | -$90.00 | -$68.35 |
UFC Fight Night 121 | -$395.00 | +$139.55 |
UFC Fight Night 122 | -$150.00 | +$15.11 |
TUF 26 Finale* | +$100.00 | -$8.87 |
UFC 218 | -$480.00 | +$117.44 |
UFC Fight Night 123** | +$255.00 | -$198.90 |
UFC on Fox 26 | -$70.00 | +$18.42 |
UFC 219* | +$235.00 | -$187.01 |
*event featured a draw/no contest, **event featured a fight with even odds