Aztecs host Falcons in Week 11 action
Air Force Falcons vs San Diego State Aztecs Odds
In an important game out in the Mountain West Conference the San Diego State Aztecs, fresh off an upset victory at Boise State, come home to host the Falcons of Air Force Saturday afternoon (3:30 pm ET, NBC Sports Network).
SD State, which is now tied with Fresno State for the lead in the MWC, was an early nine-point favorite over AF, which is tied for second place, just a half-game out.
Betting Line: The Falcons were listed as 7-point underdogs on the opening NCAA football line at 5Dimes and most sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark. No total was available early in the week.
Power Rankings / Prediction: This game matches up the No. 62 (Aztecs) and the No. 116 (Falcons) teams in the league, according to our current NCAAF Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 40-35 result in favor of the Aztecs is predicted by handicapping models.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up San Diego State's No. 31-ranked offense (35.1 PPG) against a Falcons defense that ranks No. 77 at 29 PPG. The Aztecs passing attack has averaged 188.9 yards per game, less than the Falcons give up through the air (195 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Falcons own the league's No. 107-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 244.8 yards per game when on the road. San Diego State, on the other hand, rates No. 18 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Last time out for Air Force, they were a 41-21 loser as they battled Army on the road. Air Force failed to cover in the match as a 7-point favorite, while 62 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. Air Force didn’t make much of a game of it last time out, losing to the Black Knights as Army blasted them 41-21 in Week 10 action.
San Diego State won its last outing, a 21-19 result against Boise State on November 3. San Diego State covered in that game as a 16-point underdog, while the 40 combined points took the game UNDER the total. Adam Muema ran through the Boise State defense for 127 yards in San Diego State's last game, handing the Broncos a 21-19 setback on Saturday at Bronco Stadium.
Air Force Falcons Trends:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 7-3
San Diego State Aztecs Trends:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the conference are 8-2
A few Falcons at Aztecs trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Air Force's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego State
Air Force is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Air Force's last 6 games when playing San Diego State
Air Force is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing San Diego State
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego State's last 7 games when playing at home against Air Force
San Diego State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego State's last 6 games when playing Air Force
Air Force home to Hawaii, Saturday, November 17
San Diego State at Wyoming, Saturday, November 24