Bulldogs visit Aztecs in Week 9 NCAAF clash
|Fresno State Bulldogs||San Diego State Aztecs|
Resurgent Fresno State, 6-0 and ranked No. 17 in the first BCS standings, looks to continue its path toward crashing the BCS party when it heads down the coast to take on 3-3 San Diego State Saturday night at Qualcomm Stadium (10:30 pm ET, ESPN2).
After beating UNLV Saturday 38-14 the Bulldogs remained undefeated, but they're only 1-5 ATS on the season. Saturday they missed the cover by two points as 25-point favorites.
The Aztecs, meanwhile, who started 0-3 this year, have won three straight, after rallying from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win at Air Force 27-20 two Thursdays ago.
As of early this week FSU, which beat State last year 52-40, was favored by nine points over the Aztecs.
The Bulldogs will look to vanquish their hosts on Saturday, as they are 1-5 ATS versus the spread this season, while the Aztecs are 3-3 ATS. Fresno State is 4-2 against the total, while San Diego State is 2-4 versus the number.
On the opening line for this matchup, the Aztecs sat as 9.5-point underdogs, according to BetOnline. The total, meanwhile, had not been posted early in the week, so check the lines pages for the latest.
This game matches up the No. 53 (Aztecs) and the No. 12 (Bulldogs) teams in the league, according to our current NCAAF Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 47-30 result in favor of the Bulldogs is predicted by handicapping models.
Fresno State won its last outing, a 38-14 result against UNLV on October 19. Fresno State failed to cover in that game as a 25-point favorite, while the 52 combined points took the game UNDER the total. Air Force was unable to contain Donnel Pumphrey in its last action Thursday and the result was a 27-20 Week 7 loss against the Aztecs.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up San Diego State's No. 63-ranked offense (30 PPG) against a Bulldogs defense that ranks No. 90 at 30.17 PPG. The Aztecs passing attack has averaged 258.17 yards per game, less than the Bulldogs give up through the air (278 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Bulldogs own the league's No. 6-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 75 yards per game when on the road. San Diego State, on the other hand, rates No. 89 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
A few Bulldogs at Aztecs trends to consider:
Fresno State is 5-0-1 SU in its last 6 games
Fresno State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Fresno State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State's last 5 games on the road
San Diego State is 4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego State is 4-10-1 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 7 games at home
San Diego State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Fresno State
Fresno State at Nevada, Saturday, November 2nd
San Diego State at New Mexico, Saturday, November 2nd