College football is coming up quickly! Oddsmakers have showered us with all the glorious futures bets and upcoming gamelines we need to get started for the 2023 season.
But, with all the discussions of who's in the running to become national champions or hoist the Heisman Trophy, we can't get blinded with excitement.
Below, we break down a few teams we strongly advise you to fade for the 2023 NCAAF season. So, think twice before wagering on the following!
2023 College Football Teams To Fade
Various sportsbooks have win totals, odds to go undefeated or even odds to make the CFP ready for action. So, let's use those when deciding which programs we won't be clicking on in our betting apps.
Florida Gators
Win Total: O/U 5.5 Wins
Championship Odds: +10000
SEC Championship Odds: +9500
Odds To Go Undefeated: +17000
Man, oh, man... the Gators have their work cut out for 'em. I get it, a 5.5 win total is temptingly low but please don't fall into the trap. Florida wrapped up last year with a 6-6 regular season record and that was with Anthony Richardson, who was selected fourth-overall in the NFL Draft. Despite his over 3,000 total yards and 26 total touchdowns, the 6-foot-4 signal caller couldn't even make a difference.
Just a reminder that your blue-blood Florida Gators have a win total of 5.5.
— The Tailgate Tent🏈⛺️ (@TheTailgateTent) July 16, 2023
They can make every excuse in the world but this should NEVER happen at Florida in the transfer portal era. Sun Belt Billy better figure it out. Nothing he has done is impressive so far.
So, what makes us think Billy Napier's squad can do it without him?
Truthfully, overthinking how new QB1 Graham Mertz will look in his new role is not the first worry. The Gators have arguably the toughest schedule this season, kicking off against No. 14 Utah and No. 12 Tennessee within the first three weeks. The end of October schedules those intimidating No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs followed up by No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Florida State a couple of weeks later. Don't forget to sprinkle in the contests with Kentucky, Missouri and South Carolina, either! Depending how much the AP Poll shifts, Florida could be facing plenty of ranked competition.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Win Total: O/U 10.5 Wins
Championship Odds: +500
SEC Championship Odds: +280
Odds To Go Undefeated: +425
Odds To Make CFP: +140
Hot take? Probably. Do I care? Not really. In my humble opinion, Alabama gets its odds boosted purely based on legacy. But, the Tide haven't been as much of a threat as they once were. Tied with a fourth-ranking in the preseason, it's the first time Alabama has been outside the top 3 in August since 2009.
And let's not forget, Nick Saban's squad went 10-2 last season, forcing them to miss the playoffs for just the second time in the CFP era. Keep in mind, all that fumbling happened whilst carrying the best quarterback in the nation and first-overall selection in the NFL, Bryce Young. Not to mention, RB Jahmyr Gibbs and LB Will Anderson Jr. have also moved on. A lot of lost talent for Alabama heading into this year.
Damieon George says the talent level at Florida and Alabama is the same.
— Nick de la Torre (@delatorre) August 7, 2023
Being in the SEC ain't easy, folks. The Crimson Tide could potentially struggled to find a groove meeting intact opponents like No. 11 Texas, No. 12 Tennessee, No. 5 LSU, No. 22 Ole Miss and No. 23 Texas A&M... That's plenty of potential for an upset.
Don't worry, Saban. If the best teams need a year or two to regroup and rebuild.
TCU Horned Frogs
Win Total: O/U 7.5 Wins
Championship Odds: +8500
Big 12 Championship Odds: +1200
Odds To Go Undefeated: +2400
First things first, I'm not saying that win total isn't possible. But, for sure fade every other futures bet.
I loved watching TCU's miracle run last season just as much as the next person, but it was just that -- a miracle run. The Horned Frogs were +20000 to win the title this time last year and barely even had odds accessible to make the CFP. But, somehow Sonny Dykes did it.
The TCU Horned Frogs are the first preseason unranked team to reach the national title game in the CFP era.
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) January 1, 2023
TCU before the year:
• picked 7th in Big 12 Poll
• win total of just 6.5 wins
• 250 to 1 odds to win the nat’l title after Week 1 (34th best in CFB)
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but WR Quentin Johnston is gone and so his resilient signal-caller Max Duggan. Those two were the heart of that TCU group, earning over 4,700 yards and 47 touchdowns combined.
Here's the thing, I think the now No. 17 Horned Frogs can start the season off on the right foot based on scheduling. But those last five weeks can really screw it up for them, meeting No. 16 Kansas State, No. 11 Texas, Baylor and No. 20 Oklahoma.
How To Bet On College Football Fades:
The best way to utilize these college football teams to fade is in a win total futures bet. Every college football team will have a line set for their total wins this season, and you can bet if a team will win more or fewer games than that line.
For example, if the Ohio State Buckeyes have a win total line of 10.5 wins, they would have to win 11 or more games to hit the OVER. If they win 10 or fewer, that’s the UNDER. The best way to fade our suggested teams is to hammer that UNDER on the win total.
