Alabama vs Ole Miss Wagering Pick
Top-ranked Alabama continues its march toward another BCS berth when its hosts Ole Miss Saturday night (9:15 pm ET, ESPN).
The 4-0 Tide, who have won the last eight games in this series, were favored by 31 points over the 3-1 Rebels. But the Tide has failed to cover three straight at home to Mississippi as well, making the underdog line a tempting one from a trends perspective.
Power Rankings / Prediction: The OddsShark Power Rankings have the Crimson Tide at No. 3 and the Rebels at No. 95 heading into this contest. Handicapping models project a 64-38 result in favor of the Crimson Tide.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Alabama's No. 13-ranked offense (42 PPG) against a Rebels defense that ranks No. 73 at 25.8 PPG. The Crimson Tide passing attack has averaged 221 yards per game, less than the Rebels give up through the air (248 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Rebels feature the league's No. 1-rated road run defense, allowing 14 yards per game. Alabama, meanwhile, ranks No. 51 in rushing offense at home.
Mississippi was a 39-0 winner in their most recent outing on the road against Tulane. They covered the 17.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (39) made winners of UNDER bettors. Tulane didn’t make much of a game of it last time out, losing to the Rebels as Mississippi blasted them 39-0 in Week 4 action.
Alabama was a 40-7 winner in their most recent outing at home against Florida Atlantic. They failed to cover the 48.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (47) made winners of UNDER bettors. Florida Atlantic was unable to contain Eddie Lacy in its last action Saturday and the result was a 40-7 Week 4 loss against the Crimson Tide.
Mississippi Rebels Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 1-9
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 0-10
Alabama Crimson Tide Trends:
When playing in September are 10-0
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 9-1
A few Rebels at Crimson Tide trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi's last 5 games when playing on the road against Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi's last 6 games on the road
Mississippi is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Mississippi is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Mississippi
Alabama is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games at home
Mississippi home to Texas A&M, Saturday, October 6
Alabama at Missouri, Saturday, October 13