Game Preview - Badgers underdogs vs Nittany Lions at Penn State
Wisconsin Badgers vs Penn State Nittany Lions Odds
In a Big Ten battle 7-4 Wisconsin, which is headed to the conference championship game out of the Leaders Division, visits Happy Valley to take on 7-4 Penn State Saturday afternoon (3:30 pm ET, ESPN2).
The Badgers, whose four losses this season have come by a total of 16 points, were early three-point dogs vs. the Lions, who, for reasons known all too well, will not play in a bowl this season despite their record.
Betting Line: The Nittany Lions were listed as 2.5-point favorites at sportsbooks such as Bovada on the college football lines.
Power Rankings / Prediction: It's a betting matchup between the No. 19-rated Nittany Lions and the No. 13-ranked Badgers, according to the NCAAF Power Rankings here at Odds Shark. Predictive-scoring models run on this game indicate a potential 36-34 result in favor of the Nittany Lions.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Penn State's No. 57-ranked offense, averaging 29.5 PPG, against a Badgers defense that ranks No. 14 this week at 17.5 PPG. The Nittany Lions aerial game is averaging 280.3 yards per game, more than the Badgers secondary allows through the air, 196.3 YPG per game.
In comparing defenses, the Badgers own the league's No. 24-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 131.5 yards per game when on the road. Penn State, on the other hand, rates No. 106 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
In their last action, Wisconsin was a 21-14 loser at home against Ohio State. They failed to cover the 1-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (35) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. In their last game, Wisconsin got a 191-yard performance from Montee Ball, but Ohio State prevailed 21-14.
Penn State was a 45-22 winner in their most recent outing at home against Indiana. They covered the 16.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (67) made winners of OVER bettors. Matt McGloin's 395-yard performance through the air was enough last time out, as Penn State earned a 45-22 win over Indiana on Saturday at Beaver Stadium.
Wisconsin Badgers Trends:
When playing in November are 9-1
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 7-3
Penn State Nittany Lions Trends:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the conference are 6-4
A few Badgers at Nittany Lions trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 5 games on the road
Wisconsin is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 6 games when playing Penn State
Wisconsin is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Penn State's last 7 games
Penn State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Penn State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Penn State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games