How do Teams Perform the Week After an OT Game?

There have been seven overtime games so far in the 2019 season, including six in Week 2 alone. Probably the most notable game to need extra time was Michigan’s narrow 24-21 double-overtime triumph over Army in Week 2. I dove into the numbers on how teams perform in their following contest after an extended game.

Fading Teams Involved in OT Games Not a Wise Decision

Going back to the beginning of the 2018 season, there have been 28 overtime games and the winners of those games have a combined record of 17-11 SU and 15-13 ATS in their following regular-season game. Meanwhile, a similar story can be written about the losers of the OT games, going 15-11 SU but 12-14 ATS in their next outings – there are two games missing because they were FCS teams that are not included in our database.

Now, in the points above, it may seem like a good approach to fade the losers of an overtime game. But looking back further, since the beginning of the 2016 season, OT losers have a spread record of 48-42 in their followup games.

So, Where’s the Edge?

In general, there wasn’t a huge edge in the SU or ATS records for teams coming off an overtime game and that simply wasn’t good enough for me, so I had to dig deeper ... and an edge we found!

Dating back to the start of the 2016 season, home teams in an overtime game that remain home for the following game have a record of 26-5 SU and 24-7 ATS. Similarly, the home team in a game that goes to overtime that hits the road for the next game is 30-34 SU but 38-25-1 ATS, so home teams in an OT game overall are 56-39 SU and 62-32-1 ATS in their next regular-season game since the start of 2016.

But how does this work for road squads? Not great! Road teams in an overtime game that remain on the road for the next game since the start of 2016 are 9-19 SU and 9-19 ATS. When those road teams in an OT game return home for the following game, they win more but still don’t cover with a record of 40-23 SU and 28-34-1 ATS. The overall record for road teams in an overtime game for the following contest is 49-42 SU and 37-53-1.

Meanwhile, for you totals bettors out there, I have an angle for you too. Since the start of 2016, home teams in an extended game tend to go UNDER the following game – if they remain home, the OVER/UNDER record is 14-17, while if they hit the road, it’s 30-33-1, for an overall record of 44-50-1.

For those road squads in an overtime game, if they remain on the road for the following match, the OVER/UNDER record is 18-9-1, but if they come home, it’s 25-37-1, making an overall total record of 43-46-1.

For Week 3, we have eight teams that are in action following overtime games last week and below I have outlined their situations: