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SMU at Baylor Week 1 NCAAF Betting Pick

The Mustangs had their five-year bowl streak snapped last season after stumbling to a 5-7 record SU. Bettors didn’t make any money on the Mustangs last season on their 6-6 ATS record, which was even at home and on the road, both 3-3 ATS.

The Bears made it into their first BCS bowl last season, but came up short, falling to UCF 52-42 as a 16.5-point favorite in the Fiesta Bowl. Baylor still managed to go 11-2 SU, win the Big 12 Championship and put money into the pockets of bettors at 9-4 ATS, including going 8-1 ATS at home.

Baylor is 4-0 SU and ATS vs SMU since 1995 and they have been dominant in this role in recent years, going 13-1 ATS as double-digit home chalk since 2010.

SMU meanwhile is 3-13-1 ATS vs Big 12 since 2002. For totals bettors, the OVER is 11-1 past 12 Baylor games in September.

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Baylor Bears Opening Odds and Betting Line

The Baylor Bears were sitting as -30-point favorites earlier in the week at Bovada. The total was huge at 73 over at BetOnline.

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Computer Prediction: Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Baylor Bears Pick

Odds Shark score prediction models pick a 58-25 result in favor of the Bears on Sunday. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NCAAF matchups here.

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Baylor Bears Odds and Stats.

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Baylor Bears sit at 11-2 (9-4 ATS) on the season; in comparison, the Southern Methodist Mustangs are currently 5-7 (6-6 ATS). Looking to bet on the totals? Baylor is 9-4 OU, and Southern Methodist is 7-5 OU. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Baylor vs Southern Methodist injuries news.

This game matches up the No. 2 (Baylor Bears) and the No. 76 (Southern Methodist Mustangs) teams in the league, according to our current NCAA football Power Rankings at Odds Shark.

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How Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Baylor Bears Stats Matchup

The game also pits Baylor's No. 1-ranked offense, averaging 52.38 PPG, against a Southern Methodist defense that ranks No. 101 this week at 33.33 PPG. The Baylor aerial game is averaging 359.08 yards per game, more than the Southern Methodist Mustangs secondary allows through the air, 271.83 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Southern Methodist Mustangs own the league's No. 16-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 119.67 yards per game when on the road. Baylor, on the other hand, rates No. 10 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Southern Methodist lost its last outing, a 17-13 result against Central Florida on December 7. Southern Methodist covered in that game as a 13-point underdog, while the 30 combined points took the game UNDER the total. The Mustangs suffered a Week 15 loss against Central Florida in their last game, falling 17-13 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

In their last action, Baylor was a 52-42 loser at home against Central Florida. They failed to cover the 16.5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (94) was profitable news for OVER bettors. In Baylor's last outing, Bryce Petty threw for 356 yards in a losing cause against the Knights, 52-42 at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Next Betting Matchups

Southern Methodist at North Texas, Saturday, September 6th
Baylor home to Northwestern State, Saturday, September 6th