Baylor favored big vs Oklahoma
Baylor is 15-5 against the spread in its last 20 games. But who have the Bears played during that prolific stretch?
We’ll certainly find something out about the legitimacy of the high-scoring Bears on Thursday, when the Oklahoma Sooners visit for a huge game in the Big 12.
The Bears opened as 7-point favorites, but money poured in on the favorite, pushing the line to as high as 13 at some shops. This is only the ninth time since 1995 that the Sooners have been double-digit underdogs. Oklahoma is 3-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog during that stretch.
The Sooners have won 15 of 16 meetings straight-up with Baylor and five of six have played OVER the total. The Sooners are just 2-7 ATS past nine within the Big 12, whereas Baylor is 13-3 ATS in its past 16 games within the Big 12. That conference edge goes decidedly to the Bears.
Supporters of the Sooners have seen them go 7-1 and 4-4 ATS so far this season, while the Bears are at 7-0 and 6-1 ATS. In totals betting, the Bears are 6-1, while the Sooners are 4-4.
The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Bears rated this week at No. 1 and the Sooners sitting at No. 31. It may or may not play a role in OddsShark score prediction models that turned out a 44-31 result in favor of the Bears this week.
Oklahoma won its last outing, a 38-30 result against Texas Tech on October 26. Oklahoma covered in that game as a 7-point favorite, while the 68 combined points took the game OVER the total. Bryce Petty led his team to victory last time out, throwing for 430 yards Saturday as the Bears downed the Jayhawks 59-14 at Memorial Stadium.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Baylor's No. 1-ranked offense (63.86 PPG) against a Sooners defense that ranks No. 14 at 18.75 PPG. The Bears passing attack has averaged 417.29 yards per game, more than the Sooners give up through the air (179.5 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Sooners own the league's No. 102-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 220 yards per game when on the road. Baylor, on the other hand, rates No. 4 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
A few Sooners at Bears trends to consider:
Oklahoma is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma's last 6 games
Oklahoma is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma's last 7 games on the road
Baylor is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baylor's last 7 games
Baylor is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oklahoma at Iowa State, Saturday, November 16th
Baylor at Texas Tech, Saturday, November 16th