The Philadelphia Eagles are defying expectations.
"But Mitch, they made the Super Bowl last year and entered the season as one of the title favorites again this year, how could they possibly be defying expectations???"
Well, astute reader, you make a fair point. But, for basically every line bookmakers set, the Eagles smash through it. They're 10-1 on the moneyline, 7-2-2 against the spread (the NFL's best record), and the expectation-defying success leaks into most prop betting markets, too:
Eagles Game Props: WR A.J. Brown
Eagles receiver A.J. Brown is having himself a season, currently on pace for over 1600 yards and double-digit touchdowns. With an incredible run from week three through eight, Brown set an NFL record with six-straight games of 125+ receiving yards. If you've been hammering Brown's reception and yardage overs, you've been having yourself a great season, too.
| Market | Record | Average Prop Line | Average Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 8-3 | O/U 5.59 | 6.6 Receptions |
| Rec Yards | 7-4 | O/U 73.5 | 95.5 Yards |
This is A.J. Brown's fifth straight game with 125+ receiving yards 🤩
— ESPN (@espn) October 23, 2023
He ties the longest streak in NFL history with Calvin Johnson (2012) and Pat Studstill (1966) 😮 pic.twitter.com/pTB3qZlHPn
Eagles Game Props: RB D'Andre Swift
Entering the season, the Eagles' running back situation was pretty muddy.
Rashaad Penny, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell all looked like they'd eat into D'Andre Swift's workload and create some kind of mega-platoon in the backfield. In his first game of the season, Swift managed just three yards on one carry. After that things took off.
If you take that first game out of the picture, Swift is averaging 76.7 rushing yards per game and almost 5.0 yards per carry. I think the initial uncertainty around Swift's workload brought his rushing attempt prop markets way down for most the year, and he's been smashing through them lately. Swift is averaging over two more carries per contest than his average line and even as the books adjust, he's still gone over the market in four of his last five games.
| Market | Record | Average Prop Line | Average Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 6-5 | O/U 51.5 | 70.0 Yards |
| Rushing Attempts | 8-3 | O/U 12.5 | 14.6 Attempts |
Eagles Game Props: QB Jalen Hurts
While Jalen Hurts' prop markets aren't quite as dominant as his top Philly weapons, the quarterback is worth a prop look, especially in recent weeks.
One reason Hurst has established himself as the clear NFL MVP favorite (at around +150 to win) is due to his consistent over-performance.
| Market | Record | Average Prop Line | Average Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 6-5 | O/U 242.5 | 245.2 Yards |
| Passing TDs | 5-6 | O/U 1.5 | 1.6 TDs |
While Hurts' passing touchdowns line seems like the one Philly prop market that isn't consistently going over, even that line has been particularly profitable recently. Hurts has 11 passing scores in his last five games, and has gone over 1.5 in four of his last five contests.
After tougher matchups against the 49ers and Cowboys in the next two weeks, Hurts and the Eagles match up against bottom-half passing defenses for the rest of the season (Seahawks, Cardinals, and two games against the Giants). Even if the books start sliding these prop markets up, the last month of the season should continue to pay off for Hurts and Brown, specifically.
