March Madness Seeds: 3 vs 14

From 2000 through 2012, there were only three March Madness upsets involving the No. 14 seed against the No. 3 seed. But there has been one each of the past two years in the NCAA Tournament with Harvard knocking out New Mexico 68-62 as a 10.5-point underdog in 2013 and then Mercer ousting Duke 78-71 as a 12.5-point dog in 2014.

Ohio’s 97-83 rout of Georgetown as a 14-point underdog in 2010 remains the biggest win of any No. 14 seed in tourney history, as each of the previous five upsets were all decided by three points or less. And just two of those took place between 2000 and 2009, with Bucknell (2005) and Northwestern State (2006) each winning by one point.

Prior to 2000, there was at least one upset where a No. 14 seed beat a No. 3 in 11 of 15 years since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The exceptions were 1985, 1993, 1994 and 1996. In addition, there were two years in which two No. 14 seeds advanced to the second round (1986 and 1995). In 1986, Arkansas-Little Rock and Cleveland State upset Notre Dame and Indiana, respectively. In 1995, it was Weber State defeating Michigan State and Old Dominion needing three overtimes to boot Villanova.

Despite consecutive upsets in 2013 and 2014, the No. 3 seeds have gone 10-6 against the spread versus the No. 14 in 16 games covering the past four March Madness brackets. In 2010, the No. 14 seeds went 3-1 ATS including the straight-up victory by Ohio. There were two other years since 2000 when the No. 14 seeds enjoyed the same success with a 3-1 ATS mark (2001 and 2006). The best stretch for the No. 3 seeds since 2000 happened from 2007 through 2009 when they went 12-0 straight-up and 10-2 ATS.

Of the 18 No. 14 seeds that have pulled off an upset in the first round, only two have ever advanced to the Sweet 16 (Cleveland State in 1986 and Chattanooga 11 years later) and none made the Elite Eight. Cleveland State and Chattanooga both beat No. 6 seeds in the second round before bowing out of the NCAA Tournament.

Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9

#3 Seed vs #14 Seed
#3 Seed Score #14 Seed Score Date ATS Win Win Seed ATS Seed
Iowa State 93 North Carolina Central 75 2014-03-21 Iowa State 3 3
Creighton 76 Louisiana-Lafayette 66 2014-03-21 Louisiana-Lafayette 3 14
Duke 71 Mercer 78 2014-03-21 Mercer 14 14
Syracuse 77 Western Michigan 53 2014-03-20 Syracuse 3 3
Florida 79 Northwestern State 47 2013-03-22 Florida 3 3
New Mexico 62 Harvard 68 2013-03-21 Harvard 14 14
Marquette 59 Davidson 58 2013-03-21 Davidson 3 14
Michigan State 65 Valparaiso 54 2013-03-21 Michigan State 3 3
Georgetown 74 Belmont 59 2012-03-16 Georgetown 3 3
Florida State 66 St. Bonaventure 63 2012-03-16 St. Bonaventure 3 14
Baylor 68 South Dakota State 60 2012-03-15 Baylor 3 3
Marquette 88 BYU 68 2012-03-15 Marquette 3 3
Syracuse 77 Indiana State 60 2011-03-18 Syracuse 3 3
Purdue 65 Saint Peter's 43 2011-03-18 Purdue 3 3
Connecticut 81 Bucknell 52 2011-03-17 Connecticut 3 3
BYU 74 Wofford 66 2011-03-17 Wofford 3 14
Pittsburgh 89 Oakland 66 2010-03-19 Pittsburgh 3 3
New Mexico 62 Montana 57 2010-03-18 Montana 3 14
Georgetown 83 Ohio 97 2010-03-18 Ohio 14 14
Baylor 68 Sam Houston State 59 2010-03-18 Sam Houston State 3 14
Missouri 78 Cornell 59 2009-03-20 Missouri 3 3
Kansas 84 North Dakota State 74 2009-03-20 Kansas 3 3
Syracuse 59 Stephen F. Austin 44 2009-03-20 Syracuse 3 3
Villanova 80 American 67 2009-03-19 American 3 14
Louisville 79 Boise State 61 2008-03-21 Louisville 3 3
Wisconsin 71 CS Fullerton 56 2008-03-20 Wisconsin 3 3
Stanford 77 Cornell 53 2008-03-20 Stanford 3 3
Xavier 73 Georgia 61 2008-03-20 Xavier 3 3
Oregon 58 Miami (Ohio) 56 2007-03-16 Miami (Ohio) 3 14
Pittsburgh 79 Wright State 58 2007-03-15 Pittsburgh 3 3
Texas A&M 68 Pennsylvania 52 2007-03-15 Texas A&M 3 3
Washington State 70 Oral Roberts 54 2007-03-15 Washington State 3 3
North Carolina 69 Murray State 65 2006-03-17 Murray State 3 14
Iowa 63 Northwestern State 64 2006-03-17 Northwestern State 14 14
Gonzaga 79 Xavier 75 2006-03-16 Xavier 3 14
Florida 76 South Alabama 50 2006-03-16 Florida 3 3
Kansas 63 Bucknell 64 2005-03-18 Bucknell 14 14
Gonzaga 74 Winthrop 64 2005-03-17 Winthrop 3 14
Arizona 66 Utah State 53 2005-03-17 Arizona 3 3
Oklahoma 84 Niagara 67 2005-03-17 Oklahoma 3 3
Pittsburgh 53 Central Florida 44 2004-03-19 Central Florida 3 14
Georgia Tech 65 Northern Iowa 60 2004-03-19 Northern Iowa 3 14
North Carolina State 61 Louisiana-Lafayette 52 2004-03-19 North Carolina State 3 3
Texas 66 Princeton 49 2004-03-18 Texas 3 3
Syracuse 76 Manhattan 65 2003-03-21 Syracuse 3 3
Xavier 71 Troy 59 2003-03-21 Push 3  
Marquette 72 Holy Cross 68 2003-03-20 Holy Cross 3 14
Duke 67 Colorado State 57 2003-03-20 Colorado State 3 14
Pittsburgh 71 Cent Conn State 54 2002-03-15 Pittsburgh 3 3
Mississippi State 70 McNeese State 58 2002-03-15 Mississippi State 3 3
Georgia 85 Murray State 68 2002-03-15 Georgia 3 3
Arizona 86 Santa Barbara 81 2002-03-14 Santa Barbara 3 14
Florida 69 Western Kentucky 57 2001-03-16 Florida 3 3
Mississippi 72 Iona 70 2001-03-16 Iona 3 14
Maryland 83 George Mason 80 2001-03-15 George Mason 3 14
Boston College 68 Southern Utah 65 2001-03-15 Southern Utah 3 14
Oklahoma State 86 Hofstra 66 2000-03-17 Oklahoma State 3 3
Ohio State 87 Appalachian State 61 2000-03-17 Ohio State 3 3
Maryland 74 Iona 59 2000-03-16 Maryland 3 3
Oklahoma 74 Winthrop 50 2000-03-16 Oklahoma 3 3
Kentucky 82 New Mexico State 60 1999-03-12 Kentucky 3 3
Cincinnati 72 George Mason 48 1999-03-12 Cincinnati 3 3
St. John's 69 Samford 43 1999-03-11 St. John's 3 3
North Carolina 74 Weber State 76 1999-03-11 Weber State 14 14
Michigan 80 Davidson 61 1998-03-13 Michigan 3 3
Stanford 67 College of Charleston 57 1998-03-13 College of Charleston 3 14
South Carolina 61 Richmond 62 1998-03-12 Richmond 14 14
Utah 85 San Francisco 68 1998-03-12 Utah 3 3
Wake Forest 68 St. Mary's 46 1997-03-14 Wake Forest 3 3
New Mexico 59 Old Dominion 55 1997-03-14 Old Dominion 3 14
Georgia 70 Chattanooga 73 1997-03-14 Chattanooga 14 14
Cincinnati 86 Butler 69 1997-03-13 Cincinnati 3 3
Texas Tech 74 Northern Illinois 73 1996-03-15 Northern Illinois 3 14
Villanova 92 Portland 58 1996-03-15 Villanova 3 3
Georgia Tech 90 Austin Peay 79 1996-03-15 Austin Peay 3 14
Arizona 90 Valparaiso 51 1996-03-15 Arizona 3 3
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