When it gets a bit chilly outside and snow starts falling, that means it's time for AJ Dillon to bust out the truck stick. The Packers running back has been a menace in December throughout his career, racking up more yards, better efficiency, and more touchdowns in the month than any other.
“He wants to get the dirty yards in December running the ball,” receiver Romeo Doubs told The Athletic.
So, is "December Dillon" real? And how can we capitalize on it?
december aj dillon: good for your fantasy team pic.twitter.com/I2xH3sw0Iu
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 20, 2022
Is AJ Dillon Actually Better In December?
| Category | December | Other Months |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 47 |
| Yards/Game | 51.4 | 38.7 |
| Yards/Attempt | 4.63 | 3.98 |
| TD/Game | 0.7 | 0.17 |
In basically every meaningful metric, AJ Dillon is better in December.
He gets more rushes, more yards, and more scores, but he's also taking advantage of those opportunities in a more efficient way. It's not entirely surprising Dillon is used to the cold weather, given that he played his college days at an outdoor stadium for Boston College. The average December temperature in Boston is ~20 Fahrenheit (below 0 Celsius), not that far off from the Green Bay marks.
While Dillon didn't get to play much in December during his time at BC (Bowl Games aren't often on the table for the Eagles) his best games regularly came later in the season there, too. In his final season with BC, Dillon had three games of over 160 rushing yards in his final month of play — including a 242 yard, three touchdown whooping of Syracuse that I was at.
“I think we can all see it and the results kind of speak for themselves,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur told The Athletic. “Over the last couple years, he’s been pretty effective later in the season.”
Stream December Dillon in your Fantasy Leagues
From a fantasy football perspective, Dillon's December success is pretty obvious, too. In December throughout his career, Dillon has averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game. In all other months, that's down at 6.6. If you're looking for a flex option or a low-end RB2 to help you squeeze into the playoffs, December Dillon is your guy.
Dillon's December Success Will Continue
After Dillon started his 2023 December with 73 yards on 18 carries, there isn't much to indicate he'll slow down this month. In the Packers' remaining December games this year, they've got a crack at some of the league's worst rushing defenses:
- Week 14 @ Giants: 28th ranked rushing defense (136.1 rY/G)
- Week 15 vs Buccaneers: 10th (99.0 rY/G)
- Week 16 vs Panthers: 23rd (125.2 rY/G)
Dillon hasn't performed well against these three teams before, with just 115 total yards in four career games against the trio. But, it's December now, so things are different.
Dillon's rushing yards prop line has sat, on average, at O/U 41.8 yards so far this season. His historical December production (and the poor rushing defense he's facing) will make the Packers' RB an easy OVER NFL prop bet for me this month.
Other December Rushing Heroes
AJ Dillon takes his game to another level in the winter months, but he's not the only one. Here are five other NFL running backs who perform best in December over the last five seasons:
| Playeer | Dec RYards/Game | Other Months RYards/Game | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 119.4 | 102.7 | +16.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 100.1 | 85.1 | +15 |
| Miles Sanders | 73.1 | 59.3 | +13.8 |
| Joe Mixon | 78.7 | 66.8 | +11.9 |
| Gus Edwards | 56.1 | 46.4 | +9.7 |
