On Twitter, Trey Lance is one of the most polarizing NFL players. Some believe he has infinite potential as a future franchise QB, while others are already calling him a bust. If you're going to wager on where Lance plays football next season, however, you need to remove your opinion and try and gauge the 49ers' opinion of their signal-caller.
Where will Trey Lance Play Game 1 of the 2023 NFL Season?
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | -1000 |
| Houston Texans | +800 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +800 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +800 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +850 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1600 |
Odds as of April 26
Before we analyze these odds, below are five reasons the 49ers will trade Lance and five reasons they will not trade him.
Reasons the 49ers will trade Lance
- Brock Purdy has looked far better than Lance and has emerged as a legitimate potential franchise QB.
- The 49ers signed Sam Darnold and wouldn't have done so if they had faith in Lance.
- He has a $9.3 million cap hit in 2023 and $10.8 million in 2024, a bargain price for a starter, but not if he's viewed as a backup.
- Lance's injuries and poor play, albeit in limited time, have been disappointing.
- The 49ers don't have a draft pick in rounds 1 or 2, and could use extra ammo.
Reasons the 49ers won't trade Lance
- Brock Purdy will not be ready for the start of next season, and there's no guarantee he will be ready at all in 2023.
- The 49ers coaching staff is obsessed with roster competition, and a Lance vs. Darnold scenario theoretically makes both better.
- Lance is still only 23-years-old and has untapped potential and a sky-high ceiling.
- The 49ers invested three first-round picks and a third-round pick to acquire Lance (See: Sunk Cost Fallacy).
- Kyle Shanahan's offense is very complex, and Lance had two full years to master the playbook, which is valuable.
- There may not be much of a market for a guy who hasn't played two straight full games since 2019.
With these reasons in mind, lets take a closer look at the odds:
San Francisco 49ers (-1000)
Clearly oddsmakers think Trey Lance is staying put in the bay. At this price, it would cost you $100 to win $10 or $1000 to win $100. It's tough to argue with this number, as a trade would require the 49ers to be somewhat sour on Lance (we can't say for certain this is true), another team to be interestedand for the teams to be able to agree on fair compensation.
In others words, a lot of boxes would need to be checked for a trade to take place.
Minnesota Vikings (+850)
Kirk Cousins is in the final year of his deal, and it's an open secret that Kyle Shanahan is a massive fan of Cousins after coaching him in Washington.
Swapping Lance for Cousins solves problems on both teams' rosters but also creates salary cap problems for the 49ers. We also don't have any evidence that the Vikings see Lance as a viable starting QB worthy of trading for.
Houston Texans (+800)
The Texans are in desperate need of a franchise QB after trading Deshaun Watson, and Texans coach DeMeco Ryans is very familiar with Lance from his time in San Francisco. In fact, it was Ryans' job as defensive coordinator to stop Lance in practice, so it's possible he developed a soft spot for him.
The Texans own three of the first 33 picks in the draft and have the ammunition to make this move. By acquiring Lance, the Texans could then spend their first round picks on the "best available player" as opposed to reaching for a QB.
Indianapolis Colts (+800)
It's no secret the Colts need a QB, and they have an above average cache of draft picks headed into Thursday's draft. The Colts own three picks in the fifth round and have the No. 4 and No. 35 overall picks.
The Colts had an uncharacteristically porous offensive line last year, and a mobile QB might be just what the doctor ordered to cover up those warts. Colts coach Shane Steichen helped turn Jalen Hurts into an All-Pro QB, and if he sees that kind of potential in Lance, he could pull the trigger.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+800)
The idea of the Buccaneers starting Kyle Trask or Baker Mayfield in Week 1 is hard to swallow. At the same time, their 19th-overall pick isn't in range to lock up one of the top four most coveted QBs in the draft.
Unless the Bucs have fallen in love with a QB who will still be available to them later in the draft, they will need to trade up to get a top QB. The compensation required to acquire Trey Lance would be far cheaper than what it would take to move from No. 19 into the top five or six selections.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1600)
This isn't going to happen. I could think of several teams more likely to land Lance in a trade than the Eagles. The Titans, for instance, stand out because their GM Ran Carthon likely thinks highly of Lance after playing a role in drafting him as a member of the 49ers' front office.
The Eagles have their QB of the future, and Lance likely wouldn't be too thrilled to sit behind Jalen Hurts, creating potential for locker room drama.
Trey Lance Trade Options: The pick
If this prop was written as Will Trey Lance be on the 49ers next season? (Yes -1000, and No +800), then an argument could be made for some of the "No" price. Getting 8-to-1 odds on Lance being traded would be a good bet.
However, because there are multiple potential trade destinations, there simply isn't good enough value to bet any of those underdog numbers, and the -1000 price on him staying put is expensive.
Even if your -1000 bet comes home, your sportsbook will be holding onto your money for months before you can collect it. With this in mind, I can't recommend a bet on this prop. Sometimes the best bet is not making a bet, and I believe that's the case here.
