NHL Playoffs Expert Picks: Happy Leafs Elimination Day

It's time. The Stanley Cup is being polished, the series are locked in as the NHL playoffs begin.

Just like the players, our team is taking no days off either. Michel Anderson and I will be giving picks for every playoff game this season.

Read all of our picks or jump ahead to the game you're most interested in: 

NHL Playoffs Betting Picks

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Rolling Records
Michel: 20-13 (+1.01 Units)
Josie: 16-17 (-0.59 Units)

Game 5: Maple leafs vs bruins
The Game: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins, 7 PM ET

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Boston Bruins Series Preview

Michel's Take: Look away Leafs fans, but when on the road following a loss, Toronto is 7-12SU this season. Making things worse is they haven't won in this context in five straight games. They also lost by two or more goals in four of those last five L's.

This year the Bruins own the Leafs with a 7-1SU record. Winning by two or more goals five times. Now add that since 2020, the Bruins are 8-6SU on home ice in the playoffs. And have won by two or more goals in seven of those eight wins. 

Unlike the buds on your trees, these ones won't bloom. The Bruins end this series tonight and win by at least two goals. 

See Michel's +405 three-leg same-game parlay for this matchup.

Josie's Take: We all saw the tension on Toronto's bench between Matthews, Marner and Nylander in Game 4. I'm not going to harp on that too much considering Marner and Nylander were laughing together at practice. But, it does kind of suggest that when times get tough on the ice, these three fail to work as a unit. That's not something you want from arguably your top three leaders.

As of this morning, Toronto is also gearing up to play Game 5 without Matthews, who has missed practices with an undisclosed illness. 

We've reverted back to the same exhausting narrative of "what needs to change for Toronto?" and expecting yet another playoff collapse. But, what do I care? I'm a Habs fan. 

No sweat off Boston's back. I'll ride with them.

Michel's Pick: Bruins -1.5 (+164)
Josie's Pick: Bruins ML (-166)

Game 5: islanders vs hurricanes
The Game: NY Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes, 5 PM ET

NY Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes Series Preview

Michel's Take: Only once have we seen any of these four games go OVER 5.5 goals. I think the oddsmakers are looking at the recent history between these two teams in Raleigh. Through four games in this context, the scoring has gone OVER 5.5 goals three times.

But it's the playoffs, baby! Things change! There hasn't been much scoring in this series. So I'm surprised the line is up to 5.5 goals. For the Islanders to win they can't get dragged into a shootout. They've got to keep the score close. 

I'm taking the UNDER tonight.

Josie's Take: Someone do a wellness check on Michel* because that double-overtime win to stay alive in the series was not for the faint-hearted. As this series has progressed, the Islanders' defense has gotten better, allowing five goals in the last two outings.

The discrepancy has been New York's offense has struggled to gain any type of proper lead, notching just five goals in the same span. 

The next few games, if they happen, are bound to continue being close calls. 

(*Michel here. I'm alive. But I did have to take extra heart meds that day.)

Michel's Pick: UNDER 5.5 (+100)
Josie's Pick: Islanders +1.5 (-130)

Game 5: avalanche vs jets 
The Game: Colorado Avalanche vs Winnipeg Jets, 9:30 PM ET

Colorado Avalanche vs Winnipeg Jets Series Preview

Michel's Take: The Jets have fallen and don't look like they'll be able to get back up. Their previously league-leading goaltending has evaporated. Hellebuyck holds a disastrous 5.23GAA and 0.870SV% in this series. 

And now their scoring has gone too. They scored -3.22 goals above expected (in all situations) from Game 2 to Game 4. The Jets have fewer goals in the last three games than they had in Game 1. Thought we should have seen the warning signs when Winnipeg scored seven goals on 1.96 expected goals in that high-scoring first game.

I don't think Winnipeg has what it takes to stay alive here. They're done.

See Josie's +729 three-leg same-game parlay for this matchup!

Josie's Take: Winnipeg sure is happy to finally get out of Colorado, dropping both meetings at Ball Arena. Despite the Avs holding a commanding 3-1 lead, I'm not convinced the Jets bow out this easily. 

Winnipeg is more than capable of beating Colorado, we saw it three times in the regular season when the Jets snapped 17 goals on the Avs across three meetings. It's obvious the Jets have hung Hellebuyck out to dry, having yet to record above a .872SV% this series.

If we know one thing, it's that these two love to score. One is on the brink of elimination and the other hasn't scored less than five goals in the first round. I'll happily take the OVER.

Michel's Pick: Avalanche ML (-122)
Josie's Pick: OVER 6.5 (-118)

Game 5: Predators vs canucks
The Game: Nashville Predators vs Vancouver Canucks, 10 PM ET

Nashville Predators vs Vancouver Canucks Series Preview

Michel's Take: Much like the regular season, the Canucks are PDO'ing their way through this series. it's the only explanation for winning when a random third-string goalie is in the net.

In three games this series (the three they won), Vancouver's PDO was 110%, 113% and 109%. Anything above 100% is considered lucky. Most of that is from their shooters who converted on 19% of their shots in Game 1, 17% in Game 3 and 19 (again) in Game 4. The Canucks are really lucky. 

All that to say, it's not a sustainable way to win. That's going to come crashing down at some point.

Josie's Take: How are the Canucks doing it? Vancouver has been dealt nothing less than terrible luck losing Demko and DeSmith. Yet somehow, they keep squeaking out wins and lead the series. 

On the other end of the ice, Juuse Saros posted a disgusting .809SV% last game. I don't trust either goaltending here, who have been letting in goals left and right all series on barely any shots. 

Michel's Pick: Predators ML (-102)
Josie's Pick: OVER 5.5 (-115)