NCAAF Betting Report

NCAAF: Friday Night Games' Betting Result and Profits

College football will always pluck a couple of matches to play on a Friday each week. Above are the results from the 2023-24 season. 

Leaning towards the favorites is the where all the profit is. You'd be up over $900 if you hammered the favorites moneyline each week. The profit is equally as enticing ATS, where the favorites have raked in over $1,500 worth of profit so far.

home advantage doesn't exist on fridays 

Clearly looking for a home crowd edge doesn't make any significant difference on Friday. The home teams have gone 21-24 and are down a good chunk of change (-$1439.02). So, stick to the trends that are working in the chart above. Guess the students have night classes to attend instead of a football game. 

How Do FCS Teams Fare Against FBS Squads?

Against the spread, wagering on FBS teams should be a game-by-game decision as our data shows the results are iffy on both sides. As we've mentioned before, lines in college football can be rather large and covering a 20-plus point spread is very doable. The FCS programs definitely storm into these matchups hungry and hoping to make a mark against Division 1 opponents. So, the scoreboard can be closer than you think sometimes. In terms of profit, riding with the FBS moneyline and predicting them to win straight up is the most relilable, smartest play. 

How To Bet FCS vs FBS Games

If you want to treat all FCS vs FBS games the same, our historical data shows that the best strategy for betting on these college football games is to hammer the favored FBS teams straight up. That trend has been pretty profitable for the last few years.

However, it’s also important to treat these games differently. Is Alabama at -10000 against a random FCS school worth the bet, even if they’re guaranteed to win? Probably not.  

Top-10 Head-To-Head Betting Results

The most anticipated college football matchups are when we get to witness the best go up against the best. It's the games that could feature Heisman Trophy and national championship favorites and where the passion of the fans is on overdrive.

Two top-10 teams meeting happens about 10 times a year in the regular season as the decorated groups clutch onto a promising overall record where stakes are high.

The 12th man is alive and well

Over the last seven seasons, the home team has gone 29-16 SU when going head-to-head with another top-10 ranked squad. To make you feel even more confident about your bets this season, the home team is 28-17 ATS and 26-19 for O/U bets. 

Keep in mind, most top-10 ranked outings tend to be played at neutral locations. 

Top-10 Listed CFB Team Betting Results & Advice

Certain teams do thrive better under pressure than others because they've been under it many times. No. 3-ranked Ohio State has the most relilable record (18-8) when facing a fellow top-10 team. However, since that's predictable and the Buckeyes are typically pinned as the favorite, taking them to win outright doesn't rake in the most jaw-dropping profit (+$99.29).

But beware, stay far away from wagering on Ohio State ATS as you'd be down a brutal -$875. Expecting a blowout can be far-fetched sometimes.

The SEC's LSU Tigers (15-10) are hands down the most profitable, carrying a hefty $1,687 money bag over their shoulders. They carry the second-best overall record and Ohio State (9-3) follows to round out the top three most successful high-ranked CFB teams against top-10 schools.

College Football Underdog Records

Hitting a college football underdog bet is one of the best feelings! But, an outright underdog win clearly isn't something that happens too often.

In 2023, the underdog only won 193 matches outright. But, the 10-point underdog SU is even worse, cashing in just 31 times.

Typically, we don't necessarily need the underdogs to win to be profitable, do we? The underdogs may go down to defeat, but the scoreboard won’t be as tilted as people think, especially in 10-point spread occasions. 

College Football Underdog Profitability

Yikes. You'd be down a massive chunk of change if you blindly bet on the underdogs outright this year. Throughout last season, we watched the 10-point 'dogs ATS chart shift back-and-forth between plus-money territory. From Week 5 to Week 13, the profit jumped from -$285 to +$405.71. But, one weekend deflated it all where it;s final stand is at -1.9 units for a sad -$194.28.

How College Football Underdog Betting Works

Betting on college football can be daunting with all the conferences and teams, but one great way to get started is to have a ride-or-die strategy, like betting on the underdogs.

It’s easy and profitable, and all you need are the basics of sports betting. In your college football sportsbook, you’ll find odds that can be listed as American odds (-500), fractional odds (1/5) or decimal odds (1.20). We use American style here, but you can often swap between formats at any book.

Those odds are then used to help you gauge and value the different kinds of bets. Here’s an example of a moneyline bet (using American odds), where you would just have to pick the straight-up (SU) Sportsbook of the contest:

Ohio State Buckeyes -130
Michigan Wolverines +240

In this case, Ohio State is the favorite, paying out $100 in profit for every $130 you bet. Michigan is the underdog, as shown by the plus (+) sign, paying out a higher amount if the Wolverines were to upset the Buckeyes.

College Football Underdog Betting: Against The Spread

While betting moneyline or straight up can be very profitable for the upsets, you can always lean on spread betting if you don’t want to hope for a massive upset.

In spread wagering, the underdog is given a set number of points that they can’t lose by (or they can win outright), whereas the favorite has to win by a certain amount. Here’s an example:

LSU Tigers -7.5 (must win by eight or more points)
Alabama Crimson Tide +7.5 (can lose by seven or fewer points, or win)

College Football Net Yards Per Play Takeaways

What Is Net Yards Per Play?

It’s pretty simple. The stat combines yards per play and yards allowed per play by deducting the number of yards a team allows per play from the amount it gains on offense.

Why Is Net Yards Per Play Useful?

You might be asking yourself why exactly you might need this tool. Why is looking at net yards per play useful? Because looking at net yards per play eliminates random factors such as turnovers, botched kicks and special teams touchdowns. 

Of course, randomness plays a large role in the outcome of most sports, but it’s impossible to predict. Analyzing net yards per play gives us a great indication of how good a team truly is. It’s no surprise that the top of the net yards per play rankings is typically crowded with many of the best teams in the country while the bottom is full of sub-.500 and last-place teams.

College Football First-Quarter Betting Trends

The trends do not favor blindly betting on favorites or home teams to cover in the first quarter at this point in the college football season.

College Football First-Half Betting Trends

First-half results have been even worse than first-quarter betting. The big takeaway here, don't blind bet first halves or quarters. You gotta look for a more specific edge, like individual teams by ATS first-half records. Here were the best teams in 2023:

UNLV: 9-1 (+$710.61)
Missouri: 9-1 (+$710.29)
Georgia Southern: 8-2 (+$549.79)

Betting on UNLV to cover a first-half spread of +1.5 against Air Force seems like a great bet this weekend.

Betting Against Teams That Are Ranked

College football can be unpredictable (it's why we adore it so much). The majority of ranked dogs cover the spread against unranked opponents. But, upsets happen all the time. For example, a No. 25 team is the underdog on the road against an unranked home team. When in doubt, you can always take the underdog because they’re ranked and that seems safe.

You can also look at the scenario from the other side. The team is ranked 25th because they’ve barely squeaked into the rankings. The team that isn’t ranked is playing at home and the odds are telling you they’re going to win or cover the spread.

Key To Betting Ranked Underdogs

If Florida is ranked 25th and the Gators are playing Colorado State, which has no ranking, you need to look at the numbers to give you a better idea of which team to bet on. In this hypothetical situation, let’s say that the Gators are the underdog. The Rams are the favorite, and they’re playing at home.

Florida is 2-5 against the spread (ATS). Colorado State is 6-2 (ATS). The predicted score is 32.7 for the Rams and 12.7 for the Gators. In this case, you would want to take Colorado State even though Florida is ranked.

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