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Errol Spence Jr. vs Danny Garcia Odds Analysis & Prediction

Errol Spence vs Danny Garcia Betting Odds

Errol Spence Jr., the No. 4 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, returns to the boxing ring this month for the first time in over a year after a scary car accident last October. He will defend his WBC and IBF welterweight titles against Danny Garcia, who is making his third attempt to reclaim the WBC welterweight strap since he owned it back in 2016.

This title fight headlines a boxing card that will take place on December 5 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, and can be seen at FOX PPV starting at 9 p.m. ET.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the Spence vs Garcia odds and has listed Spence as the -500 favorite, with Garcia coming back as a +350 underdog. This means you would need to wager $500 on Spence to profit $100, while a $100 bet on Garcia to win would profit you $350.

According to our sports betting calculator, Spence’s odds of -500 have an implied win probability of 83.33 percent, while Garcia’s odds of +350 have an implied win probability of 22.22 percent.

Errol Spence Jr. vs Danny Garcia Odds

FighterCurrent Odds
Errol Spence Jr.-500
Danny Garcia+350

Odds as of December 4 at Bovada

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Spence vs Garcia Pick & Preview

The 2015 prospect of the year, Spence lays his perfect 26-0 record on the line and in doing so makes his fifth IBF title defense and first WBC defense. “The Truth” has recorded 21 of 26 pro wins by knockout, although he hasn’t scored a victory in that manner since June 2018.

Spence loves to lead the dance, backing his opponents against the ropes and trying to bait them to attack so he can read their movements and counter aggressively. Additionally, he does a good job holding his ground when his foes try to pressure him. His outstanding head movement and footwork makes him an elusive target to hit.

It was only six years ago that Garcia was the WBC, WBA (Super) and The Ring light welterweight champion but losses to Keith Thurman and Shawn Porter make this fight with Spence feel like a must-win if “Swift” wants to continue fighting for world titles.

Garcia has a really good jab that he works well behind and he often doubles and triples up on it to continue touching his opponent. He likes to maintain distance, but also takes the center of the ring and holds that ground, darting in with his long strikes and then getting out without absorbing much damage.

At times, Garcia will leave his strikes long, not returning his hand to his chin quickly, which leaves him vulnerable to counters, and his lead hook tends to be choreographed by a big step in.

It is in Garcia’s best interests to start this fight fast and furious, in hopes of perhaps catching Spence off guard following his lengthy layoff from the horrible car accident he had a year ago.

The longer this fight goes, the more the momentum swings in favor of the champ, as he will learn the challenger’s tendencies and then go on the attack. I expect Spence to put on a show that may lead to a fight with Terence Crawford in 2021, so I like a late knockout by the champ.

Prediction: Errol Spence Jr. (-500) via knockout rounds 10-12