The PGA Tour regular season is coming to an end as the 2023 3M Open represents the second-to-last event on its playing schedule. Players will travel from England and Lake Tahoe alike to Blaine, Minnesota for the fifth playing of the event at TPC Twin Cities with all eyes on the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year Cameron Young headlines the betting action at +1200. Coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes at the John Deere Classic and The Open, Young looks to enter the winner’s circle for the first time in his career.
Defending champion Tony Finau follows closely behind at +1400. Since capturing the Mexico Open, his second victory of the season, the 33-year-old has been unable to flash similar form. Without a top-10 finish since his victory, Finau looks to get right on the par 71 that features water hazards around every corner.
Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama and Sepp Straka round out those players listed at or below +2000 while big names like Justin Thomas and Ludvig Aberg find themselves at +2500.
2023 3M Open Betting Odds
Odds as of July 25
2023 3M Open Picks
A lot of value on the board this week and as a result, I'm avoiding the top favorites and looking further down starting with Matsuyama.
Hideki Matsuyama To Win +1800
The man from Japan looks close to reentering the winner’s circle. Matsuyama arrives off a subtle T-13 finish at The Open and continued a nice stretch of consistent quality. Since the Players Championship, Matsuyama has seven finishes inside the top 25 and only one outside.
During this time, he ranks third in total strokes gained, first in strokes gained tee-to-green, first in strokes gained approach and 17th in strokes gained around the green.
He finds himself narrowly outside the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings and is very much in need of a big week. Having finished T-7 in his lone 3M Open appearance, Matsuyama has the form and history to notch his first victory of the season.
Aaron Rai To Win +4000
The Englishman failed to qualify for The Open and missed the cut in the Scottish Open. It was a forgettable few weeks back in his homeland, but the good news is Rai has been fantastic while in the United States. He comes into the 3M Open off finishes of T-9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, T-24 at the Travelers Championship and T-3 at the Canadian Open.
The 28-year-old finds himself as the most accurate driver of the golf ball in this field, and that will loom large as TPC Twin Cities features the most water hazards of any course on the PGA Tour.
Over the last three months, he ranks 10th in total strokes gained, fifth in strokes gained tee-to-green and sixth in strokes gained approach. If enough putts fall, Rai is a prime candidate to capture his maiden victory on the PGA Tour.
Stephan Jaeger To Win +4000
It is only a matter of time for the German.
Jaeger was among the betting favorites at the Barracuda Championship last week before finishing T-34. While some were disappointed, his prospects and price this week are a buy sign. Before the Barracuda Championship, Jaeger had rattled off finishes of T-13 at the John Deere Classic and T-9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
He is among the most well-rounded golfers in this field as he ranks inside the top 25 in total strokes gained, strokes gained tee-to-green, strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green over the last three months. A multiple-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, it is time for the 34-year-old to raise a trophy on the PGA Tour.
J.J. Spaun To Win +4500
Last year’s Valero Texas Open winner may have found something at the Barracuda Championship with a T-10 result. This came on the heels of T-33 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and may be a sign of things to come as Spaun makes a push to stay within the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings.
He has not fared well at TPC Twin Cities, but that primarily has to do with poor approach numbers which are normalizing at the moment. Over the last three months, he ranks 19th in strokes gained tee-to-green, 14th in strokes gained approach and 20th in driving accuracy.
Ryan Palmer To Win +10000
The wily veteran is coming off a pair of missed cuts, but when panning out long term, Palmer’s metrics catch the eye. Highlighted by his T-8 finish at the Bryon Nelson, the Texan has quietly strung together a stretch of consistency.
Over the last three months, he ranks fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green, 10th in strokes gained off the tee and 10th in strokes gained approach. He finds himself inside the top 50 around the green and will just need a cooperative putter to threaten to win.
Tyler Duncan To Win +25000
Duncan can only contend on golf courses where accuracy is rewarded and TPC Twin Cities is one of those. It has been a poor season for the 34-year-old, but he has played some of his best golf on venues like the Arnold Palmer design.
He has third place finishes at both Corales Punta Cana and PGA National for the Honda Classic. He has gained strokes off the tee in four straight events and will be set up for success from the fairway on in.