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2021 3M Open Odds & Expert Picks

Matthew Wolff at the 18th green during the final round of the inaugural 3M Open.

Much to our dismay, the major season is officially over. A jam-packed schedule has come and gone, and while we do have the Olympics to look forward to next week, first we must discuss the 3M Open odds.

A relatively new event on the PGA Tour, the 2021 3M Open will be only the third edition of the Twin Cities tournament. It was here in 2019 that one of the more exciting endings to a tournament came to fruition. With Bryson DeChambeau in the clubhouse with a one-stroke lead, young studs Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa came to the 72nd hole needing birdies to match DeChambeau.

On a relatively short par 5, both would find the green in two and had fantastic looks for eagle. Wolff was first to go and poured in his putt from just off the green. With Morikawa narrowly missing his, Wolff captured the first and only PGA Tour title of his budding career.

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The 2020 3M Open was a bit more anticlimactic, but plenty of storylines still presented themselves. Michael Thompson was the eventual champion with Adam Long, Max Homa and others falling just short. However, there were two takeaways from the 2020 version of this tournament that had to do more so with two of the premier players in the game.

The 3M Open betting odds have been posted at Bovada with world No. 2 Dustin Johnson leading the way at +700, with an implied probability to win of 12.50 percent. If successful, a $100 bet on him would net you $700 profit. The clear class of the field, Johnson will need to hold off the likes of Tony Finau and Louis Oosthuizen.

2021 3M Open Betting Odds

Odds To Win The 2021 3M Open
Dustin Johnson+700
Louis Oosthuizen+1400
Tony Finau+1400
Patrick Reed+2000
Brian Harman+2800
Cameron Tringale+2800
Matthew Wolff+2800
Robert MacIntyre+2800
Sergio Garcia+3300
Bubba Watson+4000
Cam Davis+4000
Emiliano Grillo+4000
Hank Lebioda+4000
Keegan Bradley+4000
Rickie Fowler+4000
Doug Ghim+5000
Dylan Frittelli+5000
Jhonattan Vegas+5000
Lucas Herbert+5000
Luke List+5000
Maverick McNealy+5000
Brandt Snedeker+6600

Odds as of July 20 at Bovada

Can Tony Finau Finally Pick Up Win No. 2?

It was another close call for Finau in last year’s 3M Open. Winless since his lone victory at the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, Finau always comes to mind when discussing players who are heavily wagered on, yet rarely deliver. Could this finally be the spot where he breaks through for his first victory in the continental United States? According to the 3M Open odds, it very well could be, but I am still skeptical.

After a strong early half of the season that included a playoff loss to Homa at the Genesis Invitational, Finau’s game has been a mixed bag. In regular tour events, he’s struggled, failing to capture a top-10 finish since his outing at Riviera. However, on the big stage at the major championships, he’s thrived. A T-15 finish at Royal St. George’s last week marked his third top-15 finish in a major this season.

Potentially returning to form, this could be an ideal spot for Finau to not only capture his second career victory, but also solidify his Ryder Cup positioning as he currently ranks 12th in the Team USA standings.

Will the 2021 3M Open Serve as a Springboard for Dustin Johnson Like it Did in 2020?

Having posted back-to-back rounds of 80 at the Memorial the week before, Dustin Johnson came to Minnesota in 2020 looking to regain some form. That he did not, as he would card a first-round 78 and withdraw not long after. However, from there, the floodgates opened, as Johnson put together one of the most impressive fall seasons in recent memory.

After a T-12 at the WGC FedEx St. Jude’s to get his feet beneath him, Johnson reeled off an impressive stretch of golf. In his next seven starts, he would post three victories and three runner-up finishes, with his worst outing coming at the 2020 U.S. Open where he finished in a tie for sixth.

Having failed to recapture such magic in 2021, it begs the question, could this year’s 3M Open serve as a similar springboard for Johnson heading into the FedExCup playoffs? With him sitting atop the 3M Open odds, bookmakers believe it’s very much a possibility.

Course and Analysis:

TPC Twin Cities will play host to the 2021 3M Open for the third straight year. Like most stops on the PGA Tour, birdies will be abundant as the past winning scores have been 21 under in 2019 and 19 under in 2020. An Arnold Palmer design, this TPC network course stretches to just about 7,450 yards and plays to a par 71.

While this week may leave something to be desired, whether player-wise or 3M Open odds-wise, TPC Twin Cities should still provide good theater. Both editions of this tournament have come down to the back nine on Sunday. It’s getting to that point in the tournament that we are concerned with as both of the previous winners have left somewhat of a blueprint on how to succeed in the Twin Cities.

First and foremost, both winners weren’t the greatest short-game players, so immediately those varying statistics such as Strokes Gained: Around the Green and scrambling can be turned down a notch. While those will be underweighted, iron play and putting will be emphasized. In typical birdie-fest fashion, those two aspects of the game tend to be the most important.

While Wolff would be classified as a bomber, Thompson is quite the opposite. However, similarities lie in how they attacked the par 4s as both were near the top in scoring on those particular holes. With this in mind, and after dissecting the 2021 3M Open odds, we’ll target those players who are strong on approach, can catch a hot putter and have the ability to make birdies in bunches.

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2021 3M Open Expert Picks:

Matthew Wolff (+2800 to win):

Well, we just highlighted him and based on his recent play, I’ll gladly jump on the Wolff wagon as he has had more than his fair share of success at TPC Twin Cities. In two appearances, Wolff not only captured his first PGA Tour title in 2019 but put up a solid defense as he came in a tie for 12th in 2020. After taking a couple months away from the game to work on himself from a mental health perspective, he looks refreshed and ready to start contending again.

A strong outing at the U.S. Open surprised many as he posted +4.4 Strokes Gained: Putting en route to a top-15 finish. He has since backed it up with a made cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he never really competed, finishing just inside the top 60.

Still, this feels like a great spot for him. Potentially inspired by the play of Morikawa at the Open, Wolff has all the tools to disassemble TPC Twin Cities. Long off the tee, a strong iron player and a streaky putter, he can pile up birdies with the best of them. If he can avoid the big mistakes, which he is prone to make, these 3M Open odds will feel like a steal by week’s end.

Hank Lebioda (+5000 to win):

What a summer it has been for the former Florida State Seminole. After a strong outing at the Valspar Championship, Lebioda has since captured three top-10s in a row, two of which have doubled as top-fives. Riding a scorching-hot putter, this could be a dangerous spot where the best of his golf is behind him, but I’m willing to wager it isn’t and that he’ll continue to ride the recent form.

TPC Twin Cities does have similar features to courses where Lebioda has enjoyed his recent success. TPC River Highlands and Innisbrook require a similar skill set that is needed at this Arnold Palmer design, which only helps Lebioda’s case.

As a strong iron player and an even stronger putter, the statistical profile we compiled at the top points to Lebioda. Over the last two months, he leads the field in SG: Par 4s and SG: Putting, as well as ranking inside the top 15 in a slew of other categories. That’s enough for me considering his 3M Open betting odds.

Stewart Cink (+6600 to win):

A strong first-round effort at the Open was followed up with a collapse on Friday. Though he took an early flight home to the United States, I’m willing to overlook a poor 18 from Cink. A two-time winner on the tour this season, you have to wonder if he has anything left in the tank. With the Ryder Cup looming, I am sure it is on his mind as this is likely his last opportunity to play on such a team.

It’s a long shot, sure, with the likes of Finau, Simpson, Kokrak and company battling it out for the last couple of spots on the team. But Cink would like nothing more than to muddy the waters a bit and make the decision for Steve Stricker all the more difficult.

Cink’s been one of the best iron players on the tour this season. More often than not, he’s gaining +4.5 strokes on approach in a tournament but is held back by his short game. With that part of the bag mitigated in a sense this week at TPC Twin Cities, he’ll just need to get the flat stick rolling, which he is more than capable of doing.

Jhonattan Vegas (+6600 to win):

For the sake of keeping with the theme of 2021 and having past winners find their way back into the winner’s circle, there may be no better candidate this week than Vegas. Having played his way into the weekend in seven consecutive outings, Vegas has been close to breaking through a number of times.

A runner-up finish at the Palmetto Championship was due to a costly three-putt late in his back nine on Sunday. He was in the mix again a couple weeks ago at the John Deere Classic but stumbled a bit, finishing in a tie for 11th. Now he comes to the 3M Open where he missed the cut last season in his debut appearance.

Playing exceptionally well tee to green, the lack of short-game prowess needed around this property should only lift Vegas higher. A boom-or-bust option on the greens, he will need to boom in order to contend. But if he does, it’s highly likely he’ll be there come Sunday and that’s all you can ask for someone at these 3M Open odds.

Chez Reavie (+8000 to win):

Our last selection will side with Reavie as he has connected on the weekend in five of his last six starts. After an abysmal start to the season that saw him miss six cuts in a row, it appears he has turned the corner. Coming off a decent showing at the Open and a strong appearance at the John Deere Classic, he should come to the Twin Cities with plenty of confidence.

He’s been exquisite tee to green over the past couple of months, including performances of +8.7 SG: Tee to Green and +7.8 SG: Tee to Green at the Palmetto Championship and the U.S. Open. Making his debut in the 3M Open, that type of play should hold up well enough.

Reavie’s week will come down to the putter. If he struggles, he’ll fall to the top-30 or top-40 range. However, if this is a week where he spikes and makes putts fall from every which way, similar to his performance at the John Deere, then he could be a factor.