Jan Blachowicz returns to the Octagon for the first time since losing his UFC light heavyweight crown when he takes on Aleksandar Rakic on Saturday in the main event in UFC Fight Night action.
UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs Rakic will take place on Saturday, May 14, with prelims set to get underway at 7:30 p.m. ET. Blachowicz opens the week trailing Rakic as an underdog on the UFC Fight Night odds.
You can check out UFC odds among other betting markets at Sportsbook:
Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksandar Rakic Notes
In addition to costing him the UFC light heavyweight title, Blachowicz’s loss to Glover Teixeira at UFC 267 also marked his first defeat in six fights since February 2019 and his first loss by submission since 2007.
Rakic has been idle since extending his current win streak to two fights with a unanimous-decision victory over Thiago Santos at UFC 259 in March 2021.
Blachowicz vs Rakic Odds
Online sportsbook Sportsbook has published a full slate of Blachowicz vs Rakic odds. Rakic has emerged as a clear favorite, sporting -210 odds, while the former champion lags as a +165 underdog. That means you must wager $210 on Rakic to generate winnings of $100, while a successful $100 bet on Blachowicz will produce $165 in winnings.
Rakic’s short odds translate to an implied win probability of 67.74 percent, while Blachowicz’s odds represent an implied win probability of just 37.74 percent according to our sports betting calculator.
UFC sports betting fans searching for the biggest underdog on the UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs Rakic odds will have to get a head start on the evening’s hostilities, as Andre Petroski clashes with Nick Maximov in a middleweight clash to open the prelims as a +280 underdog.
The tightest odds can be found on the final fight of the evening’s prelim card. Andrea Lee is pegged as slender -130 chalk in her women’s flyweight clash with Viviane Araujo, who trails closely as a +100 bet.
The lightweight bout between Manuel Torres (-130) vs Frank Camacho (+100) matches the women as the fight with the tightest odds.
Blachowicz vs Rakic Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Light Heavyweight – Jan Blachowicz (+165) vs Aleksandar Rakic (-210)
- Light Heavyweight – Ryan Spann (+190) vs Ion Cutelaba (-240)
- Bantamweight – Davey Grant (-300) vs Louis Smolka (+220)
- Women’s Flyweight – Katlyn Chookagian (-180) vs Amanda Ribas (+150)
- Lightweight – Frank Camacho (+100) vs Manuel Torres (-130)
- Flyweight – Jake Hadley (-230) vs Allan Nascimento (+180)
- Prelims
- Women’s Flyweight – Viviane Araujo (+100) vs Andrea Lee (-130)
- Lightweight – Michael Johnson (-150) vs Alan Patrick (+120)
- Women’s Strawweight – Virna Jandiroba (-200) vs Angela Hill (+160)
- Flyweight – Tatsuro Taira (-300) vs Carlos Candelario (+220)
- Middleweight – Nick Maximov (-380) vs Andre Petroski (+280)
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- Date/Time: Saturday, May 14, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN/ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs Rakic Best Bets
We have work to do to rebound after going 2-2 with our best bets last weekend at UFC 274 after going a perfect 4-0 a week earlier at UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs Andrade. Now is the time to build some momentum again with our best bets for UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs Rakic, including picks for the main event.
Main Event Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jan Blachowicz | +165 |
| Aleksandar Rakic | -210 |
Jan Blachowicz (+165) is coming off a stunning upset defeat last time out. However, the former champion will still enter the Octagon on Saturday night perched as the No. 1 contender in the UFC light heavyweight division.
Aleksandr Rakic (-210) has managed to maintain control of the No. 3 spot in the light heavyweight rankings despite fighting just once over the past 21 months.
- Blachowicz struggled enormously to defend against a superior ground game while losing his title to Glover Teixeira at UFC 267. The 39-year-old spent most of the fight’s eight total minutes on the mat, controlled by Glover.
- He has now lost inside three rounds in two of his past seven outings after being finished by an opponent just once in 25 outings over the previous 12 years.
- Blachowicz’s loss to Teixeira came while sporting lofty -265 odds. However, the native of Poland is far more accustomed to entering the Octagon as an underdog. He had been tagged with positive odds in nine of his 10 previous fights, suffering only one defeat over that stretch.
- Despite struggling to stay on his feet in his most recent date with Teixeira, Blachowicz remains a tough man to take down. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has successfully defended against 65 percent of takedown attempts over his UFC career.
- Blachowicz’s real strength can be found in his punching power. He finished opponents on punches on three occasions during the recent five-fight win streak that vaulted him to the top of the UFC light heavyweight division, and ranks seventh among 205 pounders in career significant strikes landed.
- Blachowicz’s last three fights were Glover Teixeira (loss – submission), Israel Adesanya (win – unanimous decision) and Dominick Reyes (win – TKO punches).
- Unlike his workhorse opponent, Rakic will be entering the Octagon for just the third time since suffering his lone UFC defeat at the hands of Volkan Oezdemir in December 2019.
- Rakic has enjoyed the consistent backing of oddsmakers since joining the UFC in 2017. He has been pegged as the favorite in each of his seven previous UFC clashes and has averaged impressive -286 odds over his past five contests.
- The 30-year-old Austrian has seen five of seven fights since joining the UFC ultimately get decided by the judges, earning the win on four occasions. However, Rakic has yet to see action in championship rounds in 16 overall fights as a pro.
- Rakic developed a reputation as a speedy finisher early in his career, finishing opponents with TKOs or KOs on punches inside five minutes in six of his first nine professional fights.
- He also has a pair of first-round finishes to his credit since joining the UFC, including a spectacular KO win over Jimi Manuwa at UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Smith that earned him his first and only Performance of the Night bonus to date.
- Rakic’s last three fights were Thiago Santos (win – unanimous decision), Anthony Smith (win – unanimous decision) and Volkan Oezdemir (loss – split decision).
Prediction: Jan Blachowicz (+165); UNDER 4.5 rounds (-140)
Ryan Spann vs Ion Cutelaba Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | +190 |
| Ion Cutelaba | -240 |
Light heavyweights will also capture the spotlight in the co-main event of the evening as Ion Cutelaba aims to win two in a row for the first time since 2018 in his date with Ryan Spann. Cutelaba (-240) earned a unanimous-decision win over Devin Clark last time out at UFC Vegas 37.
Spann (+190) suffered a first-round submission loss to Anthony Smith in the main event on that night and has now been finished inside five minutes in two of his past three fights.
- Spann has now seen each of his past three fights end in the first round, including a sensational TKO win over Misha Cirkunov at UFC Vegas 21 that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.
- The former LFA light heavyweight champion has produced streaky results throughout his career. He followed up a dismal 2-4 run with eight straight wins, including five finishes, before struggling during his current 1-2 swoon.
- “Superman” has finished opponents inside five minutes on 14 occasions during his career, but he has also had his night ended in the first round on four occasions.
- Spann’s last three fights were Anthony Smith (loss – submission), Misha Cirkunov (win – TKO punches) and Johnny Walker (loss – KO elbows and punches).
- Wins have been rare for “The Hulk.” Cutelaba’s recent win over Devin Clark is just his second victory in his past six outings, and only the second win by decision so far in his pro MMA career.
- A dominant power puncher early in his career, Cutelaba came out on the wrong end of first-round knockouts in consecutive dates with Magomed Ankalaev in 2020. However, the 28-year-old southpaw dominated toe to toe and on the mat vs Clark, landing 63 percent of significant strikes and successfully executing eight of 12 takedown attempts.
- The Hulk has gone 4-0-1 in his past five outings as betting chalk. He also has earned one career Fight of the Night bonus, in a losing effort against Jared Cannonier at the The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale in December 2016.
- Cutelaba’s last three fights were Devin Clark (win – unanimous decision), Dustin Jacoby (draw – split decision) and Magomed Ankalaev (loss – knockout on punches).
Prediction: Ion Cutelaba (-240); OVER 1.5 rounds (+110)
Katlyn Chookagian vs Amanda Ribas Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Katlyn Chookagian | -180 |
| Amanda Ribas | +150 |
Katlyn Chookagian (-180) has emerged as the No. 1 contender in the UFC women’s flyweight rankings during a three-fight win streak. “Blonde Fighter” now aims to make a case for a second shot at the title as she takes on Amanda Ribas (+150), who is bidding to remain undefeated in three all-time clashes as a flyweight.
- Chookagian used her superior punching power to earn unanimous-decision wins in each of her past three outings.
- Blonde Fighter sits alongside current champion Valentina Shevchenko with eight career wins as a UFC women’s flyweight, with each of those victories coming by unanimous decision.
- Chookagian has seen 14 of her career wins come via a nod from the judges. Two of her four career defeats have come by split decision, with her two TKO losses coming against Shevchenko and recent Fight Night Sportsbook Jessica Andrade.
- Chookagian’s last three fights were Jennifer Maia (win – unanimous decision), Viviane Araujo (win – unanimous decision) and Cynthia Calvillo (win – unanimous decision).
- Ribas turned in a sensational performance in her UFC women’s flyweight debut, ending Paige VanZant’s night by submission just 2:21 into their clash at UFC 251 while sporting huge -700 odds.
- She has produced mixed results in two subsequent outings as a strawweight, falling by second-round TKO to current No. 3 contender Marina Rodriguez at UFC 257 before claiming the unanimous decision in her UFC 267 clash with Virna Jandiroba.
- In addition to her exceptional takedown abilities, Ribas has also landed an average of 4.65 significant strikes per minute in UFC action.
- Ribas’ last three fights were Virna Jandiroba (win – unanimous decision), Marina Rodriguez (loss – TKO elbow and punches) and Paige VanZant (win – submission armbar).
