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Edwards vs Diaz Odds & Prediction: Will Edwards Get his Title Shot?

Leon Edwards (left) is favored in the Edwards vs Diaz odds at UFC 262.

Once again Nate Diaz is creating more change in the UFC as he takes on Leon Edwards in the first-ever five-round non-title co-main event at UFC 263. The pay-per-view will be headlined by a pair of title fights – first the flyweight championship fight between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno, then Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori 2 in the main event for the middleweight title.

Diaz was also part of the first-ever (perhaps only) BMF title fight when he lost to Jorge Masvidal. Looking at Edwards vs Diaz odds, though, Nate is a large underdog with Leon favored to extend his nine-fight unbeaten streak. UFC 263 is taking place on June 12 at the Gila River Arena in Phoenix, Arizona, once again in front of a full-capacity crowd.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the Edwards vs Diaz odds with Leon listed at -525 and Nate coming back as a +365 underdog. This means you would have to bet $525 to profit $100 with an Edwards win, while a $100 bet on Diaz would profit you $365.

Edwards vs Diaz Odds

Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Leon Edwards-525
Nate Diaz+365

Odds as of June 9 from Bovada

Using our sports betting calculator, the Edwards vs Diaz odds tell us that Leon’s odds of -525 represent an implied win probability of 84.00 percent, while Nate’s +365 betting line has an implied win probability of 21.51 percent.

See Odds Shark’s Best UFC Sites

Not familiar with betting on the fights? Be sure to check out our How to Bet UFC betting guide to help you get in the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date Edwards vs Diaz betting odds.

Edwards vs Diaz Odds Analysis

You should not be surprised to see Nate Diaz as an underdog considering that has been the norm for him in recent memory. In fact, the last time Diaz was the chalk was in April 2013 when he was knocked out by Josh Thomson. He has been in seven fights since then and was the plus-money option each time. This is the largest number he has seen, surpassing the +350 betting line when he beat Conor McGregor in 2016.

Shortest-ever odds for Edwards

While the odds for this fight aren’t uncharted territory for Nate, the -525 betting line for Leon represents the most he’s ever been favored by. Edwards’ last defeat was to current champion Kamaru Usman in 2015 by unanimous decision. Since then, “Rocky” is 8-0 with one no contest and has been the chalk in all but two of those bouts.

Edwards vs Diaz Preview

Starting with Diaz, you don’t get to fight for the BMF belt if you aren’t a BMF! Nate will mean-mug and taunt his opponents whether he’s winning or losing. If they take a step backward, he sees it as a sign of weakness and will walk toward them with his hands down. If they enter his range, he gives them the “Stockton Slap” and then usually says “I just slapped you.”

Diaz can be a bit of a punching bag, as he continually walks into striking range begging to exchange hands but without setting up his entries. However, his conditioning and pace with this style of forward pressure weighs on his counterparts and as they start to fade, he will put together combinations that exhaust them. Additionally, his jiu-jitsu skills are off the charts, training with the likes of Kron Gracie – many of his foes don’t want to go to the floor with him.

How Much has Edwards Improved?

There aren’t many fighters that were impacted more negatively by the pandemic than Edwards, who was held out of competition from July 2019 until his return to the cage in March of this year. Perhaps compounding the issue was that his most recent fight ended in a no contest due to an accidental eye poke in the second round.

The southpaw is very well-rounded and has really developed in front of our eyes, having been in the UFC for seven years and still just 29 years old. Rocky is a little conservative in his output at just 2.56 significant strikes per minute but he sets those shots up very well and he’s effective when he does throw, with six of his 18 pro wins coming by knockout.

Edwards vs Diaz: Final Thoughts

This is likely the fight Leon Edwards needs to get his title shot – a big name that he should piece up and dominate. I stress the word “should” because if you take Nate Diaz lightly, he can definitely catch you and if you don’t get rid of him early in the fight, he’s going to pour it on from rounds 3 to 5. Additionally, Rocky likes to grapple, securing 15 takedowns over his last eight bouts, but as I mentioned above, Diaz’s submission skills are very real and dangerous.

All that said, I expect Edwards to fight smart, set up his shots and likely put Diaz away.

Prediction: Leon Edwards (-525) via knockout