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UFC: Aldo vs McGregor Line History

Jose Aldo Conor McGregor

Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor will finally meet for an epic clash almost a year in the making. These two fighters have spent months throwing verbal haymakers at one another and at UFC 194 they will finally meet in the Octagon to determine who the best featherweight on the planet is.

For those who don’t remember, this fight was supposed to happen in July at UFC 189, but an injury forced Aldo off the card.

Fight Preview

Aldo is considered by many to be the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Aldo has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-jitsu and Luta Livre (a unique hybrid of wrestling and judo), but his striking may be the most intriguing part of his game. The striking game of Aldo is built around the jab and the leg kick, which sounds basic, but the power and ferocity in which he strikes is unparalleled.

McGregor has brought a unique style of fighting with him to the Octagon. ‘The Notorious’ McGregor’s stance is erect with his lead hand and leg far in front of his body. This stance could leave him susceptible to leg kicks, but could help him avoid the lethal jab.

McGregor tends to be the type of fighter to take a punch to give a punch, with Aldo generally fighting a more conservative style that sees him make it to a decision more than his opponent.

Ultimately, this is a fight between two fighters with contrasting styles and it could be the man who forces the other into fighting from uncomfortable positions that walks away as the champion.

Line History

The line originally hit the board all the way back on January 20, only two days after McGregor defeated Dennis Siver and confronted Aldo. That opening line had McGregor as a +145 underdog at Bovada, but it slowly creped towards EVEN as the original fight date approached and by May 24, McGregor was the favorite. On June 23 reports started surfacing that Aldo suffered an injury, but it was one week later that ‘Scarface’ was officially pulled from the card.

Between the reports of an Aldo injury and his official pulling out of the UFC 189 card, McGregor went from -105 to -150.

The lines closed after Chad Mendes replaced Aldo on the card. Only two days after UFC 189, which saw McGregor claim the interim featherweight title, the line hit the board once again at -105. Since that posting, McGregor has seen that number become more and more inflated with ‘The Notorious One’ as high as -185.

By the Thursday before the event, lines had almost completely flipped around with McGregor down to -130 and Aldo sitting at EVEN money.

Prop Bets

When a fight this big comes along there will be prop bets for damn near every possible outcome.

The fight is favored to end before it makes it to the judges’ scorecard, with a prop that there will be a stoppage finish a -260 favorite at 5Dimes. In McGregor’s 20 career fights only one has ever made it the distance and that was a three-round affair against Max Holloway in August, 2013. Aldo on the other hand has gone to the scorecards nine times in 26 career fights, including five of his seven fights in the UFC going a full five rounds.

Possibly the most interesting prop at 5Dimes is McGregor winning via T/KO vs any other result. The McGregor winning by T/KO prop is currently listed at +140 with any other result being listed at -185. With those two lines being so close and with more money sure to come in before the fight, they could easily end up even closer or with a huge discrepancy. 

UFC 194 – Featherweight 5 Rounds – Conor McGregor vs Jose Aldo

Odds as of December 11 at 5Dimes

  • Conor McGregor -115
  • Jose Aldo -105
  • Aldo/McGregor goes 5 round distance +200
  • Aldo/McGregor does not goes 5 round distance -260
  • Aldo wins by 5 round unanimous decision +345
  • Any other result -470
  • McGregor wins by TKO/KO +145
  • Any other result -185
  • Aldo/McGregor starts round 4 +118
  • Aldo/McGregor won’t start round 4 -148

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