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Budding UFC superstar Khamzat Chimaev is favored in the Chimaev vs Diaz odds

Some exciting news dropped July 19 when it was first reported the UFC is targeting a five-round welterweight main event between Khamzat Chimaev (11-0) and Nate Diaz (20-13) for UFC 279 in September. 

Diaz has been very outspoken about having one more fight on his UFC contract, previously criticizing president Dana White for “holding (him) hostage” with disputes over salary and opponents. It appears that’s all been put aside, as the Chimaev vs Diaz bout has been verbally agreed to.

Bodog has released the Chimaev vs Diaz odds and they are incredibly lopsided, with “The Wolf” opening as a -1600 favorite, leaving Diaz as the +800 underdog.

In his potential UFC swan song, the California native will have one more fearsome opponent to face in Chimaev before potentially ditching mixed martial arts for a lucrative boxing match with Jake Paul.

Khamzat Chimaev vs Nate Diaz Betting Odds

Chimaev vs Diaz Odds
Khamzat Chimaev-1600
Nate Diaz+800

Odds as of July 21 via Bodog

Looking at the Chimaev vs Diaz odds, our sports betting calculator tells us Chimaev’s -1600 odds represent a whopping implied win probability of 94.12 percent. Diaz’s +800 odds earn him an 11.11 percent chance to win. That means a successful $10 bet on Chimaev pays out a meager $10.63, whereas the same wager on Diaz would pay out $90.

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Khamzat Chimaev vs Nate Diaz Betting Odds Analysis

In all five of Chimaev’s UFC fights, he has been the favorite, but never by as much as he is now against Diaz (-1600). At UFC Fight Island 3, he faced Rhys McKee as -1400 chalk. The Chechen played up to his billing, blasting the Irishman with constant ground attacks and out-striking him 68-0 on the way to a first-round finish.

Chimaev has only improved since then, most recently withstanding a grueling test against Gilbert Burns at UFC 273, winning by decision in a fight he entered as the -550 favorite. 

Diaz, a 15-year UFC veteran, rolls into the bout as a +800 underdog, representing by far the steepest odds of his career. The southpaw last fought Leon Edwards at UFC 263, entering as a +350 underdog, tied for the second-biggest ‘dog status of his career (the other is +350 at UFC 196 against Conor McGregor). After losing to Edwards by decision, the 37-year-old is on a two-fight losing skid. 

Chimaev vs Diaz Preview: Expect The Best Version of Khamzat

Pressure, wrestling, strength, endurance — all those tools were on display in Chimaev’s last fight vs Gilbert Burns at UFC 273. For the first time in his UFC career, his opponent pushed him past the second round and all the way to a decision, but Khamzat stood tall. 

The six-foot-two fighter switched stances, ripped off fluid combos and creatively punched his way to a decision victory against a top-of-the-line contender in Burns. Even when the Brazilian rocked him, he bounced back without panicking, demonstrating a willingness to continue trading blows.

It’s rare to see a fighter as young as Chimaev have such polished intangibles combined with a devastating physical profile. The 28-year-old is a true UFC superstar in the making. Coming off a war vs Burns, he should be in peak form, both mentally and physically, which will be deadly for the older, less physically fit Diaz. 

How Does Diaz Go Out?

There’s no denying Diaz has had a thrilling UFC career, but for a guy who’s won just one fight in the last six years, there are concerns about motivation and work ethic heading into what’s likely his final bout in the UFC. 

Nate, like his older brother Nick, has always carried a mercurial temperament into the Octagon. It’s a dice roll as to which version of Nate we see at UFC 279. Will Diaz stay active with his rangy strikes and perhaps even make use of his underrated wrestling and jiu-jitsu game? Or will Stockton’s Own keep the trash talk high and the output low, perhaps as one final “screw you” to Uncle Dana for his contractual mess?

In his last fight vs Edwards, Diaz rocked the Englishman in the fifth round. Ever the showman, Nate decided to point at Edwards instead of engaging. It will be interesting to observe Diaz’s in-fight attitude vs Chimaev, even if it is a one-sided bout, nonetheless.

Chimaev vs Diaz Betting Pick

Diaz is being fed to The Wolf, quite literally. Chimaev is like a freight train when he picks his line and puts the heat on opponents in the cage. There’s a strong chance Diaz, who’s fought off his heels recently, is overwhelmed by this pressure almost immediately.

Nate is outgunned in size, strength, striking and grappling. Chimaev is a beast of a fighter who promised to “handle Nate Diaz’s funeral with the UFC.” We’re inclined to believe him, trusting he will finish Diaz early in the bout. 

Bet On Chimaev vs Diaz Odds Here

Pick: Chimaev (-1600) by KO/TKO in Round 1 (TBD)