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UFC: McGregor vs Gaethje Odds Analysis

Conor McGregor acknowledges crowd ahead of fight with Donald Cerrone

Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje appears to have a decision to make.

After winning the interim lightweight title with a fifth-round knockout win over Tony Ferguson at UFC 249, Gaethje could take on the current champion, Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov, for the actual lightweight strap. Or, the Arizona product could forgo a title fight and take a huge money fight and a dance with the Irishman, Conor “Notorious” McGregor.

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Online sportsbook BetOnline has released odds for this potential bout, making McGregor the -175 favorite with Gaethje coming back at +150.

Conor McGregor vs Justin Gaethje Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Conor McGregor-175
Justin Gaethje+150

Odds as of May 12 at BetOnline

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Why Would It Be McGregor vs Gaethje?

Five of the six events with the highest PPV buys had Conor McGregor on the marquee so indeed a fight with him equals a major payday and as he calls it “red panty night.” Many believed that after Gaethje beat Ferguson, he would move on to fight Khabib, but Conor took to social media to fire at the current interim champion, which opens the door for this potential scrap.

The comments regarding McGregor’s parental skills date back to last September when Gaethje took a shot at the former “champ champ.”

Obviously, there is some hatred between these two competitors which could result in a major main event perhaps at Fight Island, while Nurmagomedov would have to wait on the sideline for his next foe.

McGregor vs Gaethje Odds Analysis

Despite having a title draped around his waist and not only beating but stopping the boogeyman of the division, Ferguson, Gaethje is coming in as an underdog in this potential bout. Having a plus sign next to his odds is nothing new for The Highlight, though, as he has been an underdog in five of his seven UFC bouts and holds a record of 5-2 in those scraps. He is currently on a four-fight winning streak.

Looking at Conor McGregor’s betting history, he has been a favorite, and a sizable one at that, in 10 of his 12 UFC fights and holds a record of 8-2 in those bouts. He returned to the cage in January following a 15-month layoff and completely walked through Donald Cerrone, needing just 40 seconds to earn the knockout victory – living up to the -325 line that was set for him in that bout.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Notorious is known for his pinpoint striking accuracy, baiting his opponents with his long stance and firing powerful strikes when they engage with him. His southpaw style can take some time to adjust to but time is often limited as 16 of his 26 fights have been ended in the first round. Overall, McGregor’s footwork, striking and game planning have enabled him to win two titles and become a feared opponent.

While McGregor has pinpoint striking, Gaethje is more of a brawler-type fighter, willing to take a shot to land a shot. No fear is what you get from The Highlight as he gets in the face of his foes, exchanging powerful leg kicks and punches and absolutely loving every moment of it.

Many talk about Gaethje’s wrestling credentials as a former NCAA D-1 All-American and two-time Arizona state champion, but we never see it. In fact, he has landed exactly zero takedowns through his seven-fight UFC career. Gaethje has an overall record of 22-2, including 19 knockout wins, one submission win and two knockout losses.

One of the biggest factors in McGregor fights has been his mind games before the bout, which has resulted in many opponents crumbling under the pressure. The ones who have pushed past that, notably Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov, looked more comfortable and caused some issues for Notorious.

I think Gaethje would fit into that category too – he just loves to fight. McGregor would definitely have a speed advantage, but if The Highlight can absorb some of the punishment, survive and create a dogfight, he has the chance to pull off yet another upset.