Cam Spencer's Huskies are featured in the March Madness Bracket Analysis

March Madness Bracket Analysis: Is UConn a Smart Bet to Repeat?

The Midwest is ripe for upsets, the West could come down to a high-powered showdown between North Carolina and Arizona, and the South looks like a Houston-hued red carpet all the way to the Final Four. And as for the East? Let’s just say no top overall seed in recent memory has had a regional path strewn with as many landmines as Connecticut faces this year.

The defending champion Huskies remain the favorite in the March Madness odds to cut down the nets again on April 8 in Glendale, Ariz., and sportsbooks so love their body of work that UConn is a negative moneyline bet (-120) to make the Final Four. But goodness, will they have to work to get there. The East is so loaded that the tournament favorites are also the most likely No. 1 seed to not survive their own region, making the Huskies a vexing prospect for sports bettors on the eve of March Madness.

Connecticut has been the odds favorite to win the national championship for weeks now, and it’s easy to see why: the Huskies roll into this tournament having won seven straight and 21 of their last 22, dispatching their closest competitor in the Big East (Marquette) three times over that span and hammering opponents by an average of 17.1 points per game. While other top regional seeds stumbled in their respective conference tournaments, the Huskies just kept on rolling.

And their reward is—this? The East features 10 conference tournament champions, at least four more than any other region, so basically everyone is coming in hot. That group includes not just the Big East tournament champion Huskies, but also SEC champ Auburn, Big 10 champ Illinois, and Big 12 champ Iowa State. Of the top 10 teams at KenPom.com, four are in the East. So are three of the top six teams in the NCAA’s NET rankings. So are eight of the tournament’s top 20 teams in against-the-spread performance.

Odds To Win College Basketball - National Champion 2024-25
TeamsOdds
Auburn Tigers+375
Duke Blue Devils+400
Houston Cougars+900
Alabama Crimson Tide+1100
Iowa State Cyclones+1100
Florida Gators+1600
Tennessee Volunteers+1600
Kentucky Wildcats+2800
Michigan State Spartans+2800
Illinois Fighting Illini+3300
Kansas Jayhawks+3300
Marquette Golden Eagles+3300
Arizona Wildcats+4000
Connecticut Huskies+4000
Gonzaga Bulldogs+4000
Michigan Wolverines+4000
Purdue Boilermakers+4000
St. John's Red Storm+4000
Texas Tech Red Raiders+4000
Texas A&M Aggies+5000
Mississippi State Bulldogs+6000
Creighton Bluejays+7000
Louisville Cardinals+7000
Oregon Ducks+7000
Mississippi - Ole Miss Rebels+8000
Baylor Bears+10000
Georgia Bulldogs+10000
Maryland Terrapins+10000
Memphis Tigers+10000
Missouri Tigers+10000
Wisconsin Badgers+10000
Clemson Tigers+12500
Texas Longhorns+12500
UCLA Bruins+12500
North Carolina Tar Heels+15000
Ohio State Buckeyes+15000
Oklahoma Sooners+15000
Pittsburgh Panthers+15000
Saint Mary's-California Gaels+15000
West Virginia Mountaineers+15000
Xavier Musketeers+15000
Arkansas Razorbacks+20000
Boise State Broncos+20000
BYU Cougars+20000
Cincinnati Bearcats+20000
Dayton Flyers+20000
San Diego State Aztecs+20000
Utah State Aggies+20000
Vanderbilt Commodores+20000
VCU Rams+20000
Villanova Wildcats+20000
Penn State Nittany Lions+25000
Rutgers Scarlet Knights+25000
Indiana Hoosiers+30000
Miami Hurricanes+30000
Notre Dame Fighting Irish+30000
Seton Hall Pirates+30000
Southern Methodist Mustangs+30000
Stanford Cardinal+30000
Georgetown University Hoyas+35000
Iowa Hawkeyes+35000
South Carolina Gamecocks+35000
Wake Forest Demon Deacons+35000
Nevada Wolf Pack+40000
New Mexico Lobos+40000
North Carolina State Wolfpack+40000
Northwestern Wildcats+40000
Princeton Tigers+40000
Providence Friars+40000
TCU Horned Frogs+40000
Washington Huskies+40000
Arizona State Sun Devils+50000
Boston College Eagles+50000
Butler Bulldogs+50000
California Golden Bears+50000
Central Florida Knights+50000
Colorado Buffaloes+50000
Colorado State Rams+50000
Davidson Wildcats+50000
DePaul Blue Demons+50000
Drake Bulldogs+50000
Florida Atlantic Owls+50000
Florida State Seminoles+50000
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets+50000
Grand Canyon Antelopes+50000
Indiana State Sycamores+50000
Kansas State Wildcats+50000
Loyola-Chicago Ramblers+50000
LSU Tigers+50000
McNeese State Cowboys+50000
Nebraska Cornhuskers+50000
Saint Louis Billikens+50000
Samford Bulldogs+50000
San Francisco Dons+50000
South Florida Bulls+50000
Syracuse Orange+50000
UAB Blazers+50000
UNLV Runnin' Rebels+50000
USC Trojans+50000
Utah Runnin' Utes+50000
Washington State Cougars+50000
Akron Zips+75000
Duquesne Dukes+75000
James Madison Dukes+75000
Minnesota Golden Gophers+75000
Murray State Racers+75000
New Mexico State Aggies+75000
North Texas Mean Green+75000
Oakland Golden Grizzlies+75000
Oklahoma State Cowboys+75000
Oregon State Beavers+75000
South Dakota State Jackrabbits+75000
Virginia Cavaliers+75000
Virginia Tech Hokies+75000
Wichita State Shockers+75000
Wyoming Cowboys+75000
Youngstown State Penguins+75000
Belmont Bruins+100000
Bucknell Bison+100000
Charleston Southern Buccaneers+100000
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights+100000
Fresno State Bulldogs+100000
Furman Paladins+100000
Montana State Bobcats+100000
Morehead State Eagles+100000
Northern Kentucky Norse+100000
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles+100000
Richmond Spiders+100000
Saint Peter's Peacocks+100000
Santa Clara Broncos+100000
St. Bonaventure Bonnies+100000
UC Riverside Highlanders+100000
UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos+100000
Vermont Catamounts+100000
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers+100000
Yale Bulldogs+100000
Colgate Raiders+150000
Hofstra Pride+150000
Howard Bison+150000
Long Beach State+150000
Longwood Lancers+150000
Sam Houston State Bearkats+150000
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks+150000
Stetson Hatters+150000
Texas Southern Tigers+150000
UNC Asheville Bulldogs+150000
Grambling State Tigers+200000
Iona Gaels+200000
Kennesaw State Owls+200000
Kent State Golden Flashes+200000
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders+200000
Wagner Seahawks+200000
Abilene Christian Wildcats- -
Air Force Falcons- -
Alabama A&M Bulldogs- -
Alabama State Hornets- -
Albany Great Danes- -
Alcorn State Braves- -
American Eagles- -
Appalachian State Mountaineers- -
Arkansas State Red Wolves- -
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans- -
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions- -
Army Black Knights- -
Austin Peay Governors- -
Ball State Cardinals- -
Bellarmine Knights- -
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats- -
Binghamton Bearcats- -
Boston University Terriers- -
Bowling Green Falcons- -
Bradley Braves- -
Brown Bears- -
Bryant Bulldogs- -
Buffalo Bulls- -
Cal Poly Mustangs- -
Cal State-Bakersfield Roadrunners- -
Cal State-Fullerton Titans- -
Cal State-Northridge Matadors- -
Campbell Fighting Camels- -
Canisius Golden Griffins- -
Central Arkansas Bears- -
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils- -
Central Michigan Chippewas- -
Charlotte 49ers- -
Chattanooga Mocs- -
Chicago State Cougars- -
Cleveland State Vikings- -
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers- -
College of Charleston Cougars- -
Columbia Lions- -
Coppin State Eagles- -
Cornell Big Red- -
Dartmouth Big Green- -
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens- -
Delaware State Hornets- -
Denver Pioneers- -
Dixie State Trailblazers- -
Drexel Dragons- -
East Carolina Pirates- -
East Tennessee State Buccaneers- -
Eastern Illinois Panthers- -
Eastern Kentucky Colonels- -
Eastern Michigan Eagles- -
Eastern Washington Eagles- -
Elon Phoenix- -
Evansville Aces- -
Fairfield Stags- -
Florida A&M Rattlers- -
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles- -
Florida International Panthers- -
Fordham Rams- -
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs- -
George Mason Patriots- -
George Washington Revolutionaries- -
Georgia Southern Eagles- -
Georgia State Panthers- -
Hampton Pirates- -
Harvard Crimson- -
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors- -
High Point Panthers- -
Holy Cross Crusaders- -
Idaho Vandals- -
Idaho State Bengals- -
Illinois State Redbirds- -
Incarnate Word Cardinals- -
IUPUI Jaguars- -
Jackson State Tigers- -
Jacksonville Dolphins- -
Jacksonville State Gamecocks- -
La Salle Explorers- -
Lafayette Leopards- -
Lamar Cardinals- -
Lehigh Mountain Hawks- -
Liberty Flames- -
Lipscomb Bisons- -
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs- -
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns- -
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks- -
Loyola Marymount Lions- -
Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds- -
Maine Black Bears- -
Manhattan Jaspers- -
Marist Red Foxes- -
Marshall Thundering Herd- -
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks- -
Mercer Bears- -
Merrimack Warriors- -
Miami-Ohio RedHawks- -
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders- -
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils- -
Missouri State Bears- -
Monmouth Hawks- -
Montana Grizzlies- -
Morgan State Bears- -
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers- -
Navy Midshipmen- -
Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks- -
New Hampshire Wildcats- -
New Orleans Privateers- -
Niagara Purple Eagles- -
NJIT Highlanders- -
Norfolk State Spartans- -
North Alabama Lions- -
North Carolina A&T Aggies- -
North Carolina Central Eagles- -
North Dakota Fighting Hawks- -
North Dakota State Bison- -
North Florida Ospreys- -
Northeastern Huskies- -
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks- -
Northern Colorado Bears- -
Northern Illinois Huskies- -
Northern Iowa Panthers- -
Northwestern State Demons- -
Ohio Bobcats- -
Old Dominion Monarchs- -
Pacific Tigers- -
Pennsylvania Quakers- -
Pepperdine Waves- -
Portland Pilots- -
Portland State Vikings- -
Prairie View A&M Panthers- -
Presbyterian Blue Hose- -
Quinnipiac Bobcats- -
Radford Highlanders- -
Rhode Island Rams- -
Rice Owls- -
Rider Broncs- -
Robert Morris Colonials- -
Sacramento State Hornets- -
Sacred Heart Pioneers- -
Saint Joseph's Hawks- -
San Diego Toreros- -
San Jose State Spartans- -
Seattle Redhawks- -
Siena Saints- -
South Alabama Jaguars- -
South Carolina State Bulldogs- -
South Dakota Coyotes- -
Southeastern Louisiana Lions- -
Southern Jaguars- -
Southern Illinois Salukis- -
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville Cougars- -
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles- -
Southern Utah Thunderbirds- -
St. Francis-Pennsylvania Red Flash- -
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks- -
Stony Brook Seawolves- -
Tarleton State Texans- -
Temple Owls- -
Tennessee State Tigers- -
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles- -
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks- -
Texas State Bobcats- -
Texas-Arlington Mavericks- -
The Citadel Bulldogs- -
Toledo Rockets- -
Towson Tigers- -
Troy Trojans- -
Tulane Green Wave- -
Tulsa Golden Hurricane- -
UC Davis Aggies- -
UC Irvine Anteaters- -
UC San Diego Tritons- -
UIC Flames- -
UMass Minutemen- -
UMass-Lowell River Hawks- -
UMBC Retrievers- -
UMKC Roos- -
UNC Greensboro Spartans- -
UNC Wilmington Seahawks- -
USC Upstate Spartans- -
Utah Valley Wolverines- -
UTEP Miners- -
UTRGV Vaqueros- -
UTSA Roadrunners- -
Valparaiso Beacons- -
VMI Keydets- -
Weber State Wildcats- -
Western Carolina Catamounts- -
Western Illinois Leathernecks- -
Western Michigan Broncos- -
William & Mary Tribe- -
Winthrop Eagles- -
Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix- -
Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers- -
Wofford Terriers- -
Wright State Raiders- -

Odds as of February 3rd, 2025 04:32am EST.

A clear path for the Cougars

So why are the Huskies still an overwhelming odds choice to reach the Final Four? To start with, they won’t have to play everyone. Auburn, at +375 the No. 2 odds choice to win the region, faces a potential second-round game with 2023 Final Four darling San Diego State. Illinois and Iowa State are on a collision course for the Sweet 16. Morehead State, Drake and Florida Atlantic loom as potential chaos agents. A loaded region like the East also leaves the possibility of good teams beating up on one another, and opening a clearer path for the Huskies than what it looks like right now on paper.

Because on paper, it looks like Houston is the No. 1 overall seed. The Cougars are a +125 bet to get out of a South region the features the weakest No. 2 seed in Marquette, a reeling No. 4 seed in Duke, and just two—two!—teams in the top 10 of both KenPom and the NCAA’s own NET index. Marquette and Florida have injury issues. Kentucky is as streaky as it comes. Of all the top regional seeds, Houston right now feels like the safest bet to make it to Glendale.

The West is a bit more balanced, with No. 2 seed Arizona the odds +260 odds favorite to win the region over top-seeded and +300 wager North Carolina. There are legitimate questions about both teams, given that the Wildcats have dropped two of their last three and UNC turtled in the ACC final against a North Carolina State team playing its fifth game in as many days. Potential long shots to reach the Final Four include +1400 St. Mary’s, which has won 18 of its last 19, and +2500 New Mexico, one of the best teams in the field against the spread.

Upsets abound in Midwest?

Purdue is the +150 choice to win a Midwest region whose lower half appears loaded with upset potential. Pac-12 tournament champion Oregon, the No. 11 seed, has a dominant low post presence of the type that’s traditionally given South Carolina fits. No. 12 seed McNeese State is 30-3, coached by former LSU head man Will Wade, has lots of dudes that can man up with Gonzaga. No. 13 seed Samford with its high-tempo offense faces a Kansas team that’s been devastated by injuries.

In addition, don’t be surprised if a First Four winner knocks off No. 7 seed Texas, which limps in having lost 10 of its last 19. The 10, 11, 12 and 13 seeds all reaching the second round in the Midwest looms as a possibility—which would also clear the bottom half of the bracket for Tennessee, a +350 bet to make the Final Four. The Volunteers have that combination of inside-outside balance, physicality, and scoring ability—fueled by all-everything guard Dalton Knecht—to go toe-to-toe with Purdue in a potential regional final.

Beyond the regions themselves, some of the individual game lines speak to botched seeding on behalf of the NCAA selection committee. South Carolina opened as just a 1.5-point favorite over Oregon, a very narrow point spread for a 6-11 game. Drake, the No. 10 seed in the East, opened as a 1.5-point favorite over No. 7 seed Washington State. In the West, No. 10 Nevada opened as a 1.5-point favorite over No. 7 seed Dayton, and No. 11 seed New Mexico opened as a 1.5-point favorite over No. 6 seed Clemson. 

And there’s one other number worth watching: 174.5, the highest total of the first round, for West No. 4 seed Alabama against No. 13 seed Charleston. The Cougars hoist an average of 30.6 3-pointers per game, which ranks third nationally, while the Crimson Tide shoot an average of 30.3, which ranks fourth. Alabama has gone over the total in 10 of its last 11 and 75% of its games this season, according to TeamRankings.com, the highest such rate of any team in the field.

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