When betting on college football, the favorites are favorites for a reason. But, there's no better feeling than cashing in an underdog upset and raking in all that profit.
With the new season underway, we are looking at the upcoming slate of games each week to pick out our top college football upset picks and underdogs to tail.
Upset Record: 6-0 (+15.20 Units)
Week 4 College Football Upset Alert
Be sure to check out our college football underdog betting report to know all the underdog betting trends.
Underdog Pick #1: No. 22 UCLA (+175) vs No. 11 Utah
The Bruins are part of the blue blood dynasty bleeding into college football, going 3-0 to start the season. Averaging 31 PPG, which ranks higher than the Utes' 21 PPG, UCLA is awaiting its toughest opponent of the season.
But, Utah (3-0) will likely still be without QB1 Cam Rising, who is recovering from an ACL tear from last season. Even Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham said it himself, "we've got to get healthy."
Kyle Whittingham: "We've got to get healthy. We have 15 or 16 guys that can help us win that are not available. We've got to start getting them back. We lost some more today...I've coached 40 years and never seen anything like this in that department."— Cole Bagley (@bagley_cole) September 16, 2023
In addition to Rising, names like TE Brant Kuithe (ACL), Johnny Maea (undisclosed), DE Connor O'Toole and many others are still a massive question mark.
UCLA as been playing great and Utah is trying to quickly fill massive holes in its lineup. It's not an even matchup right now.
Underdog Pick #2: No. 6 ohio state vs no. 9 notre dame (+140)
I told you I was riding with some ranked underdogs this week and this line makes my head tilt in confusion. Notre Dame (4-0) has been a pretty solid group this season. QB Sam Hartman, on pace to break a college football record, has pocketed at least three total touchdowns in each meeting. Did I mention he has yet to throw an interception? When the senior isn't tossing, RB Audric Estime is protecting the pigskin, piling up 521 yards and six touchdowns.
Now Ohio State (3-0) is in a transition period after losing CJ Stroud to the NFL. QB1 Kyle McCord obviously doesn't compare yet, completing 69.7% of his passes for six touchdowns and just over 815 yards.
Both these two have a comparable passing defense, the Buckeyes allowing 143 YPG and the Irish with 146.7 YPG. But, I'll take Hartman's calm and collective veteranship to lead the way here.
The College Football Upset Parlay
If you bet $10 on Florida State (+125) and Colorado (+575) together in a parlay for Week 1, the college football upset parlay would pay out $151.88 if both bets hit.
You can calculate your own parlay odds and picks at our Parlay Calculator.
This Year’s Biggest College Football Upsets
What Is A College Football Upset Pick?
A college football upset pick or a college football underdog pick is a wager on an NCAA football squad that is not expected to win, according to the odds. This means that the team is “plus money” or you’ll get a bigger payout if they do actually win, instead of a classic favorite.
College Football Underdog FAQs
How often do underdogs win in college football?
A few weeks into the 2022 season, college football underdogs won 21.9% of the time and covered 47.9% of the time. You can read our complete College Football Underdog Betting Report.
Do favorites win more than underdogs?
In almost every sport, favorites win more than underdogs, and that's no different for college football. Underdogs can win, and there can be a few days or weeks where underdogs out-perform favorites, but it's not common.
Should I bet on underdogs?
Only betting on favorites is rarely profitable, so it's smart to mix in some underdog bets. The trick is picking and choosing the smart underdog bets, and finding value in long lines.