This may be the season of the underdog. College football has seen lots of history made, like the Tennessee Volunteers taking down the Alabama Crimson Tide for the first time since 2006 or TCU being ranked in the top 10 for the first time since 2017.
Last week, college football fans saw some jaw-dropping upsets during Conference Championship Week. If you defied the odds and took the Utah Utes at +130 on the moneyline, then you brought in some dollar signs as they took down the USC Trojans 47-24, crushing USC’s hopes of a CFP run. Another big game had a surprising ending as the No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs fell to the Kansas State Wildcats in a 31-28 OT finish. The Wildcats cashed out their +100 moneyline and covered the +1.5 spread by winning outright.
WON THE DANG DAY pic.twitter.com/G2z2nzOiT8
— K-State Football (@KStateFB) December 3, 2022
Based on last week’s results, our underdog reports have seen a drop in profits in all categories, but that was to be expected with just eight matchups featured in Week 14, pitting the best in the conferences against one another. Underdogs have won 26.1 percent of the time SU through 14 weeks of the 2022 season, staying around the same percentage margin since Week 13. The most consistent profit all season long has been with the underdogs covering the spread. Trust us, when the bet hits, it is dollar signs that follow.
Looking to make some profit from college football? Betting on the underdog is the most efficient way to put some extra cash in your pockets. Be sure to check out our best bowl betting strategies and bowl odds page for all the updated information you need to place the best bets.
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Don’t forget to check out our net yards per play report for college football squads. It will help you to understand which teams are actually playing well or not.
College Football Underdog Betting Records
| Dog SU | Dog ATS | 10-Pt Dog SU | 10-Pt Dog ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188-532 (26.1%) | 373-334-13 (52.8%) | 54-292 (15.6%) | 179-158-9 (53.1%) |
That’s the raw numbers. And that’s to be expected – underdogs are, well, underdogs for a reason. They’re either not very good or are worse than their opponent, right? The win ratio isn’t very good, and the underdog SU has not budged at all from last week. The 10-point underdog SU has barely moved either, decreasing slightly from 15.7 to 15.6 percent over a seven-day span. Two areas remain over 50 percent: the underdogs ATS and 10-point underdogs ATS, with each hardly changing since Week 13.
As we prepare for bowl game season, there are just 10 spreads of 10-plus points, with the biggest being +17.5 in Week 15’s matchup between the Samford Bulldogs and North Dakota State Bison.
But underdogs don’t need to win at a rate of 50 percent or better to be profitable. Based on these numbers, there’s a theme that the underdogs may go down to defeat, but the scoreboard won’t be as tilted as people think, which allows them to cover the spread more often. Here’s the same table as above but highlighting the profitability of each so far this year:
College Football Underdog Profitability
| Dog SU | Dog ATS | 10-Pt Dog SU | 10-Pt Dog ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$1517.7 (-15.2 units) | +$514.52 (5.1 units) | +$570.0 (5.7 units) | +$472.89 (4.7 units) |
Betting on the underdog ATS gives you an enticing amount of profit and there will be an extra spark of motivation on the field in the upcoming high-stakes matchups. All spread reports are in plus-money value following Week 14, but the underdog ATS profit has been cut in half while the 10-point underdogs ATS has decreased by over $100.
But, time and time again, the number has proven to be worth it when it comes to the 10-point underdog ATS, which has slightly dropped from a 5.8-unit yield to 5.7 units. For a handful of weeks, betting on the underdog ATS was the most beneficial margin on the board and previously held a +$1,041.79 profit and 10.4-unit yield. With last week’s smaller slate of games lessening the chance for a promising string of upsets, that area has drastically shortened and now showcases +$514.52 and a 5.1-unit yield. I strongly suggest avoiding blindly betting on the underdog SU, with the outcome having the board’s lowest -15.2 units. While the 10-point dog SU area looks tempting sitting at +570.0 and 5.7 units, that number has notably been dropping from last week’s +$870.0 and 8.7-unit yield and the +$1,880.0 (18.8 units) from two weeks earlier.
As the season prepares for its postseason and bowl contests, lines are getting more predictable as we watch each team perform week after week. So, it’s foreseeable the ranked big boys, battling it out in the CFP or for a bowl game win, will dominate as the favorites and win the majority of the time. But the contrast is those larger-than-life underdog moneylines and when bets hit, the board tilts and your wallet smiles.
Here’s your slate of 10-point dogs for Week 15 and bowl games on the college football calendar. All spreads are from Sportsbook.
- Samford +17.5 (vs North Dakota State)
- Holy Cross +17.5 (vs South Dakota State)
- Miami (Ohio) +10 (vs UAB)
- NC Central +16 (vs Jackson State)
- Florida +11 (vs Oregon State)
- North Texas +10.5 (vs Boise State)
- Connecticut +10 (vs Marshall)
- Coastal Carolina +10 (vs East Carolina)
- North Carolina +13.5 (vs Oregon)
- Purdue +10.5 (vs LSU)
So consider this when building your college football betting strategy for this week’s slate of games.
Check out our college football betting hub to help you understand the basics of college football underdog betting, or head over to our college football computer picks page to see what underdogs the Odds Shark computer likes this week.
Sportsbook
To find the college football sportsbook that’s right for you, head over to our sportsbook review page.
How College Football Underdog Betting Works
Betting on college football can be daunting with all the conferences and teams, but one great way to get started is to have a ride-or-die strategy, like betting on the underdogs.
It’s easy and profitable, and all you really need are the basics of sports betting. In your college football sportsbook, you’ll find odds that can be listed as American odds (-500), fractional odds (1/5) or decimal odds (1.20). We use American style at Odds Shark, but you can often swap between formats at any book.
Sportsbook
Those odds are then used to help you gauge and value the different kinds of bets. Here’s an example of a moneyline bet (using American odds), where you would just have to pick the straight-up (SU) Sportsbook of the contest:
Ohio State Buckeyes -130
Michigan Wolverines +240
In this case, Ohio State is the favorite, paying out $100 in profit for every $130 you bet. Michigan is the underdog, as shown by the plus (+) sign, paying out at a higher amount if the Wolverines were to upset the Buckeyes.
College Football Underdog Betting: Against The Spread
While betting moneyline or straight up can be very profitable for the upsets, you can always lean on spread betting if you don’t want to hope for a massive upset.
In spread wagering, the underdog is given a set number of points that they can’t lose by (or they can win outright), whereas the favorite has to win by a certain amount. Here’s an example:
LSU Tigers -7.5 (must win by eight or more points)
Alabama Crimson Tide +7.5 (can lose by seven or fewer points, or win)
