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Heisman Futures: Tagovailoa suffers a setback

2018 Heisman Trophy Betting Odds

There was a shift on the oddsboard as Heisman Trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa was removed from Alabama’s Week 11 game against Mississippi State with a right knee injury and fell from -1000 to -450. He does remain the favorite heading into Week 12 and head coach Nick Saban says he will be good to go this Saturday, but this definitely opens the door for Kyler Murray (+500), who is second to Tagovailoa.

Bovada has Tagovailoa leading the pack at -450 followed by Murray at +500, Will Grier at +700, Shea Patterson at +2000 and Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne at +2500 to round out the top hopefuls on the oddsboard.

How significant is Tagovailoa’s injury?

For the ninth time through Alabama’s 10 games this year, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa didn’t take a snap in the fourth, but this time it wasn’t because of a lopsided score, but rather for the protection of its standout player. Tagovailoa has been dealing with a knee injury over the last few weeks and it came to a head when he took a low hit against Mississippi State that ended his night, leaving many holding their breath as their Heisman futures bet quickly was in jeopardy. Head coach Nick Saban says the sophomore will be under center this weekend against The Citadel, so perhaps the injury isn’t as bad as it may have appeared at first.

It’ll be interesting to see how long the Hawaii native plays against a weaker FCS side in The Citadel as Alabama will be able to score at will, but it is a good tune-up game prior to the Iron Bowl next week against No. 24 Auburn. The Week 11 match against Mississippi State was Tagovailoa’s worst performance of the year, as he threw for just 164 yards with one touchdown and – for the second straight week – one interception while having a quarterback rating of 37.9. On the season, he has now thrown for 2,525 yards with 28 touchdowns and two interceptions, while leading the nation with a 95.8 QBR.

Murray and Grier continue to put pressure on Tagovailoa

Second and third on the oddsboard are a pair of Big 12 quarterbacks in Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray (+500) and West Virginia’s Will Grier (+700). Both schools have had a hiccup this season with Oklahoma falling in the Red River Showdown in a 48-45 shootout vs Texas, while West Virginia was held down in a 30-14 loss at Iowa State. These two QBs will face off at the end of the season at Milan Puskar Stadium, which will surely dash one of their hopes at lifting the coveted award.

Murray is eighth in the nation with 3,038 passing yards and Grier is right behind him in ninth with 2,961 yards. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma signal-caller has thrown 32 touchdowns and the West Virginia QB has thrown 31. The one edge that Murray has over Grier is on the ground. The Mountaineers QB has rushed just 34 times this year, mostly in victory formation, for a total of -63 yards. The Sooners starter has rushed 96 times for 640 yards with seven touchdowns. All eyes will be on their meeting in Week 13 to be the front-runner behind Tagovailoa if he struggles in the Iron Bowl or the SEC championship game.

Here’s a look at the odds for the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 12:

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)-450
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+500
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+700
Shea Patterson (QB Michigan)+2000
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+2500
Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)+2500
Gardner Minshew (QB Washington State)+5000
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+10000
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+10000

Odds as of November 13 at Bovada

Archived Articles

The college football schedule is on its final stretch of the season with most teams having just three games remaining and the Heisman Trophy appears to be heading back to Alabama. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a runaway train with the top odds at -1000 to win the coveted award, coming off an impressive victory in Week 10.

Bovada has Tagovailoa leading the pack at -1000 followed by Kyler Murray at +600, Dwayne Haskins at +1400, Shea Patterson at +1400 and Will Grier at +1800 to round out the top five players on the oddsboard.

Tagovailoa exceeded expectations in Death Valley

This article is becoming more and more difficult as the season goes on as Tagovailoa is running away on the oddsboard, but my manager says I have to write this article so I must continue on. The game that many people had circled on their calendar was Alabama’s Week 10 contest on the road against then-No. 3 LSU. The Crimson Tide were getting a lot of criticism on their somewhat light schedule, with some suggestions that perhaps their numbers were inflated. Well, they put those doubts to rest when they dominated all facets of the game against the Tigers, blanking them 29-0, and Tagovailoa shined.

For the first time all season, the Hawaii native played all four quarters. He completed 59.5 percent of his passes, throwing for 295 yards with two touchdowns, and rushed for 49 yards and another score. Tagovailoa also showed that he is, in fact, human as he threw his first interception of the year, ending his streak of 28 touchdowns with no interceptions dating back to the fourth quarter of last year’s national championship game. Looking ahead, ’Bama has a meeting with No. 18 Mississippi State this weekend and doesn’t face another ranked opponent until No. 6 Georgia in the SEC championship game.

Murray and Haskins are having fantastic seasons in their own right

If it were any other year, we would have a terrific race for the Heisman between Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray (+600) and Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins (+1400). I was a broken record for most of the season that these two signal-callers were just waiting in the wings for Tagovailoa to stumble. That game for him to struggle was against LSU and that has come and gone.

Murray has thrown the third-most touchdowns this season with 31 and the seventh-most passing yards with 2,689. However, his squad had that hiccup in the Red River Showdown vs then-No. 19 Texas, falling 48-45, even though the junior did everything he could to win that game. He threw for 304 yards with four touchdowns and one interception, while adding 92 rushing yards and another TD.

A similar story can be written for Haskins. The sophomore has thrown for 3,053 yards, which is the third-most in the nation, and 32 touchdowns, ranking in a tie for best in the NCAA. But much like the Sooners, the Buckeyes had a rough go in Week 8, losing 49-20 to Purdue. Similar to Murray in his defeat, Haskins completed 67.1 percent of his 73 pass attempts, throwing for 470 yards but just two touchdowns.

Here’s a look at the odds for the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 11:

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)-1000
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+600
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+1400
Shea Patterson (QB Michigan)+1400
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+1800
Gardner Minshew (QB Washington State)+5000
Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)+6600
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+10000
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+10000

Odds as of November 6 at Bovada

Archived Articles

A couple of undefeated teams suffered their first losses of the season in Week 8, which has shaken up the top of the oddsboard for the 2018 Heisman Trophy. Most notably, Ohio State was pummeled 49-20 by Purdue, after which Buckeyes quarterback Dwayne Haskins’ odds dropped from +300 to +1200. But once again, Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa continued to impress and still has the best odds at -275, which moved from -150 last week.

Bovada has Tagovailoa as the favorite with -275 odds followed by Kyler Murray at +350, Haskins at +1200, Shea Patterson at +1200 and Trace McSorley at +1400 to round out the top five players in the Heisman Trophy race.

Tagovailoa continues to build his case for the Heisman

Another week and another dominant Alabama victory, as the Crimson Tide swarmed Tennessee 58-21 and, once again, Tua Tagovailoa didn’t touch the field in the fourth quarter. The sophomore quarterback played the first half and just one drive in the second half, which resulted in a touchdown, his fourth passing TD of the game.

The Hawaii native has now thrown for 2,066 yards with 25 touchdowns and no interceptions. His 2,066 yards are the 12th-most in the nation, while his 25 touchdowns are tied for the third-most. He’s thrown the most TDs without an interception; the next closest is UMass backup QB Ross Comis, who has thrown six TDs with no picks. Once again, Tagovailoa is putting up these impressive numbers and hasn’t yet taken a single snap in the fourth quarter this season so he’s essentially missed over two games. Alabama is on a bye this week and heads to Death Valley to take on LSU the week after.

Murray bounced back from his first loss of the season

Oklahoma stumbled in Week 6 in a high-scoring 48-45 defeat to Texas, which caused quarterback Kyler Murray’s odds to drop from +350 down to +700. However, the Sooners had their bye after that defeat and rebounded last week by swarming TCU 52-27. Murray was good in the victory, throwing for 213 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions.

On the season, the junior quarterback has thrown for 1,977 yards with 25 touchdowns and three interceptions. Murray has also gained 428 yards on the ground and added five rushing touchdowns. The Texas native’s 25 passing touchdowns ranks in a tie for third-most in the NCAA with Tagovailoa, while his 1,977 yards are the 17th-most in the nation. Oklahoma has a favorable schedule looming, with West Virginia at the end of the season being the only team that is currently ranked. At +350, Murray has the second-best odds to win the coveted award.

Here’s a look at the odds for the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 9:

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)-275
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+350
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+1200
Shea Patterson (QB Michigan)+1200
Trace McSorley (QB Penn State)+1400
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+2000
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+2000
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+2500
Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)+4000
Jonathan Taylor (RB Wisconsin)+5000
Justin Herbert (QB Oregon)+10000
Drew Lock (QB Missouri)+10000
Bryce Love (RB Stanford)+20000

Odds as of October 23 at Bovada

Archived Articles

With just five weeks remaining in the college football schedule, the Heisman Trophy picture remains the same with Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa holding the best odds to win the coveted award. The sophomore has odds of -150 to win the 2018 Heisman Trophy and become the first Crimson Tide quarterback to win the award. Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins and Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray remain a close second with +300 odds.

Bovada has Tagovailoa leading the pack at -150 followed by Haskins and Murray at +300, Will Grier at +1200, and McKenzie Milton and Trace McSorley at +2000 to round out the top players on the Heisman Trophy oddsboard.

Tagovailoa is running away from the pack

Tua Tagovailoa (-150) continues to impress as Alabama has rumbled its way to a 7-0 start to the season, averaging the most points per game in the nation (53.6) and boasting an average winning margin of 38.43. The Hawaii native has thrown for 1,760 yards (17th-most in the nation), 21 touchdowns (fourth-most in the nation) and zero interceptions and has a quarterback rating of 97.4 (best in the nation). All of these elite-level stats without stepping foot on the field in the fourth quarter yet this season, meaning he has missed out on nearly two full games because his team is up by such a large margin and he gets benched for the final quarter.

Alabama has just one game remaining before its big match in Death Valley against No. 5 LSU on November 3. That’ll likely be the first time we see Tagovailoa play an entire game and assuming the Crimson Tide can earn a victory there, it would be smooth sailing for the sophomore to earn the 2018 Heisman Trophy. If Alabama does, in fact, beat LSU, Tagovailoa’s odds will likely be somewhere in the -500 or more range afterward, so -150 now may be his best odds for the rest of the season.

Haskins and Murray trailing behind despite strong seasons

Dwayne Haskins (+300) leads the nation with 28 touchdowns thrown, two more than second-place Cole McDonald (Hawaii), has the fourth-best quarterback rating of 85.9 and has the third-most passing yards of 2,331. Those are really impressive stats that have carried Ohio State to a perfect 7-0 to start its season, with only two games remaining against ranked opponents. The Buckeyes take on No. 24 Michigan State in Week 11 and close the season against No. 6 Michigan.

Meanwhile, Kyler Murray (+300) had a hiccup in Week 6 against Texas, even though he threw for 304 yards with four touchdowns and just one interception while rushing for 92 yards and adding another touchdown in a 48-45 loss. Unlike Haskins and Tagovailoa, who are predominantly pocket passers, Murray tucks the ball a little more, as he has rushed for 377 yards with five TDs. He has added 1,764 passing yards and 21 passing TDs and has the second-best quarterback rating of 96.9. The junior QB has put these numbers up having played one fewer game than the other two as Oklahoma had its bye week last week.

In any other season, these two would be worthy of winning the Heisman Trophy, but this year they face an uphill battle against Tagovailoa. However, if Alabama has a stumble, especially in that Week 10 matchup at LSU, Murray and Haskins will quickly make this an interesting race down the stretch with any slip-ups potentially costing someone the award.

Here’s a look at the odds for the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 8:

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)-150
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+300
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+300
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+1200
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+2000
Trace McSorley (QB Penn State)+2000
Jonathan Taylor (RB Wisconsin)+5000
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+5000
Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)+5000
Benny Snell Jr. (RB Kentucky)+6000
Justin Herbert (QB Oregon)+6600
Bryce Love (RB Stanford)+10000
Drew Lock (QB Missouri)+20000
Jake Fromm (QB Georgia)+20000

Odds as of October 16 at Bovada

Archived Articles

The college football schedule has passed the halfway point of the season and the Heisman Trophy race is coming down to two contenders. Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at -150 is the clear favorite and is putting together a fantastic campaign and hasn’t even taken a snap in the fourth quarter. As it has been for most of the last few weeks, the major challenger to Tagovailoa is Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins at +450.

Bovada has Tagovailoa at -150 followed by Haskins at +450, Will Grier at +650, Kyler Murray at +700, and McKenzie Milton and Trace McSorley both at +1200 at the top of the oddsboard.

Tagovailoa continues his dominant season

With just six games remaining in Alabama’s regular-season schedule, Tua Tagovailoa continues to become more and more of a favorite as the end of the season nears. The sophomore signal-caller has a 98.5 quarterback rating which is the highest ever through the first six games of the season since that stat began being tracked in 2003.

The Hawaii native has racked up 1,495 yards, which is 23rd-most in the nation, 18 touchdowns (sixth-most in the nation) and no interceptions, the only QB with more than 100 pass attempts to have no picks. All of those stats without stepping on the field in the fourth quarter – essentially, he has missed out on a game and a half because the scores are so lopsided in the second half.

Alabama has a very favorable schedule looming, with a tough match in Death Valley against No. 13 LSU at the start of November and the Iron Bowl at home vs No. 21 Auburn to close out the season. Outside of those two games, the Crimson Tide and Tagovailoa should continue putting up dominant numbers and he should remain the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.

Haskins has second-best odds once again

Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins was passed by Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray last week on the oddsboard but another strong performance in Week 6 has catapulted Haskins back into second place at +450.

The Maryland native is coming off a career performance in which he threw for 455 yards and six touchdowns, both career highs, in a 49-26 victory over Indiana. The sophomore QB is fifth in the nation with an 87.1 QBR and has thrown for 1,919 yards, which is the third-most in the NCAA. He has tossed 25 touchdowns, which is the most in the nation, while giving up four interceptions.

The Buckeyes have had a tougher schedule than the Crimson Tide, knocking off then-No. 15 TCU 40-28 in Week 3 and edging then-No. 9 Penn State 27-26 in Week 5. Moving forward, though, Ohio State’s only tough task remaining is No. 12 Michigan at the end of the season.

Here’s a look at the odds for the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 7:

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)-150
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+450
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+650
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+700
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+1200
Trace McSorley (QB Penn State)+1200
Jonathan Taylor (RB Wisconsin)+2000
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+4000
Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)+5000
Benny Snell Jr. (RB Kentucky)+6000
Justin Herbert (QB Oregon)+6600
David Sills (WR West Virginia)+8000
Ed Oliver (DL Houston)+8000
Bryce Love (RB Stanford)+10000
Drew Lock (QB Missouri)+10000
D’Andre Swift (RB Georgia)+10000
Jake Fromm (QB Georgia)+10000

Odds as of October 9 at Bovada

Archived Articles

Following a couple of weeks of conference play and tightly contested games, one thing remains constant and that is Tua Tagovailoa is still the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. No. 3 Clemson had a scare against Syracuse while No. 4 Ohio State mounted a late comeback for its win over Penn State, but Alabama has continued to dominate its opponents.

Bovada has Tagovailoa at -105 followed by Kyler Murray at +350, Dwayne Haskins at +375, Will Grier at +550 and McKenzie Milton at +2000 holding the top spots on the oddsboard.

Tagovailoa leads the nation’s best offense

Another week down and another dominant performance put on by Alabama sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Hawaii native didn’t play deep into the Week 5 game against Louisiana as the match was a blowout early with the Crimson Tide cruising to a 56-14 victory. However, Tagovailoa was a perfect 8-for-8, throwing for 128 yards and two touchdowns in his time on the field.

Alabama is leading the nation in points this season, scoring 271 points which is 19 more than second-place Hawaii, and is averaging 54.2 points per game. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,161 yards with 14 touchdowns and no interceptions, completing 75 percent of his passes. I mentioned last week that it would likely be the last time you could get him at plus-money and, sure enough, heading into Week 6 he is -105 to win the Heisman. Expect Tagovailoa to continue padding his stats before heading into a pivotal Week 10 match in Death Valley vs No. 5 LSU.

Oklahoma QB holding the Second-best odds

Kyler Murray made headlines in the offseason when he signed an entry-level contract with the Oakland Athletics for what that would mean for his football career at Oklahoma. The A’s allowed the junior quarterback to play one more season and he has taken that opportunity and run with it. The Sooners are 5-0 through the first five weeks of the season and they have scored an average of 48.6 points per game, the eighth-most in the nation.

The Texas native has completed 70.6 percent of his passes for 1,460 yards with 17 touchdowns and two interceptions. Murray’s 1,460 passing yards is the 10th-most in the NCAA while his 17 touchdowns puts him in a tie for third in the nation. He has also rushed for 285 yards on 46 attempts while adding four more touchdowns on the ground.

Oklahoma has a very favorable schedule ahead with only two notable games remaining – this week’s Red River Showdown vs No. 19 Texas and the season finale vs No. 9 West Virginia. If the Sooners can continue taking care of business as they have done through the first five weeks of the season, Murray’s stock will continue to rise and any stumble by Tagovailoa could push him into becoming the favorite for the Heisman Trophy.

Dwayne Haskins not out of the conversation

Despite being passed by Kyler Murray on the oddsboard, Dwayne Haskins hasn’t stumbled and is still hanging around with the third-best odds at +375. Ohio State now has two victories over ranked opponents this year, beating then-No. 15 TCU 40-28 in Week 3 and winning a thriller vs then-No. 9 Penn State 27-26 last week. Haskins had some difficulties against a tough Penn State team, completing just 56.4 percent of his passes, but did throw for 270 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.

The Buckeyes have averaged 49 points per game, the sixth-most in the NCAA. Meanwhile, the Maryland native has thrown for 1,464 yards, completing 70.8 percent of his passes while notching 19 touchdowns with only two interceptions. His 19 TDs are the second-most in the nation, while his 1,464 yards are good for eighth-most in college football. Ohio State’s only tough task remaining on its schedule is its season finale vs Michigan so we can expect Haskins to be in the mix for the Heisman Trophy right up until the final week of the season.

Here’s a look at the odds for the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 6:

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)-105
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+350
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+375
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+550
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+2000
Jonathan Taylor (RB Wisconsin)+2200
Trace McSorley (QB Penn State)+2500
Bryce Love (RB Stanford)+4000
Justin Herbert (QB Oregon)+4000
Drew Lock (QB Missouri)+6000
Benny Snell Jr. (RB Kentucky)+6000
David Sills (WR West Virginia)+6600
Ed Oliver (DL Houston)+8000
D'Andre Swift (RB Georgia)+10000
Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)+10000
Jake Fromm (QB Georgia)+10000
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+10000
J.K. Dobbins (RB Ohio State)+20000

Odds as of October 2 at Bovada

Archived Articles

The college football schedule heads into its fifth week of the season and second week of conference play and it is still the Alabama quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, who has the top odds to win the 2018 Heisman Trophy. With a favorable schedule looming, the sophomore is inching closer and closer to becoming the first Crimson Tide QB to win the coveted award.

Bovada has Tagovailoa at +115 followed by Dwayne Haskins at +500, Will Grier at +650, Kyler Murray at +800 and Jonathan Taylor, Trace McSorley, Bryce Love and McKenzie Milton all at +1600 occupying the top spots on the oddsboard.

Tagovailoa passes first tough task

It was a little difficult to determine if Tagovailoa was really this good or was just playing against subpar teams through the first three weeks of the season. Well, the Hawaii native lived up to expectations against then-No. 22 Texas A&M in Week 4. Tagovailoa had his most pass attempts on the season at 30, completing 73.3 percent of those attempts for 387 yards and four touchdowns. He also rushed for one more touchdown in that game en route to a 45-23 Alabama victory.

Looking ahead, the Crimson Tide have four straight games against unranked teams that the sophomore QB should be able to feast upon before heading into Death Valley to take on No. 5 LSU. The only standout games for potential stumbles are that one vs LSU and the end-of-season Iron Bowl vs No. 10 Auburn, which this year is played in Tuscaloosa. At +115, this may be the last week that you can get Tagovailoa at plus-money, so get on it!

Dwayne Haskins still hanging around

The only real threat, in my opinion, to Tagovailoa for this year’s Heisman Trophy is Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins. The Buckeyes are just ahead of the Crimson Tide for points scored per game at 54.5 for OSU and 53.8 for Alabama. Additionally, we have seen Haskins play deeper into games than Tagovailoa, which has helped pad his stats. The Maryland native has thrown for 1,194 yards, which is the 10th-most in the nation, completing 75.7 percent of his passes and is second in the NCAA with 16 touchdowns and only one interception.

We will really find out what Haskins is following this week’s matchup vs No. 9 Penn State. The sophomore QB performed well in his first outing vs a ranked team, throwing for 344 yards and two touchdowns in a 40-28 win vs then-No. 15 TCU in Week 3. Penn State has the most points per game this season at 55.5 and if there’s any team to upset Ohio State this year, it’s the Nittany Lions. Haskins’ stock will definitely rise if he can put on a dominant performance in Week 5 and we could see his odds drop from +500.

Keep an eye on Trevor Lawrence

It may be too little, too late for Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, but he has been spectacular this season behind former starting QB Kelly Bryant. It has been announced that Clemson is handing the reins to Lawrence moving forward. The freshman has outperformed Bryant for much of the season, but head coach Dabo Swinney continued to go to the senior. Lawrence has thrown for 600 yards, completing 65 percent of his passes for nine touchdowns and two interceptions in his relief work this year.

Clemson has virtually no competition on its schedule moving forward and if the freshman can continue to learn and develop, he could put up some great numbers, but again, not being the starter for the first four weeks may hurt him. At +4000 he’s providing the best value for an outside shot at this year’s Heisman Trophy.

Here's a look at the odds for the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 5:

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)+115
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+500
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+650
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+800
Jonathan Taylor (RB Wisconsin)+1600
Trace McSorley (QB Penn State)+1600
Bryce Love (RB Stanford)+1600
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+1600
Shea Patterson (QB Michigan)+3300
D'Andre Swift (RB Georgia)+4000
Drew Lock (QB Missouri)+4000
Nick Fitzgerald (QB Mississippi State)+4000
Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)+4000
Jake Fromm (QB Georgia)+4000
Justin Herbert (QB Oregon)+5000
Khalil Tate (QB Arizona)+5000
David Sills (WR West Virginia)+6600
J.K. Dobbins (RB Ohio State)+8000
Ed Oliver (DL Houston)+8000
Jake Browning (QB Washington)+8000
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+8000
Jarrett Stidham (QB Auburn)+10000
Brandon Wimbush (QB Notre Dame)+12500
Kelly Bryant (QB Clemson)+12500
Ryan Finley (QB NC State)+20000

Odds as of September 25 at Bovada

Archived Articles

With three weeks in the books for the college football schedule, the Heisman Trophy race is becoming more and more clear. Prior to the season, it looked like we might have a running back win the coveted trophy for the first time since 2015, but now heading into Week 4 it’s hard to see a way that a quarterback doesn’t win once again. Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa has the top odds at +150.

Bovada has Tagovailoa at +150 followed by Will Grier at +650, Dwayne Haskins at +700, and Jonathan Taylor and Kyler Murray both at +1000 to round out the top five.

Hard to catch Tagovailoa

Alabama has been bludgeoning teams through the first three weeks of the season, scoring more points than any other school on the way to averaging 56.7 points per game. Much of this success can be credited to sophomore QB Tua Tagovailoa (+150). The Hawaii native is only playing the first half or slightly more of the game through the first three weeks as it’s typically a blowout by that point and he gets sat for the second half.

Tagovailoa has thrown for 646 yards, which is just 45th-most in the nation. However, he averages 12.9 yards per attempt, the fourth-highest mark among QBs who have made more than 10 attempts, and he has tossed eight touchdowns with no interceptions. The sophomore has also rushed the ball 14 times for a total of 93 yards and a rushing touchdown.

Tagovailoa will have a tough test in Week 4 taking on No. 22 Texas A&M, which has allowed just 15 points per game this season, good for 21st in the nation. If the 20-year-old can continue to roll against upcoming ranked opponents, there’s no reason he won’t be Alabama’s first QB to win the Heisman.

Ohio State QB putting pressure on Tagovailoa

Buckeyes sophomore QB Dwayne Haskins (+700) is coming off his first victory over a ranked opponent in Week 3 when he threw for 344 yards and two touchdowns in a 40-28 win vs then-No. 15 TCU. As mentioned above, Alabama has the No. 1 offense in the early going of the season, but Ohio State sits right behind in second place, scoring just one fewer point and averaging 56.3 points per game.

The big difference between Haskins and Tagovailoa is that the Ohio State signal-caller is playing the majority of the games thus far, including being under center for the entire game vs TCU in Week 3. The sophomore has 11 touchdowns on the season, which is tied for fifth-most in the nation. He has also thrown for 890 yards, 13th-most in the NCAA, and has completed 72.5 percent of his attempts.

Ohio State has a much easier path than Alabama for the remainder of the season. The Buckeyes have three upcoming games against now-ranked opponents, with only one ranking in the top 10 (Penn State). Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide have four upcoming games vs now-ranked opponents, with two of them ranking in the top 10 right now (Auburn, LSU). If Tua stumbles at all against these tough foes, Haskins could quickly become the favorite to win the Heisman.

Jonathan Taylor still hanging around but is a risky bet

Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor (+1000) has the best odds of any halfback to win the Heisman Trophy. From preseason into Week 4, the New Jersey native has been in the top five for best odds to win the coveted award, but bettors should avoid him. The sophomore ran wild in the first two weeks for a total of 398 yards and five touchdowns against lesser opponents in Western Kentucky and New Mexico. However, Taylor had his worst performance this season in Week 3, rushing for 117 yards with no touchdowns in a 24-21 loss to BYU.

Taylor was already up against the wall, considering that running backs have only won the Heisman Trophy three times since 2000. Now, coming off a loss, he is really backed into a corner, while the above quarterbacks continue to impress. A bet on Taylor is essentially throwing your money away.

Here's a look at the odds for the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 4:

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)+150
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+650
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+700
Jonathan Taylor (RB Wisconsin)+1000
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+1000
Trace McSorley (QB Penn State)+1600
Bryce Love (RB Stanford)+2000
J.K. Dobbins (RB Ohio State)+2000
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+2500
D’Andre Swift (RB Georgia)+2500
Justin Herbert (QB Oregon)+3300
Drew Lock (QB Missouri)+3300
Shea Patterson (QB Michigan)+3300
Nick Fitzgerald (QB Mississippi State)+3300
Brandon Wimbush (QB Notre Dame)+4000
Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)+4000
Kelly Bryant (QB Clemson)+5000
Khalil Tate (QB Arizona)+5000
Jarrett Stidham (QB Auburn)+6600
David Sills (WR West Virginia)+6600
Ed Oliver (DL Houston)+6600
AJ Dillon (RB Boston College)+6600
Jake Browning (QB Washington)+8000
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+8000
Jake Fromm (QB Georgia)+10000
Ryan Finley (QB NC State)+20000

Odds as of September 18 at Bovada

Archived Articles

As we head into Week 3 of the college football schedule, it is the quarterbacks who have been impressing and hold the best odds to win the Heisman Trophy. Besting the signal-callers thus far is Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa at +333. Also, despite a dominant Week 2, Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor fell from +320 odds to +900 heading into Week 3 but has the best odds of any halfback.

Bovada has Tagovailoa at +333 followed by Will Grier at +450, Dwayne Haskins at +650, Taylor at +900 and Trace McSorley at +950 to round out the top five.

Tagovailoa has been Given the Reins

Heading into the 2018 season there was a quarterback controversy in Alabama involving sophomore Tua Tagovailoa and last year’s starter, Jalen Hurts. However, after back-to-back impressive starts, Tagovailoa has been named the lead quarterback for the remainder of the season by head coach Nick Saban.

The Hawaii native is coming off a week in which he set a new career high with four touchdowns and on the season he has six TDs with no interceptions and 455 yards. It would be historic for Alabama if the sophomore can carry this momentum through the year to a Heisman Trophy. The Crimson Tide have never had a quarterback win the award.

Haskins providing more value than Grier with similar numbers

Trailing Tagovailoa in odds to win the Heisman Trophy is West Virginia QB Will Grier (+450) and Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins (+650). Grier has kicked off the 2018 season on a torrid pace, throwing for 761 yards (fifth-most in the nation), nine touchdowns and just one interception. The Mountaineers have steamrolled their first two opponents, topping Tennessee 40-14 and Youngstown State 52-17. West Virginia has a fairly favorable schedule through much of the season that should help Grier pad his stats. However, things will amp up in the Mountaineers’ final three tests of the season, when they host TCU and Oklahoma and have a road stop at Oklahoma State. Grier’s Heisman hopes may be up for grabs in those contests.

Haskins, on the other hand, doesn’t have the passing yards that Grier has – just 546 through the first two games. But, they match with nine touchdowns and one interception. The one area where Haskins has the edge over Grier is completion percentage. The Ohio State signal-caller has completed 79.2 percent of his passes, including 87 percent in his Week 2 match vs Rutgers. I like Haskins’ value more than Grier’s because Ohio State has a better chance of making it to the College Football Playoff and that definitely plays a role in choosing the Heisman Trophy winner.

No Love for Taylor

I was left scratching my head when I saw the latest odds for the Heisman Trophy winner and where Jonathan Taylor had fallen to after Week 2. The Wisconsin running back entered the second week of the season with the second-best odds to capture the coveted trophy at +320, trailing just Tagovailoa, following the opening week in which he rushed for 145 yards and two touchdowns. Taylor outdid himself last week against New Mexico, rushing for 253 yards and three touchdowns, yet he fell from second-best odds to fourth-best odds at +900. The New Jersey native may need a Wisconsin berth in the College Football Playoff to get his rightful due, but that is a tough task as the Badgers will likely have to get through a stout Ohio State club to get there.

Here's a look at the odds for the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 3:

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)+333
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+450
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+650
Jonathan Taylor (RB Wisconsin)+900
Trace McSorley (QB Penn State)+950
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+1200
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+1200
Bryce Love (RB Stanford)+1600
D'Andre Swift (RB Georgia)+2200
Justin Herbert (QB Oregon)+2500
Jarrett Stidham (QB Auburn)+4000
Brandon Wimbush (QB Notre Dame)+4000
Drew Lock (QB Missouri)+4000
Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)+4000
Kelly Bryant (QB Clemson)+4000
Khalil Tate (QB Arizona)+5000
Jake Fromm (QB Georgia)+5000
Damien Harris (RB Alabama)+5000
J.K. Dobbins (RB Ohio State)+5000
Jake Browning (QB Washington)+5000
Shea Patterson (QB Michigan)+5000
David Sills (WR West Virginia)+5000
Deondre Francois (QB Florida State)+6600
Ed Oliver (DL Houston)+8000
Nick Fitzgerald (QB Mississippi State)+8000
Sam Ehlinger (QB Texas)+8000
Cam Akers (RB Florida State)+10000
Nick Bosa (DL Ohio State)+10000
Jalen Hurts (QB Alabama)+10000
Kenny Hill (QB TCU)+10000
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+12500
Ryan Finley (QB NC State)+15000

Odds as of September 11 at Bovada

Archived Articles

The college football season is in full swing now with one week already in the books and as usual it is the quarterbacks who are dominating the top odds to win the 2018 Heisman Trophy. Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa tops all players at +300, but Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor is nipping at his heels at +320.

MyBookie has Tagovailoa at +300 followed by Taylor at +320, then Dwayne Haskins at +420, Will Grier at +470 and Justin Herbert at +800 to round out the top five. Of course, four of those players are quarterbacks and seven of the last eight Heisman Trophy winners have been the man under center.

Tagovailoa chasing history

The Alabama signal-caller was the backup for the majority of his freshman season last year. However, he produced when he was called upon and no appearance was more important than in the College Football Playoff National Championship game. Tagovailoa came off the bench to start the second half for the Crimson Tide, who were trailing Georgia 13-0 at the half, and he went 14-for-24 for 166 yards and three touchdowns en route to a 26-23 overtime victory for the championship.

The 2017 Alabama starter, Jalen Hurts, is still in the picture, though, but Tagovailoa got the nod for Week 1 and has already been named the starter for Week 2. The Hawaii native had a good start to the season, going 12-for-16, throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns and also rushing for another touchdown before giving way to Hurts. The former starter went just 5-for-9 for 70 yards with no touchdowns, so it seems that coach Nick Saban will continue to lean on Tagovailoa.

In the history of the Heisman Trophy, Alabama has had two winners, both running backs. Derrick Henry was the most recent, in 2015, and Mark Ingram Jr. won in 2009. That means Tagovailoa has an opportunity to be the first Crimson Tide QB to secure the coveted trophy.

Which running back should you hitch your wagon to?

To start the season there were three running backs inside the top 10 for odds to win the Heisman, with Stanford’s Bryce Love actually having the best odds of all players at that time. The other two backs were Jonathan Taylor out of Wisconsin and Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins.

Wisconsin’s Taylor now has the second-best odds at +320 to win the award and tops the big three running backs. The New Jersey native had 1,977 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns last season and added an additional 95 receiving yards for a total of 2,072 yards from scrimmage. The last three Heisman-winning running backs averaged 1,872.3 rushing yards, 2,173 scrimmage yards and 20.3 touchdowns, so Taylor is right in the mix. In Week 1, the sophomore rushed for 145 yards and added two touchdowns.

Love (+1000) had even better numbers than Taylor last season, rushing for 2,118 yards and scoring 19 touchdowns to finish second in the Heisman voting behind winner Baker Mayfield. However, the Stanford tailback was not impressive at all in the opening week of the season. The North Carolina native touched the ball 18 times for just 29 yards, averaging 1.6 yards per carry, and did not find the end zone. The senior will have to turn things around in a hurry or he will fade out of the conversation for the trophy that he was favored to win at the start of the year.

Stay away from J.K. Dobbins (+6600). The Ohio State sophomore was the lead back last season when Mike Weber was dogged by injuries and a lack of productivity when he did get carries. In Dobbins’ freshman season, he rushed for 1,403 yards and scored seven touchdowns and before this season had odds of +1800 to win the Heisman. However, based on the opening week, it appears that Weber will be the starter. He had 20 carries to Dobbins’ 15, and amassed 186 yards and three touchdowns while Dobbins had 74 yards and no scores.

Will Grier may provide the best value at this point

West Virginia quarterback Will Grier (+470) had a tremendous Week 1 and is definitely in the early conversation for the Heisman Trophy. As a junior last year, Grier threw for 3,490 yards and 34 touchdowns while giving up 12 interceptions. A very good year, but in perspective, the 2017 Heisman winner, Baker Mayfield, threw for 4,340 yards with 41 touchdowns and just five interceptions.

The North Carolina native put in a dominant performance in Week 1, throwing for a career-high 429 yards, the first time he has thrown for more than 400 yards, and tied a career high with five touchdowns. He also completed 73.5 percent of his passes in the Mountaineers’ 40-14 victory. If Grier can continue to evolve as a signal-caller, he may quickly become the front-runner to win the award and at +470 he may provide some great value.

Here’s a look at the odds for the Heisman Trophy heading into Week 2:

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds
PlayerOdds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)+300
Jonathan Taylor (RB Wisconsin)+320
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+420
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+470
Justin Herbert (QB Oregon)+800
Bryce Love (RB Stanford)+1000
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+1500
Khalil Tate (QB Arizona)+1700
Nick Fitzgerald (QB Mississippi State)+2100
Trace McSorley (QB Penn State)+2200
Jake Fromm (QB Georgia)+3300
Jarrett Stidham (QB Auburn)+3500
D'Andre Swift (RB Georgia)+3700
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+3700
Jake Browning (QB Washington)+4000
Drew Lock (QB Missouri)+4000
Shea Patterson (QB Michigan)+6200
Brett Rypien (QB Boise State)+6500
J.K. Dobbins (RB Ohio State)+6600
Nick Bosa (DL Ohio State)+7500
David Sills (WR West Virginia)+7500
Eric Dungey (QB Syracuse)+8000
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+10000
Cam Akers (RB Florida State)+11000
Sam Ehlinger (QB Texas)+12000
Ryan Finley (QB NC State)+16000

Odds as of September 5 at MyBookie

Archived Articles

The Heisman Trophy is supposed to be awarded to the most outstanding player in college football every season. But more often than not, the term “player” means “quarterback.” Since 2000, a quarterback has been awarded the Heisman on 15 of 18 occasions.

The other three? They were all running backs.

This upcoming college football season is expected to be dominated by running backs. In fact, two of the three front-runners – according to oddsmakers – to win the Heisman next season are running backs. Jonathan Taylor of Wisconsin (+900) and Bryce Love of Stanford (+750) are expected to be in a heated competition for the statue, with J.K. Dobbins (+1800) also in the mix. 

But what do those running backs need to accomplish in order to beat out not just one another but every other quarterback in the nation?

The three running backs to win a Heisman since the turn of the millennium are Derrick Henry in 2015, Mark Ingram in 2009 and Reggie Bush in 2005. And yes, Bush has since had his Heisman vacated but he is still one of the few benchmarks we have for what a running back needs to do in order to win the award.

Averages Of Last 3 Heisman-winning Running Backs
PlayerCarriesRushing YardsYPCRush TDsScrimmage Yards
Derrick Henry (2015)39522195.6282310
Mark Ingram (2009)27116586.1171992
Reggie Bush (2005)20017408.7162218
Average288.71872.36.820.32173.3

Of course, that trio of backs put up ridiculous numbers. If you look at the averages of Henry, Ingram and Bush as the standard for a running back to win the Heisman, you can truly see how impressive each of their seasons was. Just last season, only four running backs topped the benchmark above in rushing yards, seven in carries, three in yards per carry (minimum 200 rushing attempts) and three in touchdowns.  

However, both Taylor and Love surpassed two of the four averages listed above – Love was only 15 carries short of the Heisman average as well. Dobbins did not find his name in any of the categories – though he did average 7.2 yards per carry on 194 attempts – but keep in mind that he was a freshman last season and saw plenty of carries taken away due to J.T. Barrett and Mike Weber’s spot on the roster.

Taylor gets the edge over his competition largely due to how phenomenal he was during his freshman campaign. Despite being just 18 for the bulk of the 2017 college football season, he racked up 2,118 rushing yards on 8.1 yards per carry while finding the end zone on 19 occasions. In addition, the entirety of Wisconsin’s offensive line returns from last season, which means there is little reason to expect Taylor to falter.

The real wild card is Dobbins. It is clear that he is the best offensive player in Columbus this upcoming season and he was the shining star last season when given the opportunity. With quarterback Barrett gone, Dobbins will be asked to shoulder more of the running load this season – especially with new quarterback Dwayne Haskins expected to take over. If Haskins is the starter, it will be interesting to see how Dobbins is employed, as the offensive scheme would likely need to shift to a downfield passing attack to properly utilize Haskins’ strengths.

All these numbers don’t mean much if you look at one factor that is out of the players’ hands. The past two running backs to win the Heisman (Henry, Ingram) saw their biggest competition come from other backs (Christian McCaffrey, Toby Gerhart). Both 2015 and 2009 were somewhat down years for quarterbacks and so voters turned toward the backfield. And though there is no quarterback who stands out as a competitor for the Heisman, surely a few will emerge throughout the season.

That being said, if there was one year where you could expect a running back to win the Heisman, it is 2018.

2018 Heisman Trophy Winner
PlayerOdds
Bryce Love (RB Stanford)+700
Tua Tagovailoa (QB Alabama)+750
Jonathan Taylor (RB Wisconsin)+900
Dwayne Haskins (QB Ohio State)+1100
Will Grier (QB West Virginia)+1400
Khalil Tate (QB Arizona)+1400
Jake Fromm (QB Georgia)+1500
Trace McSorley (QB Penn State)+1500
J.K. Dobbins (RB Ohio State)+1800
Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)+2000
Shea Patterson (QB Michigan)+2000
Kyler Murray (QB Oklahoma)+2200
Jarrett Stidham (QB Auburn)+2500
Jake Browning (QB Washington)+2500
Cam Akers (RB Florida State)+2800
Justin Herbert (QB Oregon)+3000
AJ Dillon (RB Boston College)+3300
Sam Ehlinger (QB Texas)+3500
D'Andre Swift (RB Georgia)+4000
McKenzie Milton (QB UCF)+4000
Deondre Francois (QB FSU)+4500
Drew Lock (QB Missouri)+4500
Brandon Wimbush (QB Notre Dame)+5000
Kelly Bryant (QB Clemson)+5000
Damien Harris (RB Alabama)+5500
Nick Fitzgerald (QB Mississippi State)+6000
Travis Etienne (RB Clemson)+8000
Ryan Finley (QB NC State)+12500
Ed Oliver (DL Houston)+12500
Nick Bosa (DL Ohio State)+12500
Justice Hill (RB Oklahoma State)+12500
Stephen Carr (RB USC)+15000
Frank Nutil (QB Temple)+20000
David Sills (WR West Virginia)+22500

Odds as of August 21 at Bovada

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