Naoya Inoue vs David Picasso Odds & Picks

A pound-for-pound showdown awaits in Riyadh on Dec. 27, when undisputed super-bantamweight champion Naoya "The Monster" Inoue defends all four major titles against undefeated Mexican challenger David "El Rey" Picasso in the main event of "Night of the Samurai," streaming live on DAZN.

Inoue, the established pound-for-pound king, is the −3500 favorite, while Picasso sits as the +1300 underdog looking to shock the world in the biggest opportunity of his career.

Inoue vs Picasso Betting Odds

Inoue vs Picasso Odds
Fighter	Odds
Naoya Inoue	−3500
David Picasso	+1300

Inoue vs Picasso Prediction

At its core, this fight pits youth and reach against surgical precision and proven championship pedigree. Picasso, 25, enters undefeated at 32-0-1 with solid fundamentals, including a patient jab, high-volume combinations, and effective body work. However, his best wins over Azat Hovhannisyan and Kyonosuke Kameda represent a massive step down from the elite-level opposition Inoue has dominated throughout his career.

Inoue stands as one of only three male boxers in history to become undisputed champion in two weight classes during the four-belt era, carrying an 87% knockout ratio into this bout. A four-time world champion across four divisions, he commands devastating body attacks, calculated footwork, and the ability to adapt seamlessly whether pursuing a knockout or boxing to a decision. His recent unanimous decision over former unified champion Murodjon Akhmadaliev in September showcased his technical maturity and ring IQ at the highest level.

Picasso's best path to success lies in using his height and reach advantages to keep the fight at jab range, winning early rounds through volume and movement. He must avoid getting trapped on the inside where Inoue's relentless body attack — a weapon he dedicates entire training camps to perfecting — will break him down systematically. However, the experience gap is staggering. While Picasso looked vulnerable in his majority decision over Kameda, Inoue has been battle-tested against world-class opposition throughout 2025, fighting four times and stopping 11 of his last 12 opponents.

In the mid-rounds, expect Inoue's calculated pressure to take over. His ability to close distance, break rhythm, and target the body will force Picasso out of his comfort zone. Once Inoue establishes his body attack and disrupts Picasso's jab, the Mexican's limited defensive fundamentals and lack of one-punch power will leave him vulnerable to the champion's finishing combinations.