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Canelo Alvarez vs Callum Smith Odds Analysis & Prediction

Canelo vs Smith Betting Odds

When Vasyl Lomachenko lost in mid-October, many thought Canelo Alvarez would climb to the No. 1 spot in the pound-for-pound rankings, but he remained in the No. 2 slot. He is set to entertain once again as he takes on Callum Smith, who is putting his WBA (Super) and The Ring super middleweight titles on the line.

The two will collide on Saturday, December 19, at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. The fight can be watched on the streaming service DAZN with the main card starting at 10 p.m. ET.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the Alvarez vs Smith odds and has listed Canelo as the sizable -650 favorite, with Smith coming back at +425. This means you would have to wager $650 to profit $100 with a Canelo win, while a $100 bet on a Smith win would profit you $425.

Canelo vs Smith Odds

FighterCurrent Odds
Canelo Alvarez-650
Callum Smith+425

Odds as of December 18 at Bovada

According to our sports betting calculator, Canelo’s odds of -650 have an implied win probability of 86.67 percent while Smith’s odds of +425 have an implied win probability of 19.05 percent.

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Canelo vs Smith Prediction & Preview

At just 30 years old, this is Alvarez’s 57th pro fight and he has a record of 53-1-2, that lone defeat coming seven years ago to arguably the greatest boxer of all time, Floyd Mayweather. Canelo fought most recently a year ago, making his light heavyweight debut and scoring a knockout over Sergey Kovalev.

Canelo has devastating body shots that he uses early and often to slow his opponents down and open them up for head shots. His outstanding head and body movement allows him to stay in the pocket, avoiding the majority of punches coming his way while being able to counter effectively and powerfully. He employed different styles in his two fights vs Gennady Golovkin, showing he can be a defensive or offensive boxer, which keeps his foes on their heels.

With this fight, Smith is laying his perfect 27-0 record on the line and defending his titles for the third time. “Mundo” picked his way through the World Boxing Super Series with a couple of decision victories before winning the finale with a seventh-round knockout to win his belts.

Smith is a difficult fighter to figure out, standing six-foot-three with a huge 78-inch reach, which is massive for the super middleweight division. He’s effective in keeping fighters at the end of his punches and his style of not using a ton of movement requires his opponents to engage with him, enabling him to just stick them on entry with that reach. He does a good job bending at the hips to avoid damage while countering well.

It will be interesting to see how Alvarez tries to figure out this puzzle as Smith is so patient and so long. Canelo should be the faster boxer in the ring and has the punching power if he can find a way to land. Smith has a big torso that he will need to protect, so I think his path to victory is to pepper Canelo with the jab, storm him with a flurry as a counter and get out before Alvarez fires back.

Prediction: Canelo Alvarez (-650) via decision (+155)