Paul vs Diaz Betting Preview: No Way Nate Gets Any Offense

Well, ain't this a fun one? Jake Paul is booked to fight UFC legend Nate Diaz in an eight-round boxing match on August 5. 

The event takes place at American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas. The fight will be at 185 pounds and can be watched live on DAZN pay-per-view.

While there will undoubtedly be heaps of trash talk and fanfare before this fateful bout, let's look at the odds and who might walk away the victor. 

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Odds

Odds as of May 12

According to our sports betting calculator, Paul's -285 odds give him a 74.03% chance of winning, and a $10 bet on him nets $13.51. Diaz's +220 status gives him an implied 31.25% chance, with $10 paying out $32. 

Paul vs Diaz Preview: Who Will Win?

It's weird to say it, but Paul is the more experienced boxer. Diaz has infinite mileage in the MMA world, but the heavier gloves and lack of grappling could loom large.

How Paul Wins

The 26-year-old's size advantage will play in the ring. While both fighters boast an identical 76-inch reach, Paul will be bigger and stronger than the wiry Diaz by fight night. He needs to pressure Nate, cut off the angles and keep the Stockton, California native pressed against the ropes. Diaz is usually willing to accept punishment if it means an opportunity to counter, so Paul will have a lane to attack all evening. 

After a lack of creativity stunted him in a loss to Tommy Fury, Paul needs to get vicious. No more tapping with the jab; instead, he needs to rip the body and blitz in for the occasional overhand. 

How Diaz Wins

Predicting Diaz's avenue to victory is like what nonsensical rant will come out of his mouth — it might surprise or disappoint, but it's never what you expect.

And with Diaz, there are always so many variables. What shape will he be in? Can he create any juice on his punches with heavier gloves? He's 38 years old, how much abuse can his body take?

I'm not ready to count Diaz out, but without a grappling edge, it's so hard for him to win. He's a southpaw — that'll help a bit — but his slapping, lunging style doesn't play so well in boxing. The only route I see for a Diaz win is if he hangs around until the later rounds and cranks it up with a flurry of hooks. Diaz often preys on tired opponents. Maybe Paul's cardio falters and Stockton's finest takes advantage. 

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Pick

In a pure boxing contest, Paul will win. He's younger, stronger and more experienced in this discipline. Nate is slippery and his chin might hold up, but there's no way he churns out enough offense to make this close.

Pick: Paul (-285) by decision (TBD)