Forte is favored to win the Kentucky Derby
Horse Racing

2023 Kentucky Derby Picks: Derma Sotogake The Bet To Make

It’s the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby. This year’s favorite to win the Run for the Roses is Florida Derby winner Forte at +300.

This is the first leg of the Triple Crown and we may see a horse emerge from the Derby and shoot himself to greatness by following up in the Belmont Stakes and the Preakness Stakes.

Betting Odds To Win The Kentucky Derby
Tapit Trice+600
Angel Of Empire+600
Derma Sotogake+900
Practical Move+1000
Two Phil's+1200
Confidence Game+1800
Mandarin Hero+2000

Odds as of May 4

Kentucky Derby Picks - Best Bets: Forte (+325)

The big question for many people watching the Kentucky Derby on Saturday is how to wager and what type of bet should they be placing. Let’s look at some of the common bet types and also take a look at Kentucky Derby exotics, which are bets that can get you a life-changing amount of money for a small stake.

Kentucky Derby Win Pick

Although the draw has not been kind, we still like the chance of Derma Sotogake who is now 9/1 from 6/1 on the morning line odds, and that looks fair value for bettors who like to bet across the board (win, place, and show).

Kentucky Derby Win, Place & Show Picks

Picking a horse out that could hit the board at big odds is great for a fun bet on The Kentucky Derby, and well worth the $6 investment if you are just playing for fun and having a Kentucky Derby barbecue party with friends and family.

Make sure to read our Kentucky Derby Sleeper Picks where we’ll share with you our big odds across-the-board picks.

Kentucky Derby Exotics Picks

Exotics are a great fun bet and can pay huge dividends for a small wager, especially in the Kentucky Derby where you have twenty runners.

As an example, Rich Strikes' win last year meant some big returns for some lucky horseplayers.

  • The 2022 Kentucky Derby Exacta paid $4,101.20 for a $2 ticket
  • The 2022 Kentucky Derby Trifecta paid $14870.70 for a $1 ticket
  • The 2022 Kentucky Derby Superfecta paid $321,500.10 for a $1 ticket

So whichever horses you pick, we wish you the best of luck with your wagers

When is the Kentucky Derby?

The 2023 Kentucky Derby meet starts at 2:30 p.m. ET and runs to 7:30 pm ET on NBC.

Big Race Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET so expect the race to end around 7 p.m. ET.

As the famous saying goes…..”The most exciting two minutes in sports”

Kentucky Derby Field And Final Draw

The draw can play a very important part in this race and two of the leading fancies Forte (15) and Derma Sotogake (17) have both been dealt hammer blows in the draw.

Other fancied runners have fared much better with Tapit Trice in post position 5 and Practical Move in post position 10.

The post draw is important as the higher the number, the wider your horse is into the first left-hand turn. It is very difficult to win from a wide draw as history proves and gates 4 and 5 have proved the best post positions down the years.

Kentucky Derby Trials

We are expecting a bumper field of 20 come post time on Saturday, May 6. So let’s look at some of the key trials and how they unfolded.

2023 Louisiana Derby

Kingsbarns +900 (9/1)

Kingsbarns went wire-to-wire in Louisiana. It wasn't even particularly close at the end. The Parks Investment Group product brushed aside an early challenge from Jace's Road in the first turn, but having the inside lane allowed Kingsbarns to pull through.

Race favorite Instant Coffee was nowhere near the podium on this one.

That kind of end-to-end run is the stuff that gets a horse noticed. When the field is widdled down to the best of the best like the Kentucky Derby, betting out the rest easily shows some true winning potential.

At +1200 to win the Kentucky Derby, you can make $120 on a $10 winning bet backing what seems like a dominant horse.

2023 Florida Derby

Forte -500 (1/5)

It looked like the favorite was down and out going into the second turn. But somehow, Forte was able to run down the leading pack and pull out the unlikely win.

If you haven't seen the run yet, make sure to watch it here. It's an impressive display from the South Gate Farms product.

In the last six years, all six winners were in the top three at the second call. Forte's run showed a lot of tactical speed. No need to burn out the horse to start the race at the top. Keep pace and then explode near the end.

We've already gone over Forte's favorite credentials for the Kentucky Derby, this gives you the eye test to back it up.

2022 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

Tapit Trice +160 (8/4)

Much like Forte in the Florida Derby, Tapit Trice came from the middle of the pack midway through the 1-mile race to sneak out a win.

It was a tense dual down the final stretch between Tapit Trice and Verify. The Todd Pletcher-trained Tapit Trice won by a head.

Tapit Trice holds the second-best odds to win the Kentucky Derby at +700. I'm not so sure I'd put this horse that high up the list considering Tapit Trice sits fourth on the points board with 150 points.

Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners

Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners
2022Rich Strike+8000
2019Country House+3000
2017Always Dreaming+450
2015American Pharoah+300
2014California Chrome+250


Look at that value in the last few years when it comes to betting on the Kentucky Derby winner! The average odds to win for the last four winners is +3250.

This is why the Derby so popular, not only is there is a lot of money to be made but that also means there are plenty of upsets to watch in the main race.