The 151st edition of the "Run for the Roses" kicks off on May 3rd, so it's time to lock in your 2025 Kentucky Derby picks.
For this first leg of the Triple Crown, I've got my best bets below. I gave you Mystik Dan as a +2500 sleeper to win last year, so let's profit on the ponies again. Be sure to check out the full list of Kentucky Derby odds here.
Kentucky Derby Contenders
It's important to note, no Kentucky Derby favorite has won the race since Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018.
journalism +250
A winner of four straight races, Journalism enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby as the heavy favorite. He drew post eight in a field of 20 horses, so should be well positioned for a good start. A stalking-type runner, Journalism will likely look be gain position behind the lead group, before exploding around the final turn. Trainer Michael McCarthy is confident his post can lead to Derby success. Journalism is coming off a resounding victory in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, and is sired by 2007 and 2008 horse of the year Curlin. The pedigree and speed are there for Journalism to win the 151st Kentucky Derby.
"Write this down. Journalism is the best in the west as he wins the Santa Anita Derby!" pic.twitter.com/1S7Q5r1Dyi
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) April 6, 2025
sovereignty +500
A Churchill Downs veteran, Sovereignty has proven he can run on dirt, running away with the 2025 Fountain of Youth before coming second to Tappan Street at the Florida Derby. Sired by Into Mischief a Grade 1 stakes winner, Sovereignty has the speed and experience to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby Best Bet: Luxor Cafe +800
The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Japanese bred horse Luxor Cafe enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby on a four-race winning streak. In fact, Luxor Cafe destroyed the competition his last time out, winning the Fukuryu Stakes by five lengths over fellow Derby participant Admire Daytona.
Most importantly, Luxor Cafe ran the final three-eighths of that race at a warp speed of 36.51 seconds, coming from the back of the pack to lay waste to the competition. This is especially telling for his chances next Saturday, as 20 of the last 27 Derby winners have finished the final three-eights of their last prep race in under 38 seconds.
At +800 odds, Luxor Cafe is the horse to beat.
When is the Kentucky Derby?
The 2025 Kentucky Derby meet will occur on the afternoon of Saturday, May 3rd. Big Race Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET so expect the race to end around 7 p.m. ET.
The race will be happen before you know it, so be sure to lock in your bets early. As the famous saying goes, it's "the most exciting two minutes in sports.”
Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners
| Year | Winner | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mystik Dan | +2500 |
| 2023 | Mage | +1500 |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | +8000 |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | +1200 |
| 2020 | Authentic | +800 |
| 2019 | Country House | +3000 |
| 2018 | Justify | +300 |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | +450 |
| 2016 | Nyquist | +250 |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | +300 |
Look at that value in the last few years when it comes to betting on the Kentucky Derby winner! The average odds to win for the last four winners is around +3300. This is why the Derby so popular. There is a ton of profit to be made as underdogs take center stage.
