Kalshi Markets Today
The price for the Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl continues to tick up at Kalshi. Are they cruising toward a Lombardi Trophy, or is a longer shot going to crush their dreams? That’s one of the top prediction market trends and angles we’re examining this week. We’ll also take a look at the tightening race to be President Trump’s nominee for Fed Chair, plus other key markets and news we’re keeping an eye on.
Kalshi Sports Prediction markets
Trading Angle: Pro Football Champion
Heading into the season, the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, and Ravens were considered the top favorites to win Super Bowl LX. As Week 15 winds down, the Rams (22 cents) are comfortably in the lead as the pricing favorite on Kalshi, with their price rising three points in recent days.
Los Angeles moved to 11-3 with a 41-34 win over the visiting Lions on Sunday, clinching a playoff berth in the process. A showdown with the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football is up next. The Seahawks (11 cents) are currently third in Super Bowl pricing and also 11-3.
Interestingly, the two teams are also tops in point differential. Seattle leads at +163, followed by Los Angeles at +159. The Patriots, 11-3 and atop the AFC East, are third at +106. While far from a guarantee, point differential leaders are often strong contenders to win the big game.
In current Kalshi pricing, just two other teams are priced at a dime or more to win it all: the Bills (13 cents) and Broncos (10 cents). Following Sunday’s results, just 20 teams remain alive for the postseason. Here are two contenders we’re keeping our eye on.
Pro Football Champion: Eagles (9 cents)
It has been an uneven season for the defending Super Bowl champs, but Sunday may have been the start of the team snapping out of its funk. They decimated the visiting Raiders 31-0 to move to 9-5. Here’s why we’re not dismissing the potential for a repeat bid.
- Momentum: Yes, the victory came at the expense of the hapless Raiders, but it was downright dominant. Philadelphia held Las Vegas to 75 total yards, while the offense finally clicked and scored four times. It was the type of combined effort that could wake the team from its slumber and see it return to firing on all cylinders.
- Clear path: The Eagles are entirely in control of the NFC East race, with two of their final three games against the 4-10 Commanders. Take care of business in those two, and they at least secure a home game in the opening round of the playoffs. Win all three, and they enter the playoffs as a hot team that no one wants to face.
- Experience: Once they officially punch their dance card, it’ll be the fifth consecutive trip to the playoffs for the Eagles. They’ve advanced to the Super Bowl twice over this run, going 1-1. Recent experience at the highest stakes can’t be discounted when the calendar turns to January, making Philadelphia a dangerous opponent.
Pro Football Champion: Jaguars (4 cents)
The Jaguars generally aren’t in the conversation of legitimate contenders. Contracts for them to win it all are priced for less than a nickel as a result. Based on the team’s current trajectory, that could turn out to be a steal.
- Recent play: The Jaguars have ripped off a five-game winning streak, taking four of those contests by double digits. Since an uneven 5-4 start, the team has managed to put things together in a big way and establish serious momentum.
- Destiny control: Jacksonville is atop the AFC South at 10-4. Win their final three, and the division crown is theirs. That’ll be easier said than done with a road game at the 12-2 Broncos on tap for Sunday, but the incentive for a strong close is crystal clear.
- Team stats: They’re 8th in the league in points scored per game (26.9) and tied for 10th in points allowed per contest (20.9). Stats alone don’t tell the whole story, but that’s an established recipe for success.
What To Watch For
The Rams-Seahawks TNF showdown could decide the NFC West. We can expect the winner of this one to see their “Pro Football Champion” price spike, while the loser’s will likely drop.
There are several other matchups of postseason hopefuls on tap for the week ahead, each of which could impact the big game pricing board.
- Packers vs. Bears
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers
- Jaguars vs. Broncos
- Steelers vs. Lions
- Patriots vs. Ravens
- 49ers vs. Colts
Of those 12 teams, only the Broncos (10 cents) are priced above a dime. A convincing victory for any of the above is likely to result in at least a slight Kalshi price spike.
Kalshi Political Markets
Trending: Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
President Trump has made no secret of his displeasure with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. His term ends in May 2026, and the president will nominate his successor. The market for who that will be has flipped, with a new name now at the top of the Kalshi prediction market price board.
- The case for Kevin Warsh: The president noted on Friday that the former Fed governor is now at the top of the list. Kalshi traders have listened, with Warsh’s price climbing to 48 cents, a seven-point spike.
- The case for Kevin Hassett: The Director of the National Economic Council has long been viewed as the frontrunner, and Trump noted he’s still in the running. His price has dipped to 41 cents, a decline of nine points.
- The case for someone else: In those same comments, Trump left the door open, noting that he “thinks there are a couple of other people that are great.” Christopher Waller, a current member of the Fed board, is third in pricing at six cents.
How Will It All Play Out?
There’s no set timeline for the decision, meaning this market could continue to move quickly based on comments made by the president. While he gave a clear answer on his leanings recently, the media doesn’t tend to leave hot topics alone.
There will be more questions about the Fed, his views on the direction of the economy and interest rates, and what he’s looking for in a successor to Powell. Based on what he says at the time, pricing on Kalshi will quickly adjust.
For his second term in office, Trump seems more inclined to lean toward those who are outside of the “establishment.” A curveball can’t be ruled out, but Warsh and Hassett are the clear frontrunners until he indicates otherwise.
Before the recent shift, Hassett’s chances had spiked to over 80% on Kalshi. This could be a good opportunity to secure some contracts at a discount, while also keeping an eye out for any potential dark horses that may be introduced before their prices skyrocket.
This Week’s Other Kalshi market Trends & Angles
- NFL MVP winner? The price for Matthew Stafford (74 cents) has jumped 15 points in the past day. Drake Maye (14 cents) and Josh Allen (13 cents) are jockeying for second. It could be a good time to grab contracts on Maye or Allen at a discount, as prices could spike if Stafford has a tough night on TNF.
- Who will be the next permanent head coach of Michigan? Jedd Fisch (44 cents) is the current leader, but Kenny Dillingham (18 cents) was atop the board two short days ago. The Wolverines could look to move on from a rough week, so that the rumor mill could lead to some more quick price changes.
- Who will be the first to leave Trump’s cabinet? Headlines continue to shift on which cabinet member is on the thinnest ice. Off the current cycle, Kristi Noem (31 cents) has moved into first, with Pete Hegseth (22 cents) in second. For clues on price shifts, stay tuned to which cabinet member is drawing the most negative media attention.
Prediction Market News To Know
- Prediction market operators Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Underdog are joining forces to form the Coalition for Prediction Markets, a trade group within the industry.
- Underdog is pulling its sportsbook from North Carolina, a further sign of the fantasy sports giant’s growing prediction market interest.
- Betr, a rising betting app backed by Jake Paul, has filed for National Futures Association approval to become an Introducing Broker.
Other Prediction Markets We’re Watching
- New arrivals: Kalshi has introduced additional markets for the World Cup, including Group A winners and qualifiers.
- Year-end: Look for spikes in markets that will resolve at the end of the year, such as closing prices for Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500.
- College Football Playoffs: The CFP kicks off this week. Each game should have little trouble doing eight figures in volume.
Closing Thoughts
The NFL regular season is winding down. There will be numerous standalone games to look forward to from here through the holidays, all of which will likely be heavily traded. The CFP will also attract a significant amount of interest, especially for the games that come down to the wire.
Beyond sports, there’s always something happening, providing plenty of opportunity to monitor trends and dig for angles. Consistent volume drivers, such as Federal Reserve decisions and Bitcoin prices, are always active, while the news cycle can quickly drive spikes in activity elsewhere.
