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UEFA Champions League Odds and Predictions

Manchester City is the favorite in the UEFA Champions League Odds

Just before Europe’s biggest national tournament begins, Europe’s most prestigious club tournament ends. Manchester City and Chelsea will compete in the UEFA Champions League final on Saturday, May 29. We break down all the Champions League odds across sportsbooks to assist you in your decision-making process for the big finale.

According to BetOnline’s Champions League odds, Manchester City is the comfortable favorite to lift the trophy at odds of -240, while Chelsea is currently at +200. 

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Odds to Win Champions League

TeamOdds
Manchester City-240
Chelsea+200

Odds as of May 26 at BetOnline

Route to the Final

Manchester City has seemed right at home in the Champions League this season. It started off its 2021 campaign by winning Group C without much hassle. Even the knockout games have been close to flawless performances. In the Round of 16, Manchester City beat Borussia Monchengladbach by an aggregate score of 4-0.

In the quarters, Manchester City beat Borussia Dortmund 4-2 before eventually prevailing over defending runner-up PSG in the semis by a combined scoreline of 4-1.

As you would expect, Chelsea hasn’t had as aggressive a campaign so far. After it won Group E, a focus on defense and a change in management has helped Chelsea consolidate its position as one of the best teams in the world.

In the Round of 16, Chelsea beat Atletico Madrid 3-0 before also defeating Porto 2-1 across two legs. Chelsea’s major test came in the semis against Spanish powerhouse Real Madrid. Chelsea aced that challenge as well, beating Real Madrid by an aggregate of 3-1.

Favorites to Win the Champions League

Manchester City (-240) has been simply unstoppable this season under manager Pep Guardiola. The team will be additionally buoyant after lifting the EPL trophy this past Sunday in front of its home fans. It is understandably hard to see Chelsea (+200) having enough depth defensively to be able to stave off this resurgent Manchester City lineup.

There are several factors at play here, not least the Champions League odds being well in favor of Manchester City. Kevin De Bruyne returned to the Manchester City attack in a 5-0 thumping of Everton on Sunday. Along with Raheem Sterling, Phil Foden, Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus, Manchester City’s offensive core is settled. How will Chelsea manage to stop Manchester City in the final third? That’s a question Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel will be losing sleep on too.

Another factor is Manchester City’s unprecedented success in the Champions League itself. It has remained unbeaten in this tournament so far, with 11 wins and the solitary draw. Chelsea has won eight, drawn three and lost one game in this Champions League tournament so far.

Chelsea won’t be a pushover. This is not a new stage and the spotlight is not too bright for a tried and tested team. “We know what they’re about now and it’s going to be a really big challenge in the final, but it’s just a one-off game, anything can happen,” Foden said of Chelsea as competitors.

However, there is a massive gulf in quality and skill, at least on paper. Olivier Giroud is Chelsea’s top goalscorer in this tournament so far with six. Despite compelling Champions League odds of +200 for one of the best teams in Europe, I’d stay away from Chelsea simply because of Manchester City’s sheer and utter dominance this season.

Betting Tip 1: Manchester City to Lift the Trophy (-240)

Manchester City’s implied probability to lift the trophy, according to Odds Shark’s calculator, is 70.59 percent.

How Will the Teams Stack Up?

Manchester City’s lineup is more or less settled. Guardiola has preferred a distinct team for European competitions, largely due to rotation and workload management. That’s unlikely in the biggest European club game. Phil Foden should start along with Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez. Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero, in his last game for Manchester City, could start on the bench.

Cesar Azpilicueta was sent off after a lash-out on Jack Grealish in the closing stages of the final game of the Premier League. That won’t impact his presence in this game, especially considering his importance as Chelsea’s leader. Offensively, Timo Werner, Mason Mount and Christian Pulisic will likely form an attacking triangle with N’Golo Kante playing as the holding midfielder.

The Moneyline Market

Odds for Champions League Final in 90 Minutes
ResultOdds
Chelsea+365
Manchester City-115
Draw+250

Odds as of May 26 at BetOnline

Strategy for 90-Minutes Betting

This is a tricky market. Manchester City is expected to win comfortably as Champions League odds of -115 attest to. However, don’t discount the possibility of the draw (+250) either.

Up to this point of the tournament, Manchester City is averaging more than two shots more per game than Chelsea. Manchester City has averaged 13.58 shots per game (163 total attempts). A little under half (72) have been on target. Chelsea, on the other hand, has averaged 11.5 shots per game. Of its 138 shots, 57 have been on target. These aren’t irrelevant stats for this market because it’s indicative of the style of these two teams.

From a pure probability standpoint, if Manchester City and Chelsea meet their respective season averages of attempts per game, two extra shots could yield one on target and potentially a goal. In normal time, each goal will cause extremes on either end of the emotional spectrum.

For this market, the probability and the personnel are currently with Manchester City. If I had to choose one of the three outcomes, it would be Manchester City to win in normal time. However, if I had to choose between this and the “To Lift the Trophy” market, I’d prefer the lower-risk option of the latter.

Betting Tip 2: Manchester City to win in 90 minutes (-115)

The implied probability of this outcome, according to Odds Shark’s calculator, is 53.49 percent.

Goals: OVER/UNDER

Odds for Total Goals to be Scored
OutcomeOdds
OVER 2.5 goals-106
UNDER 2.5 goals-114

Odds as of May 26 at BetOnline

Betting Strategy

It is no surprise that Manchester City has been one of the most accurate passing teams in this Champions League. It has completed 7,630 of 8,524 passes attempted, with a completion rate of 90 percent. The average ball possession in this tournament is 58 percent. In terms of time, Manchester City has held the ball for 38 minutes per game, the most in the Champions League.

Manchester City, under Guardiola, has been simply sensational while transitioning through phases. That’s because it hasn’t deployed a typical high-press style, like Bayern Munich, but has still managed to score 25 goals, second-most in the Champions League. In terms of averages in this competition, Manchester City has scored 2.08 per game and conceded 0.33, with a total average of 2.41 goals per game.

Interestingly, Chelsea isn’t too far behind either. It has scored 22 goals (1.83 goals per game) and conceded four (0.33 per game). Its total average – both scored and conceded – is 2.16 goals per game.

That’s a fair indicator that both these teams have enough offensive depth to score comfortably. Even in their Premier League appearances, there have been goals aplenty.

With Champions League odds of -106 for OVER 2.5 goals in 90 minutes in this game, I know where I’d be leaning for the total goals market for the final.

Betting Tip 3: Total goals to be OVER 2.5 (-106)

The implied probability of this outcome, according to Odds Shark’s calculator, is 51.46 percent.

Key Quotes From the Managers and Players

“We fought together and we’re in the final of the Champions League, and those are nice words. People believe it’s easy to get to the final of the Champions League. Getting to the final now makes sense of what we have done in the past four or five years. Every day these guys have been consistent and this is remarkable.”
– Pep Guardiola, Manchester City manager

“As a child, you dream of these matches and it’s like watching the moon – it’s so, so far away. Once you’re in it, you’re just in it. I don’t hesitate to say that Manchester City and Bayern have been the benchmark in Europe this season and last season. We are trying to close the gap and the good thing is, in football, you can close gaps in 90 minutes.”
– Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea manager

“We started to love this game because of the emotions that are transported to the pitch from the outside. The connection from the people in the stand to the players on the pitch was something we were used to. It got taken from us last year and it was difficult to deal with.”
– Ilkay Gundogan, Manchester City midfielder