The Champions League title odds suggest holders Manchester City will defend their title with an implied odd of 36%. A whole 20% better than the next club, fellow Premier League side Arsenal.
If you're looking for a dark horse, look no further than Atletico Madrid who've already taken a big step to the semi-finals.
2023-24 Champions League Title Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | +160 |
| Arsenal | +550 |
| Bayern Munich | +700 |
| Barcelona | +700 |
| Real Madrid | +700 |
| Atletico Madrid | +900 |
| Paris St-Germain | +1400 |
| Dortmund | +3500 |
Odds as of April 15
Champions League Quarter-Final Matchups
The draw is complete and we know what sides will face off in a two-leg quarter-final. Here are all four matchups as well as the scores from the first leg.
| Team 1 | Team 2 | First Leg Result | Second Leg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Bayern Munich | 2-2 | April 16, 3 PM ET (Allianz Arena) |
| Real Madrid | Manchester City | 3-3 | April 16, 3 PM ET (Etihad Stadium) |
| PSG | Barcelona | 2-3 | April 16, 3 PM ET (Estadi Olimpic) |
| Atletico Madrid | Dortmund | 2-1 | April 16, 3 PM ET (Signal Iduna Park) |
Champions League Favorites: Manchester City
City easily qualified for the knockout stage after dominating Group G with six wins and a +11 goal differential. On that merit alone it's easy to see why they're the favorites. Then they dispatched Copenhagen rather easily. Sure, it was a lucky draw for the defending champs but they took care of it as Champions do.
Domestically, the Citizens haven't lost since early December against Aston Villa. In the 17 games since that loss, City holds a glowing 13-4-0 record with an even nicer +26 goal differential.
But they were put to the test by Real Madrid in a back-and-forth 3-3 draw during the first-leg. Powering back from a 2-1 deficit was clutch for City. And now the tie heads to the Etihad where City holds a commanding 18-6-0 record meanwhile Madrid is 16-4-2.
We have to remember that Real are 8-3-6 against English opponents in the Champions League since 2019-20. City should move on past Real. Books tend to agree with -110 odds of reaching the Final.
Champions League Value Bet: Atletico Madrid
I previously thought Inter Milan would go all the way to the Finals. Atletico sought to that by taking out my dark horse pick through penalties in the Round of 16.
And now they're building on that with a 2-1 win over Dortmund in the quarters. Diego Simeone's men impressed not just with the scoreline but in play. Even though they held a measly 33% of possession, Madrid had 54% of the shot attempts and 69% of the shots on target. Again, impressive.
Madrid took out a defensive powerhouse in Inter Milan and are now matching a free-flowing Dortmund team. It doesn't matter the style of play, Atleti can play (and beat) the best of them.
Last 10 Champions League Winners
| Year | Club | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Manchester City | +250 |
| 2022 | Real Madrid | +1400 |
| 2021 | Chelsea | +2000 |
| 2020 | Bayern Munich | +1200 |
| 2019 | Liverpool | +1200 |
| 2018 | Real Madrid | +400 |
| 2017 | Real Madrid | +520 |
| 2016 | Real Madrid | +530 |
| 2015 | Barcelona | +550 |
| 2014 | Real Madrid | +500 |
After seeing four of the last five winners have opening odds above +1000, we got back to the favorites winning the competition last season. On September 6, 2022, City had +250 odds and went all the way to win the crown.
