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UEFA Champions League Odds and Top Goalscorer Predictions

Manchester City is the favorite in the UEFA Champions League Odds

The UEFA Champions League is back in April with eight teams set to play four ties, and berths in the semifinals up for grabs.

Will there be more upsets? Or will the favorites sail through the upcoming quarterfinals? We break down some of the outright markets for Europe’s most prestigious soccer club tournament.

At Bovada, Manchester City is the +200 betting favorite in 2020-21 UEFA Champions League odds. Bayern Munich (+350), Chelsea (+450), Liverpool (+600) and PSG (+800) round out the top five clubs on the oddsboard.

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Odds to Win the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League

Manchester City+200
Bayern Munich+350
Paris Saint-Germain+800
Real Madrid+1000
Borussia Dortmund+3300

Odds as of March 26 at Bovada

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Will Bayern Munich Defend its Title?

The short answer is it’s likely. Bayern Munich (+350) cruised past Lazio in the Round of 16, winning 4-1 in the first leg and 2-1 in the second. Their implied probability to win the Champions League at this point is a little over 22 percent according to our sports betting calculator.

The German club scored 43 goals in the 2019-20 campaign, an indicator of their preferred pace of play. That modus operandi won’t change even though that high press may be responsible for conceding a vital goal at home. Bayern’s biggest challenge will likely come in the form of a matchup with Manchester City if they do meet.

In terms of form, Bayern Munich has won seven of eight games in this tournament so far. It is, rather unsurprisingly, leading all teams in goals scored (24 in eight games). Its goal differential of 17 is also the best in the Champions League. The Bavarian side is averaging 15 attempts per game to end an offensive phase.

They get into that position with utter dominance in the middle third of a soccer pitch: they have an efficient pass conversion rate of 86 percent and are also jointly leading this tournament in average ball possession (60 percent per game).

Other Outright Champions League Picks

Manchester City (+200) has been unmatched and unparalleled in the English Premier League this season. It woefully underperformed last year, considering the quality and depth of its roster as well as management.

It is heavily favored to ease past Borussia Dortmund (+1400) in the quarters, considering it now has a healthier squad, particularly with Kevin De Bruyne back from injury. Manchester City has the highest implied probability to win, at a little over 30 percent, according to current odds.

Also, a good rule of thumb would be to never discount the recent champions. Liverpool (+600) has had a woeful season back in England, plagued by injuries and an inexplicably drastic loss of form. With the EPL title out of its reckoning, the Champions League might be the prize it is looking for at the end of a torturous year.

Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino still form one of the most potent combinations in world soccer. Their first test in that bid is Spanish powerhouse Real Madrid.

To Reach UEFA Champions League Finals odds
Manchester City+100
Bayern Munich+200
Real Madrid+275
Paris Saint-Germain+400
Borussia Dortmund+1200

Odds as of March 26 at Bovada

Champions League Quarterfinals Schedule

Tournament favorite Manchester City (+200) has been drawn to face Borussia Dortmund on April 7, while Real Madrid (+1000) and Liverpool will kick off from the Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano at the same time.

Defending champion Bayern Munich and PSG will face each other on April 8 in a repeat of last year’s final. Chelsea (+450), a compelling underdog for the title under new manager Thomas Tuchel, will fancy its chances to advance to the semis after being drawn to face Porto.

The three-way moneyline for each of these quarterfinals is quite interesting. Bayern Munich begins at home against PSG, which makes it favored to win the first leg. Considering the quality among both teams, Real Madrid and Liverpool’s moneyline is likely to stay around EVEN for all three results across both legs.

The most favored team across this stage is Manchester City at home against Borussia Dortmund in the first leg. That’s not surprising because of the difference in skill and depth.

Who Will be the Top Goalscorer in the Champions League?

Considering Erling Haaland (-250) has an overwhelming lead in this market, he is the simple choice for the top goalscorer. He has scored 10 goals in six games thus far. The next position on that list is shared by six players – Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, Alvaro Morata, Olivier Giroud, Marcus Rashford and Youssef En-Nesyri – with six goals apiece.

Let’s further break down this market because Robert Lewandowski (+600) is discernible by his absence. If Bayern does make the final and Dortmund doesn’t, then Lewandowski would have significantly more time on the pitch to add to his tournament tally.

Just how much more? Based on probability, instinct and quarterfinal draw, Lewandowski might not score too many against PSG, but that’s also true for Haaland considering Dortmund is likely to crash out after two legs against Manchester City. Lewandowski’s value might increase substantially in the following rounds, including the final. If you’re looking for a punt, Lewandowski still makes prudent sense.

Odds to Be 2020-21 Champions League Top Scorer

Champions League Top Scorer Odds
Erling Haaland-250
Robert Lewandowski+600
Kylian Mbappe+600
Karim Benzema+2500
Mohamed Salah+2500
Olivier Giroud+2500
Sadio Mane+3300
Kingsley Coman+3500
Ciro Immobile+4000

Odds as of March 26 at Bovada

Which Nation will the Winner of the Champions League Come From?

It might not matter if you look at this market as a math problem. You will still have to use your gut to eliminate certain options, such as France (+700) and Spain (+1000).

An English winner (-165) is most likely simply because three out of the eight teams remaining (37.5 percent of the pool) are from the EPL, in Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool. The next likely nation is Germany (+275) because two of the eight teams remaining (25 percent of the pool) are from the Bundesliga, in Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.

Now, let’s apply a bit of math. Your return on a $3 bet for an English winner will net you a profit of about $1.80. But your return on a $1 bet for a German winner will get you a profit of about $3, depending on your preferred sportsbook. If you scale this model from two nations, which cover over 60 percent of the pool, you can still pocket a handy profit.

Nation to Win Champions League Odds
Any Other Country+3300

Odds as of March 26 at Bovada

We’ll return soon to update this page for the semifinals as the markets and teams topple after an expectedly entertaining quarterfinal stage.