Champions League Odds Final

Champions League Title Odds: How Real Madrid Or Dortmund Can Win Final

The Champions League will be won by either Real Madrid or Borussia Dortmund. The clash is set for June 1 at London's Wembley Stadium with kick-off at 3 PM ET.

I've had a Drake-level curse when it comes to picking the eventual winner in this competition. So instead of picking a winner, I'm going to lay out how each side can win the Final on June 1.


2023-24 Champions League Title Odds

Odds to Win 2023-24 UEFA Champions League
TeamOddsOpening Odds
Real Madrid-340+800

Odds as of May 9

Odds makers have backed Real Madrid to win their 15th Champions League title. It's hard to argue too much, again, they've won this competition 14 times already. Meanwhile, Dortmund has 0 Champions League trophies. They did reach the Final in 2013 (also at Wembley oddly enough).

Madrid has club-level name recognition as well as a cast of household names on the pitch. I bet a majority of those tunning into the Final couldn't name Dortmund's club captain*. Not to mention Dortmund was never seen as likely to win with +3300 opening odds. 

*It's Emre Can.

Champions League Final Game Lines

Champions League Final Game Lines
Real Madrid-170O2.5 (-165)-0.5 (-190)
Dortmund+425U2.5 (+120)+0.5 (+125)

If you think Madrid is definitely going to win this competition I'd look at placing a bet on the moneyline rather than on the futures market. The odds are -170 instead of -340. That's a doubling up of profits by playing the ML. A $10 bet would net you $5.88 in profit instead of $2.94 betting on the futures market. 

Sure, Madrid has to win in regular time but eight of the last nine finals were resolved in regulation.

Champions League Final: Why Real Madrid Wins

Offense. Madrid has scored an average of 1.94 goals per 90 in the competition so far. That's the third-best rate in the league after the two Machester sides. Scoring nearly two goals per match has been enough in recent finals. The last five champions just needed to score a single goal to win the championship.

Unlike other teams (*cough*Bayern*cough*) who've got that one talismanic player up top, Madrid has four players who can chip in with goals. Four of Real's players have five goals in this competition. No other side can match that type of spread-out production. 

Dortmund's top scorer is Niclas Fullkrug with three goals. 

Real wins by simply overwhelming a well-organized Dortmund team that allows the sixth-most passes into the final third in the tournament (per 90) at 39.7.

Champions League Final: Why Dortmund Wins

It's all about defense with BVB. Dortmund has the best defensive record in the competition with 0.64 goals against per 90. Looking back at the last five competitions the teams with the best (and second-best) defense have won three times.

Champions League Winner Defensive Record
YearTeamGA/90 (Rank)
2022Manchester City0.38 (1)
2021Real Madrid1.02 (8)
2020Chelsea0.31 (1)
2019Bayern Munich0.64 (2)
2018Liverpool0.85 (6)


Dortmund proved themselves defensively by keeping PSG and the current best-player in the world Kylian Mbappé goalless over a two-leg semi-final. 

And look, we can't disrespect Dortmund's path to the Final. Based on each of their opponent's form (points) in their respective leagues and that league's UEFA coefficient, Dortmund had a tougher path than Real. Defense matters a lot in this (and any other) tournament. 

Last 10 Champions League Winners

Last 10 Champions League Winners
YearClubOpening Odds
2023Manchester City+250
2022Real Madrid+1400
2020Bayern Munich+1200
2018Real Madrid+400
2017Real Madrid+520
2016Real Madrid+530
2014Real Madrid+500


After seeing four of the last five winners have opening odds above +1000, we got back to the favorites winning the competition last season. On September 6, 2022, City had +250 odds and went all the way to win the crown. 

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