Lopes vs Ortega Odds & Picks: A Fiery New Co-Main Event

There's a new co-main for UFC 303, where Diego Lopes is a -138 favorite over Brian Ortega, the +110 underdog. 

This Lopes-Ortega matchup on June 29 replaces the original UFC 303 co-main between Jamahal Hill and Carlos Ulberg. The new main event now features Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira. Also of significant, Ortega and Lopes will now fight at lightweight after Ortega endured a tough weight cut, forcing the bout up a division.

Here's our full Lopes vs Ortega preview, featuring odds and best bets.

Lopes vs Ortega Odds

UFC 303: Lopes vs Ortega Odds
Diego Lopes-138
Brian Ortega+110

Odds as of June 28

Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Lopes at -138 odds pays out $172.46. The same $100 on Ortega nets $210.

How To Watch UFC 303: Pereira vs prochazka 2

  • Date/Time: June 29, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: T-Mobile Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Betting Preview: How Lopes Wins

Lopes is dynamite. The young Brazilian burst onto the scene with his cool hair and flying BJJ skills, but he's established a reputation as a full-fledged martial artist. I'm not yet ready to call Lopes a future champion, but a win over Ortega would certainly get him in the title picture. 

Lopes is an aggressive grappler, capable of securing submissions or playing defense to an opponent's advances. And now we know Lopes has iron hands after his KO victory vs Sodiq Yusuff at UFC 300. 

Ortega is pretty durable but not an elite defender. He can take a punch, but he's hard to put away. The American also sets decent BJJ traps when opponents don't expect it, so Lopes must be appropriately cautious.

In the end, I'm very comfortable betting Lopes straight up at -150 odds. It's too risky to wager on a finish in a three-round fight.

Betting Preview: How Ortega Wins

Ortega's victory over Yair Rodriguez is a good example of how he can get it done vs a hungry dude like Lopes. Brian took a mighty beating from the Mexican early in that last fight, suffering multiple knockdowns before locking in a third-round triangle choke.

I'm not sure if Ortega can compare to Lopes' physical skills (speed, power, etc.), but he's crafty, and that's always been his best ability. Oddly enough, a knockdown and position on his back might not even be the worst thing in the world. Think back to his infamous near-guillotine vs Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 266 in 2021. 

Don't be dissuaded if Ortega gets cranked in Round 1. He has a chance until the final horn. Bet him as a SU underdog, but you can also throw a dart that he subs Lopes.

Lopes vs Ortega Picks

I'll be on Lopes to win this fight at -138 odds. Beyond that, it gets tricky. The OVER 1.5 rounds is bound to be very chalky, so perhaps it can be parlayed with Lopes ML. 

Sometimes there are lots of plays in a fight; other times, there is nothing to bet. I'm sticking to Lopes ML and moving on.

Pick: Lopes (-138)

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