Pereira vs Ankalaev 2 Odds, Betting, Picks - UFC 320

Magomed Ankalaev is a -265 favorite against Alex Pereira (+200) in the UFC 320 main event on October 4 in Las Vegas.

Fight fans have been starved for this rematch after Ankalaev was crowned the light heavyweight champion after a sound win over Pereira in March of this year. Luckily, the promotion booked the sequel, and we are back at it six months later. Many pundits (myself included) are quite confident in Ankalaev's chances this time around. That said, Pereira's "Chama" power always gives him a chance, especially as a moderate underdog.

Pereira vs Ankalaev 2 Odds

Pereira vs Ankalaev Odds
Fighter	Odds
Alex Pereira	+200
Magomed Ankalaev	-265

Using our odds calculator, Ankalaev's -265 odds imply about a 72.6% chance of winning, and a $100 bet returns $137.74. The underdog Pereira at +200 has about a 33.3% implied win probability, with a $100 bet returning $300.

Why Is Ankalaev Favored in the Rematch Odds?

Ankalaev has long been the promised prince at 205 pounds, and his performance at UFC 313 on March 8 demonstrated why his style is so challenging. Despite Poatan stuffing 12 takedown attempts, Ankalaev still smothered the Brazilian against the cage, limiting his opportunities to do damage. Additionally, Ankalaev earned Pereira's respect in the striking department, stunning the former champ with a good combo in Round 2 and forcing Poatan to become very hesitant for the remainder of the fight.

How to Bet Ankalaev

Handicappers and fight fans misunderstood Ankalaev heading into that fight at UFC 313. The Russian's lack of takedowns on his stats page (0.80 per 15 minutes) raised questions about why he hasn't used his grappling talents in UFC action. What we (and I) failed to recognize is that Ankalaev's "grappling" all comes in the clinch against the fence. That's his version of grappling pressure, and it'll be challenging for an aging Poatan to combat in a rematch.

Dagestani wrestlers make the fence their best friend, and that's what Ankalaev did in his first fight vs Pereira. Poatan controlled the cage in Round 1 (outlanding the challenger 16-9 on significant strikes) before Ankalaev earned the Brazilian's respect, and the tables turned. In the end, Ankalaev significantly outlanded Pereira 94-76 on sig. strikes.

Ankalaev's gritty pressure made all the distance, which is why I'm predicting him to defend his belt in the rematch, this time via KO.

Ankalaev will get another chance to demonstrate his invulnerable skillset, even if Poatan makes radical changes. A more wild version of Poatan likely gets chinned by Ankalaev despite that being Pereira's best route to victory. Ankalaev will be a tough champ to beat, so I'll take him to win by knockout.

How To Bet Pereira

Pereira did a fantastic job stuffing all traditional takedown attempts from Ankalaev, but, whether due to fatigue or a lack of preparedness, he had no answer for the clinch work. While the 38-year-old looked solid in open space, damaging Ankalaev with leg kicks in Round 1 and opening up the spinning arsenal when he could, those moments were rare.

In a rematch, Poatan needs to uncork all his pop in Round 1 and stay away from that darned cage. We saw Ankalaev push Aleksandar Rakic to the fence at UFC 308, but the Austrian managed to wiggle free and fire back. Pereira found essentially zero success getting away from Ankalaev after the Russian had his mitts on him against the cage.

Naturally, Ankalaev will adjust — perhaps with more traditional takedowns — in this rematch, so it'll be difficult for Poatan to reclaim his belt. He must punish Ankalaev early with all his striking might. There's no space for a gradual approach. In the rematch, bet Poatan by knockout, perhaps even combined with the UNDER 2.5 rounds.

Pereira vs Ankalaev 2 Betting Pick

As I alluded to earlier, I'm taking Ankalaev by knockout in the rematch. I believe Poatan will adjust to inflict more pressure but end up going down in a firefight. I'm fine with anyone betting Ankalaev ML at the current odds, but the best value comes on Ankalaev by KO and the fight to go UNDER 4.5 Rounds.