Ilia Topuria is a heavy favorite over Josh Emmett at UFC on ABC 5.

Emmett vs Topuria Odds & Pick: Is This A Guaranteed War?

The Octagon returns to The Sunshine State Saturday for UFC on ABC 5, which features a featherweight main event between Ilia Topuria and Josh Emmett.

Brendan Allen and Bruno Silva kick off the main card, while Maycee Barber and Amanda Ribas tussle in the co-main slot.

This five-round banger headlines the main card at Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. Prelims begin at 12 noon ET, while the main card begins at 3 p.m.

The public sure loves "El Matador" Topuria, who sits as a -400 favorite.

UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs Topuria Betting Odds

Emmett vs Topuria Odds
Josh Emmett+300
Ilia Topuria-400

Odds as of June 20

Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Topuria at -400 (80% implied chance) pays out $125. The same $100 on Emmett at +300 (25% implied chance) pays out $400.

How To Watch UFC on ABC 5: emmett vs topuria

There's always blood at these UFC on ABC cards. Here's how to watch the upcoming featherweight event.

  • Date/Time: June 24, 12 p.m. ET
  • Location: Jacksonville, Florida
  • Arena: Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
  • Where to Watch: ABC, ESPN, Cable Provider

UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs Topuria Full Card & Betting Odds

Here's Saturday's lineup in Jacksonville.

UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs Topuria Fight Card Odds
  • Main Card
  • Featherweight Main Event – Ilia Topuria (-400) vs Josh Emmett (+300)
  • Women's Flyweight – Amanda Ribas (-188) vs Maycee Barber (+162)
  • Heavyweight – Justin Tafa (-175) vs Austen Lane (+150)
  • Featherweight – David Onama (+187) vs Gabriel Santos (-225)
  • Middleweight – Brendan Allen (-175) vs Bruno Silva (+150)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Neil Magny (-160) vs Philip Rowe (+130)
  • Welterweight – Randy Brown (-250) vs Wellington Turman (+200)
  • Lightweight – Mateusz Rebecki (-150) vs Loik Radzhabov (+125)
  • Women's Strawweight – Tabatha Ricci (-138) vs Gillian Robertson (+110)
  • Flyweight – Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-175) vs Joshua Van (+150)
  • Lightweight – Trevor Peek (-125) vs Chepe Mariscal (+100)
  • Featherweight – Jamall Emmers (-200) vs Jack Jenkins (+170)
  • Flyweight – Tatsuro Taira (-275) vs Kleydson Rodrigues (+225)
  • Middleweight – Cody Brundage (-175) vs Sedriques Dumas (+150)

Odds as of June 20

Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria Tale Of The Tape

FighterJosh EmmettIlia Topuria
Record18-3 (9-3 UFC)13-0 (5-0 UFC)
Avg. Fight Time12:517:20
Sig. Strikes Per Minute4.173.32
Sig. Strikes Absorbed Per Minute4.432.75
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes1.072.45
Takedown Accuracy37%44%
Takedown Defense58%92%

Emmett vs Topuria Preview: Who Will Win?

The -400 odds on Topuria suggest the Spaniard will dominate. But is that really going to happen?

How Topuria Wins

I'll bet a lot of fight fans envision Topuria and Emmett chucking knuckles for a few minutes followed by someone (likely Emmett) hitting the floor. While that's certainly possible — both guys are very powerful — I'm not sure it's in El Matador's best interests.

Yair Rodriguez defeated Emmett at UFC 284 with a flurry of long kicks and shots to the gut. Once "CC0" was winded, the Mexican, even off his back, sunk in a triangle choke to win out. Emmett didn't struggle much before tapping.

Topuria is a vastly different fighter than Rodriguez, but I think a submission is still very much in play for the favorite. The 26-year-old will primarily try to slug Emmett to the canvas and get a choke from there. That said, there's a route where Topuria wins by a traditional takedown and a transition into a top-position finish. 

How Emmett Wins

If Emmett is smart, he'll have nothing to do with Topuria's ground game. The American wins this fight by using Topuria's train-like momentum against him. Topuria has a tendency to overswing; he gets excited, sees red and wants to kill his opponent. That's unwise against a veteran like Emmett. 

Watch for the 38-year-old to protect himself in the guard and make Topuria dig himself into trouble. El Matador can be knocked down — see his fight vs Jai Herbert — so there's no doubt Emmett can sock him on a counter and shut him down for good.

Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria Pick

While I don't think +300 odds are a fair representation of Emmett's chances, I'm not about to back him either. Topuria is younger, faster, hungrier and has way more to gain from a victory. 

This is a great, action-packed fight, and ultimately I think Topuria secures a victory inside the distance. This bout will drown us in chalk, but I'll go Topuria by KO/TKO/SUB (-250) and the fight to extend OVER 1.5 rounds (-125).

Pick: Topuria inside the distance (-250); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-125); dart throw on Topuria by submission (+150)