The Octagon returns to The Sunshine State Saturday for UFC on ABC 5, which features a featherweight main event between Ilia Topuria and Josh Emmett.
This five-round banger headlines the main card at Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. Prelims begin at 12 noon ET, while the main card begins at 3 p.m.
The public sure loves "El Matador" Topuria, who sits as a -400 favorite.
UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs Topuria Betting Odds
Odds as of June 20
Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Topuria at -400 (80% implied chance) pays out $125. The same $100 on Emmett at +300 (25% implied chance) pays out $400.
How To Watch UFC on ABC 5: emmett vs topuria
There's always blood at these UFC on ABC cards. Here's how to watch the upcoming featherweight event.
UFC on ABC 5: Emmett vs Topuria Full Card & Betting Odds
Here's Saturday's lineup in Jacksonville.
Odds as of June 20
Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria Tale Of The Tape
|Fighter||Josh Emmett||Ilia Topuria|
|Record||18-3 (9-3 UFC)||13-0 (5-0 UFC)|
|Avg. Fight Time||12:51||7:20|
|Sig. Strikes Per Minute||4.17||3.32|
|Sig. Strikes Absorbed Per Minute||4.43||2.75|
|Takedowns Per 15 Minutes||1.07||2.45|
Emmett vs Topuria Preview: Who Will Win?
The -400 odds on Topuria suggest the Spaniard will dominate. But is that really going to happen?
How Topuria Wins
I'll bet a lot of fight fans envision Topuria and Emmett chucking knuckles for a few minutes followed by someone (likely Emmett) hitting the floor. While that's certainly possible — both guys are very powerful — I'm not sure it's in El Matador's best interests.
Yair Rodriguez defeated Emmett at UFC 284 with a flurry of long kicks and shots to the gut. Once "CC0" was winded, the Mexican, even off his back, sunk in a triangle choke to win out. Emmett didn't struggle much before tapping.
Topuria is a vastly different fighter than Rodriguez, but I think a submission is still very much in play for the favorite. The 26-year-old will primarily try to slug Emmett to the canvas and get a choke from there. That said, there's a route where Topuria wins by a traditional takedown and a transition into a top-position finish.
How Emmett Wins
If Emmett is smart, he'll have nothing to do with Topuria's ground game. The American wins this fight by using Topuria's train-like momentum against him. Topuria has a tendency to overswing; he gets excited, sees red and wants to kill his opponent. That's unwise against a veteran like Emmett.
Watch for the 38-year-old to protect himself in the guard and make Topuria dig himself into trouble. El Matador can be knocked down — see his fight vs Jai Herbert — so there's no doubt Emmett can sock him on a counter and shut him down for good.
Josh Emmett vs Ilia Topuria Pick
While I don't think +300 odds are a fair representation of Emmett's chances, I'm not about to back him either. Topuria is younger, faster, hungrier and has way more to gain from a victory.
This is a great, action-packed fight, and ultimately I think Topuria secures a victory inside the distance. This bout will drown us in chalk, but I'll go Topuria by KO/TKO/SUB (-250) and the fight to extend OVER 1.5 rounds (-125).