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Ngannou vs Jones Odds & Prediction: Jones in Rare Spot as Underdog

Francis Ngannou (right) is the favorite in the Ngannou vs Jones odds.

At UFC 260 in late March, Francis Ngannou knocked out Stipe Miocic to become the new heavyweight champion. It certainly appears that his first title defense will come against pound-for-pound champion and former light heavyweight great Jon Jones.

This fight is far from a done deal, though, with Jones publicly negotiating with the UFC for a larger payday.

Regardless, online sportsbook BetOnline has the Ngannou vs Jones odds with the current champion, Ngannou, as the -185 favorite and the former light heavyweight champ, Jones, coming back as a +150 underdog. This means you would have to bet $185 to profit $100 on a Ngannou victory while a $100 bet on Jones would profit you $150.

Ngannou vs Jones Odds

Francis Ngannou vs Jon Jones Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Francis Ngannou-185
Jon Jones+150

Odds as of April 1 at BetOnline

Looking at the Ngannou vs Jones odds, our sports betting calculator tells us that Ngannou’s -185 betting line represents an implied win probability of 64.91 percent while Jones’ +150 odds have an implied win probability of 40.00 percent.

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Jones vs Ngannou Odds Analysis

Jon Jones as an underdog? You have to go back more than a decade to January 31, 2009, to find the last time that Bones had a plus sign next to his odds. Over 22 career fights in the UFC, Jones has been an underdog twice, in his debut against Andre Gusmao and in the fight I mentioned above, his second vs Stephan Bonnar – if we only knew then what we know now.

Can Ngannou Ever be an Underdog?

“The Predator” showed in his victory over Miocic to win the UFC heavyweight title at UFC 260 that he is constantly improving. We all know about the devastating knockout power that he possesses, with 12 of his 16 pro wins coming in that fashion. However, in his most recent appearance, he was patient and beautifully stuffed a takedown in the first round – a big issue for wrestlers who in the past would’ve sought to take advantage of his poor grappling skills.

Ngannou vs Jones Preview

It is absolutely no secret what Ngannou’s game plan would be heading into this fight: move forward and look to knock Jones out. Francis’ wrestling skills were put to the test in the first bout with Miocic and he looked really bad. Fast-forward three years and he stuffed Miocic easily, took his back and landed some heavy ground and pound.

As good as Ngannou looked in the six minutes that he needed to knock out Stipe, there was still an issue that could be his demise against Jones and that is conditioning. The Predator did stuff a takedown and land some ground and pound but when getting back to his feet, he barely threw a strike the rest of the round and was breathing heavily.

How will Jones look at Heavyweight?

From all accounts, Jones has been handling notable heavyweights in the training room for years as he was the light heavyweight champ. Now, adding on some muscle should help in power and in his grappling, but could it slow him down?

Like him or not, “Bones” has an incredible fight IQ and in combination with the longest reach in the UFC is a difficult opponent for anyone. What makes him a major threat to win this fight is his conditioning. Jones has no problem pushing the pace for 25 hard minutes and I think that’s the X factor. If he can survive the first round, he likely wins this fight.

Ngannou vs Jones Pick

When Ngannou fought Miocic in the rematch at UFC 260, he had odds of +200 to win in the first round. I think it’s a must-play every time he has odds like that for that prop. In the same vein, you have to bet Jon Jones as an underdog every single time. Not just a value pick, though – I think Jones beats Ngannou with his creativity, patience and diverse skill set. Give me the dog!

Prediction: Jon Jones (+150) via decision