UFC Fight Night Nebraska: James Vick vs Justin Gaethje Betting Odds

The UFC invades Sportsbook Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska for UFC Fight Night: James Vick vs Justin Gaethje on August 25. This bout features the No. 7 and No. 11 fighters in the UFC lightweight division. Vick (No. 11) opened as the -155 favorite with Gaethje (No. 7) coming back at +125. The rest of the card is filled with plenty of great prospects and I’ve got the breakdown and pick for each fight for the UFC Fight Night: Nebraska main card.

Gaethje enters this fight on a two-fight losing streak, while Vick is riding a four-fight winning streak. The odds seem about right but this fight will be a standup battle where anything can happen. I imagine as we come closer to the fight, the lines will move in Gaethje’s favor based on his back-to-back wars with Poirier and Alvarez but don’t let that fool you. Vick is a true rising star.

View James Vick vs Justin Gaethje matchup page.

Breaking down Vick vs Gaethje

Vick (-155) has been climbing the ranks of the UFC’s lightweight division for the past five years, picking up nine wins along the way. The 31-year-old’s only stumble came against the always-dangerous Beneil Dariush at UFC 199, where he was finished by a first-round knockout. Since then, “The Texecutioner” has rattled off four straight wins, two by T/KO and one by submission. He has outstruck his opponents by a double-digit margin in seven of his 10 UFC bouts and averages 4.11 strikes per minute. The Texas native has been susceptible to the takedown as he defends just 56 percent of attempts and has been taken down five times in his last two bouts.

Gaethje (+125) is the man you want to see if you’re looking for a phone-booth fight. “The Highlight” never takes a step backward and just stands and trades, almost to a fault. His reckless style has resulted in him being knocked out in his last two fights but earned him a knockout in his first UFC fight against Michael Johnson. By his own admission, following his fight with Dustin Poirier, the 29-year-old believes his brawling ways have left him with just five fights left in his career due to the toll it has taken on his body. And the numbers speak for themselves, as Gaethje averages 8.67 strikes per minute while absorbing an astounding 10.68 significant strikes per minute.

James Vick vs Justin Gaethje has Fight of the Night written all over it. These two fighters love to brawl and they will put that on display at Sportsbook Bank Arena. It’s often hard to predict fights like this when two guys are willing to just stand and trade as you never know who will land that pivotal blow that ends the bout. All I can say is grab your popcorn and buckle in for what’s sure to be an epic war.

Prediction: James Vick (-160) via decision

Michael Johnson vs Andre Fili

Johnson (-120) is almost in a do-or-die situation. The former Ultimate Fighter finalist has dropped his last three fights and five of his last six. Granted he had a bit of a murderers’ row in the lightweight division over that six-fight span, taking on the likes of Nate Diaz, Justin Gaethje and Khabib Nurmagomedov. Johnson’s lone victory came against Dustin Poirier at UFC Fight Night 94, when he stopped Poirier with a first-round knockout. “The Menace” has great wrestling defense, stuffing 79 percent of the attempts against, as he elects to keep the fight standing in search of the T/KO. The St. Louis native averages 4.13 strikes per minute but also absorbs 4.03 significant strikes per minute.

Fili (-110) is trending in the opposite direction of Johnson, rattling off two straight victories after having a win-one, lose-one streak in his eight fights prior. “Touchy” looks his best when he’s in a grappling match and has found success with that game plan in his last two fights when he landed a combined nine takedowns en route to two decision victories. Overall, the 28-year-old averages 2.91 takedowns per 15 minutes, at 45 percent accuracy. While on the mat, Fili looks to unload some ground and pound as he has only finished three fights by submission but has eight T/KO wins.

Johnson will be the much bigger man in this fight and that really could be a massive advantage in the way these two do battle. Fili will want this fight to be on the floor but dragging down the bigger Johnson may be difficult to do. It is in the best interest of “Touchy” to try to tire “The Menace” out so he can avoid his power and look to punish him on the ground. This is Johnson’s second fight at featherweight and he was stopped by Darren Elkins by submission in his debut at UFC Fight Night: St. Louis in January.

Prediction: Michael Johnson (-150) via knockout.

Cortney Casey vs Angela Hill

Hill (-145) has an aggressive style in which she throws hands looking for the finish. However, “Overkill” lacks true knockout power, having earned just three T/KO victories in her career, while her other five wins have come by decision. More recently, the Maryland native has elected to leave the fights in the judges’ hands as her last six bouts have gone to a decision in which she has had her hand raised four times. Hill’s in-your-face style has allowed her to land 5.42 strikes per minute at 50 percent accuracy and she has defended 72 percent of takedown attempts.

Casey (+115) is a well-rounded fighter who has finished three of her fights by T/KO, three of her fights by submission and one by decision. “Cast Iron” has dropped two straight and three of her last four fights overall, with each loss coming by decision, including two splits with game competitors in Michelle Waterson and Felice Herrig. Prior to this recent rough stretch, Casey had back-to-back first-round finishes over Cristina Stanclu and Randa Markos. The 31-year-old is methodical in her approach, always dissecting her opponents and figuring out the best approach to secure the victory.

Hill is going to try to keep this fight standing and I would be absolutely shocked if she looked for a takedown as Casey’s BJJ game is dangerous. Meanwhile, “Cast Iron” is going to have to capitalize on the mistakes of “Overkill,” whether it be a mistimed kick or an over-the-top punch. If Casey can get on the inside and drag this fight to the mat, the momentum quickly swings in her favor. Overall, I think Casey has a lot more tools in her belt to secure the victory, but we have seen her get the wrong result when the fight is left in the judges’ hands. She may need the finish.

Prediction: Cortney Casey (+110) via submission

Jake Ellenberger vs Bryan Barberena

Barberena (-500) enters the cage with one thing on his mind, seek the knockout. “Bam Bam” has 13 professional wins, nine of which have come by T/KO and four coming in the first round. The California native keeps pushing forward, walking through anything his opponent will throw at him with the hopes of getting close enough to land his heavy hands. Barberena averages 4.89 strikes per minute at a 49 percent rate. The one Achilles heel for the 29-year-old brawler, much like any heavy striker, is his wrestling. He only defends 47 percent of takedown attempts and on the mat, he is susceptible to the ground and pound as was on full display as he dragged to the mat 12 times vs Colby Covington in 2016.

Ellenberger (+350) is a longtime veteran of the UFC, bursting onto the scene in 2009 with a split-decision loss to Carlos Condit and then rattling off six straight wins. However, of late “The Juggernaut” has lost three straight and eight of his last 10, including being T/KO’d five times over that span. The Nebraska native used to be known for his great chin but it appears to have failed him in recent trips to the Octagon. The 33-year-old has the ability to take the fight to the ground if he is too threatened standing up as he lands an average of 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes.

If Ellenberger wants to avoid a fourth loss in a row, he needs to get this fight to the mat. If he wants to stand and trade with Barberena, he is in a world of trouble. As mentioned, though, “Bam Bam” is vulnerable to the takedown and then does appear a little lost on how to get back standing when the fight does get to the mat. However, the fight starts on the feet at the beginning of every round and Barberena will look to end the fight by using his heavy hands aiming for the knockout.

Prediction: Bryan Barberena (-500) via knockout

John Moraga vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Figueiredo (-155) lays his perfect 14-0 record on the line in this scrap. “Deus da Guerra” is a high-level wrestler with an aggressive ground and pound. The Brazilian made his Octagon debut just over a year ago at UFC 212, scoring a T/KO victory via doctor’s stoppage over Marco Beltran. Figueiredo rattled off two more wins to move to 3-0 in the UFC, and he has only been favored once in his previous three bouts when he closed as a -145 fave over Marco Beltran. The 33-year-old has earned half of his wins by T/KO and five others by submission. His wrestling defense is an area of improvement as he was taken down seven times in his fight with Jarred Brooks, but he works well off his back as he attempted five submissions on the floor.

Moraga (+125) makes his 14th trip to the Octagon and enters the cage riding a three-fight winning streak. “Chicano” has been the dog in three of his last four scraps, including closing as a +355 dog in his knockout victory over Magomed Bibulatov at UFC 216. Moraga is always searching for the submission as eight of his 19 wins have come this way, but five of his last six scraps have gone to decision. Although the Arizona native’s strong area is submissions, he only lands 25 percent of his takedown attempts, averaging just 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes. Moraga was dragged to the mat eight times in his last fight with Wilson Reis, but he outstruck Reis 69-61 and scored the unanimous decision.

Both fighters will be sizing each other up looking for their opportunity to shoot in for the takedown. Figueiredo has been more accurate in his attempts at bringing the fight to the ground but will have to time it correctly or he could be punished by Moraga. This is a massive step up for the 14th-ranked flyweight in Figueiredo to take on the sixth-ranked Moraga, but he has earned it and this will surely be a great display of wrestling and jiu-jitsu.

Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo (-150) via decision

Eryk Anders vs Tim Williams

Anders (-1000) is the biggest favorite on the card and rightfully so. The Texas native saw his perfect 10-0 record end in his last fight when he lost a split decision to Lyoto Machida. The 31-year-old had six of his wins coming by knockout, including three straight first-round TKOs from 2016-17. “Ya Boi” also has been known to use his wrestling to seek a ground-and-pound approach as he has landed 2.1 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career, including three in his last scrap with Machida. Anders lands 54 percent of his significant strikes, averaging 3.12 per minute while only absorbing 2.47 significant strikes per minute. This was on full display when he outstruck Markus Perez 104-41 at UFC Fight Night 123.

Williams (+600) appeared in The Ultimate Fighter Season 19 in 2014 when he lost his Sportsbook-round matchup due to a rear-naked choke. Since the show, “The South Jersey Strangler” rattled off seven wins over his next nine fights with his only two losses coming back to back against light heavyweight contender Anthony Smith. Williams got a second shot at the UFC in February but the fight didn’t go as planned as he was knocked out in the first round by Oskar Piechota. The New Jersey native does everything he can to get the fight to the ground where he can go for the submission. Of his 15 wins, nine have come by submission with five of those coming by rear-naked choke. However, of his four losses, three have come by T/KO.

The odds don’t lie in this fight. Anders simply outclasses Williams in the standup part of the fight and with a 66 percent takedown defense, “Ya Boi” isn’t easy to drag to the mat. Additionally, “The South Jersey Strangler” has only made one trip to the Octagon and was knocked out early in that fight, while Anders has been in three UFC fights, including going five rounds with former light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida.

Prediction: Eryk Anders (-1000) via knockout.

Here’s a look at the odds for the rest of the card: