Andre Muniz (left) is favored vs Brendan Allen at UFC Vegas 70

Muniz vs Allen Odds & Pick: Expect A Grappling War

The UFC returns February 25 with a light heavyweight main event between Ryan Spann and Nikita Krylov. The fights take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas with prelim bouts beginning at 4 p.m. ET and the main card starting at 8 p.m.

The UFC Vegas 70 card features multiple exciting clashes, including a middleweight co-main event between Andre Muniz (23-4, 5-0 UFC) and Brendan Allen (20-5, 8-2 UFC). 

Andre Muniz vs Brendan Allen Betting Odds

Muniz vs Allen Odds
Andre Muniz-220
Brendan Allen+180

Odds as of February 24

Muniz is the -220 favorite and Allen enters as the +190 underdog. Our odds calculator tells us Muniz’s -220 status translates to an implied win probability of 68.75 percent. That means a $10 bet on him pays out $14.55 (a return of your original $10 plus $4.55 profit). Allen’s +180 odds imply a 35.71 percent win probability and a $10 bet on the underdog would pay out $28.

For more information on how these numbers work, including the Muniz vs Allen odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, feel free to visit our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon.

Muniz vs Allen Preview: Who Will Win?

Let’s examine the Muniz vs Allen odds a little closer.

What Muniz Does Well

Muniz is a true grappling specialist. The Brazilian owns three UFC submission victories, all by armbar, and he’ll employ plenty of jiu-jitsu when he attacks Allen on Saturday. Once Muniz defends Allen’s eventual swarm of strikes, he’s likely to shoot a takedown. It’s equally possible Allen shoots first, though, to take the fight to the mat. 

From top mount, Muniz is in great shape. He’s often able to pivot to back mount as his opponent stands up – and that’s where he attacks the arm for the submission. Muniz is a big dude, and all that pressure wears guys down as they defend, eventually forcing a tap (he famously – and audibly – snapped Jacare Souza’s arm this way at UFC 262). But when Muniz is on his back, that’s when things get saucy. The armbar works from many positions, including bottom position, which is to say even a knockdown by Allen doesn’t take Muniz out of it. 

What Allen Does Well

Allen, who is 4-0 as a UFC underdog, possesses more natural power than Muniz. On the feet, I like Allen’s chances, but this bout is destined to hit the canvas. If Allen ends up on the bottom, he’s capable of wriggling out – his elevation and reversal vs Krzysztof Jotko at UFC Vegas 61 led to a submission win and proved the 27-year-old is a very clever grappler. 

Muniz is very slick, though. “Sergipano” has a three-inch reach advantage over Allen, and the Brazilian can create a ton of leverage with his submission attempts. Muniz will definitely attempt an armbar – either from top or bottom position – and Allen will be forced to defend. If he stops Muniz’s advances once or twice, then there’s a good chance he finds a way to win. 

Muniz vs Allen Pick

After Dan Hooker easily defeated Claudio Puelles at UFC 281, I swore I’d never back a one-trick specialist again. However, as much as I’ve searched, I don’t see a way Allen pulls this off. 

“All In” lives up to his nickname (seven of his 10 UFC fights have ended inside the distance), but I think his aggressive strategy will result in him tumbling into a choke or, most likely, a vicious armbar. And even if he pops out, Muniz possesses the cardio and the IQ to put him back in the wash cycle and do it all again. 

My official prediction is Muniz to win at -220. To kick up the value, you can even bet Muniz to win inside the distance (-125). As far as total rounds go, I like a 1.5-unit bet on the fight to finish UNDER 2.5 rounds at -225.

Pick: Muniz to win (-225); UNDER 2.5 rounds (-225); bet on Muniz to win inside the distance (-125)

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