UFC on ESPN 6: Reyes vs Weidman Odds and Picks

The TD Garden will host the UFC this Friday night, October 18. Headlining UFC on ESPN 6 in Boston is a tilt in the light heavyweight division between Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes and Chris “The All-American” Weidman, who is making his light heavyweight debut. The Devastator is a -175 favorite in this bout, while the All-American is coming back at +145.

Dominick Reyes vs Chris Weidman

Weidman (+145) is making the jump to the light heavyweight division after dropping four of his last five fights by knockout at middleweight, while his lone win was a submission triumph over Kelvin Gastelum. Meanwhile, Reyes (-175) is looking to keep his perfect 11-0 record intact. Most recently, the Devastator scored a split-decision victory over Volkan Oezdemir in March.

The 29-year-old Reyes is very strong and has good power in his hands, with six of his 11 pro victories ending in knockouts. He mixes his strikes well with kicks at range or long straight punches to keep his opponents at the end of his reach. Reyes’ conditioning is also pretty good and he keeps a high pace late into fights. As for the All-American, his striking has really improved over the years, but his bread and butter is still his wrestling as he averages 3.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. On the floor, he does a good job passing guard and working toward a submission.

The path to victory for Weidman is getting the fight to the floor, but Reyes stuffs 85 percent of takedown attempts and was only taken down once in a three-round bout vs Ovince Saint Preux last October. Meanwhile, the All-American has been knocked out in all four of his losses and that’s the best method of victory for Reyes.

Prediction: Dominick Reyes (-175) via knockout

Yair Rodriguez vs Jeremy Stephens

This fight was supposed to take place in the main event for UFC Fight Night 159 in Mexico City four weeks ago, but a first-round accidental eye poke on Jeremy Stephens led to the fight ending in a no contest. Rodriguez (--130) is 7-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming by doctor stoppage against Frankie Edgar at UFC 211 in 2017. Stephens (EVEN) is looking for his first win since February 2018, coming off back-to-back losses to Jose Aldo and Zabit Magomedsharipov.

“Lil’ Heathen” likes to stalk his opponents and look to let his heavy hands fly. The orthodox fighter really loads up on his right hand and doesn’t necessarily set it up well, but when it lands, he puts his opponents in a bad way. As for “El Pantera,” he has tremendous kicks and he’s long, wild and creative. This creativity was on full display with his fifth-round knockout of the Korean Zombie last November when he landed an upward elbow from a very odd angle.

Overall, this is a true matchup between a heavy brawler and a creative kickboxer. If Stephens wants to secure a victory, he will have to corner Rodriguez and find a place for his right hand. On the other hand, El Pantera may find success with his quick head kicks or spinning attacks at long distance.

Prediction: Jeremy Stephens (EVEN) via knockout

Greg Hardy vs Ben Sosoli

Hardy (-335) is looking for his third win in a row in the Octagon and a third straight first-round knockout as well. “The Prince of War” lost his UFC debut to Allen Crowder because of an illegal knee disqualification, but he has rattled off two consecutive knockouts since then. On the other side, this will be the UFC debut for Australian-born Ben Sosoli (+255). “Seki” appeared in season 3 of Dana White’s  Tuesday Night Contender Series in August but the fight ended in a no contest from an accidental eye poke.

The former NFL star, Hardy, is an extremely aggressive fighter who storms right at his opponents looking to land his heavy hands. He throws long punches that have tremendous power but he doesn’t keep his hands high, which leaves him vulnerable to counters. This is an issue as he typically overextends his punches. Sosoli tends to back his opponents down and looks to let his hands fly. Of his seven professional wins, six have come by knockout, and he does really well in close exchanges, moving his head off the centerline while throwing heavy punches.

Hardy will have a sizable height and reach advantage in this fight and if he can use it to keep Sosoli at bay, he should have some success. Seki’s head movement will be really interesting as Hardy’s punches tend to be overextended and long, so if he can avoid the strike and fire back, he could put the Prince of War in trouble.

Prediction: Greg Hardy (-335) via knockout

Joe Lauzon vs Jonathan Pearce

Octagon veteran Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon (+150) is aiming to put a stop to his three-fight losing slide and pick up his first win since January 2017. He welcomes Jonathan Pearce (-185) to the Octagon making his debut. Pearce earned a UFC contract with his knockout victory over Jacob Rosales in July in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series.

Lauzon is a forward-pressure fighter who has some power in his hands but his best attack is in the submission game as 17 of his 27 pro wins have ended in that manner. He does like to test himself in the striking game with his opponents but his defense is very poor and he’s been knocked out three times, including in his last two fights. Pearce is a bit of a wild striker, throwing everything with bad intentions, with lots of kicks and flying knees. The 27-year-old does tend to telegraph his strikes a little bit by loading up before he throws them and he often opens his arms up in striking exchanges, allowing for straight punches from his opponents to come through.

Despite Lauzon’s recent track record, he is still very experienced and somewhat well-rounded. If J-Lau is able to get the fight to the floor, Pearce could be in trouble as two of his three pro losses have been submissions. Additionally, Lauzon’s punches tend to be straight and he may find a way to sneak through Pearce’s defense.

Prediction: Joe Lauzon (+150) via submission

Maycee Barber vs Gillian Robertson

Maycee “The Future” Barber (-150) lays her perfect 7-0 record on the line as she eyes her third straight win in the Octagon. Of her seven professional wins, six have been finishes, including four straight TKO wins. Looking to add a loss to Barber’s record is Gillian “The Savage” Robertson (+120), who is seeking her third consecutive win.

The Future has really strong striking and showed off her resiliency in her last bout, getting dropped a couple of times by J.J. Aldrich before earning a TKO victory in the second round. Barber showed gaps in her striking, often dropping her hands when throwing a strike, which got her in trouble. As for the Savage, she is a much more patient fighter who looks for her opportunity to bring the fight to the floor rather than getting in a striking exchange. When she earns a takedown, she weighs heavy on her opponents and has a good ground and pound.

This is the first time that Barber has faced somebody who will be actively looking to take the fight to the floor. The Future will have an advantage on the feet and has a 100 percent takedown defense so far in the UFC. However, the Savage has earned at least one takedown in each of her five fights in the Octagon and has finished her opponent in four of those bouts.

Prediction: Gillian Robertson (+120) via decision

Deron Winn vs Darren Stewart

Winn (-140) makes his second walk to the Octagon looking to remain undefeated and move to 7-0. He made his debut in June against Eric Spicely and secured a unanimous-decision victory. Opposing Winn is Stewart (+110), who is entering the Octagon for the ninth time and is looking for his second two-fight win streak. “The Dentist” struggled in the early stages of his UFC career, going 0-3 with one no contest in his first four fights, but has gone 3-1 in his last four.

Winn is small for the middleweight division at five-foot-six but he has tremendous power and has a really good duck-then-overhand right that he throws frequently. He is also very aggressive and can keep a high pace, throwing 169 strikes in his victory over Spicely. Meanwhile, Stewart has good kicks and good footwork, constantly bouncing around on the outside before lunging in with a spinning attack or a solid leg kick.

Although Stewart constantly showboats and bounces around on the outside, he doesn’t have much output, averaging just 32 strikes over his last two fights that went the distance, with an average of 2.76 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career. Meanwhile, Winn averaged 11.27 significant strikes per minute in his debut against Eric Spicely so it’ll be interesting to see how Stewart handles that type of fight where he has to throw his hands. Additionally, Winn has good wrestling, even though it hasn’t been shown yet, and Stewart was taken down eight times against Edmen Shahbazyan last November.

Prediction: Deron Winn (-140) via decision

Here’s a look at all matchups and odds for UFC on ESPN 6: Reyes vs Weidman:

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook

Odds as of October 18 at Sportsbook