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UFC Underdogs vs Favorites records

When betting on the UFC it’s all about finding that perfect pick to make some cash. However, those seemingly obvious bets can sometimes blow up in your face as we saw with the Rose Namajunas (+500) upset over Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 217. Now with that example, I’m not saying to bet the farm on all huge dogs but rather pointing out that not all that glitters is gold.

Underdogs on the Rise?

Over the last three years inside the Octagon, the percentage of underdog winners has trended downward. In 2015 the underdog win percentage was 38.5, while in 2017 it was down to 32 percent. However, 2018 represented a bit of a comeback for the underdogs as they finished at 34 percent. The biggest upset of the year was Paul Craig (+535) over Magomed Ankalaev. The final PPV of the year was UFC 232 and Amanda Nunes’ (+180) first-round knockout of Cris Cyborg was the biggest upset of the card.

OddsShark will update the records for underdogs vs favorites broken down per card following each event. Additionally, we will break down the profits based on $100 on every underdog vs $100 on each favorite.

Here’s a look at the records for 2018:

Event Underdog Wins Favorite Wins Biggest Upset
YEAR TO DATE 155 301 Paul Craig (+535) over Magomed Ankalaev
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi 5 6 Mads Burnell (+175) over Mike Santiago
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou 4 7 Calvin Kattar (+185) over Shane Burgos
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 2 10 Ji Yeon Kim (+145) over Justine Kish
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders 5 6 Lyoto Machida (+200) over Eryk Anders
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold 3 8 Yoel Romero (+157) over Luke Rockhold
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros** 4 7 Diego Ferreira (+155) over Jared Gordon
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens 6 6 Max Griffin (+310) over Mike Perry
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya 5 7 Alexander Hernandez (+330) over Beneil Dariush
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov 6 4 Paul Craig (+535) over Magomed Ankalaev
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta 3 5 Chris Gruetzemacher (+125) over Joe Lauzon
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje** 4 9 Adam Wieczorek (+275) over Arjan Bhullar
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee** 2 8 Siyar Bahadurzada (+150) over Luan Chagas
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington 3 10 Aleksei Oleinik (+130) over Junior Albini
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman** 3 9 Claudio Puelles (+250) over Felipe Silva
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till 6 5 Claudio Silva (+265) over Nordine Taleb
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes 1 11 Ben Saunders (+155) over Jake Ellenberger
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 2 11 Sergio Pettis (+175) over Joseph Benavidez
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards 4 9 Matt Schnell (+165) over Naoki Inoue
UFC - TUF 27 Finale** 5 6 Gerald Meerschaert (+180) over Oskar Piechota
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier 7 4 Derrick Lewis (+255) over Francis Ngannou
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov 6 7 Rick Glenn (+150) over Dennis Bermudez
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith 6 7 Nasrat Haqparast (+140) over Marc Diakiese
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 4 9 Dustin Ortiz (+168) over Matheus Nicolau
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 4 8 Henry Cejudo (+350) over Demetrious Johnson
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick** 4 8 James Krause (+275) over Warlley Alves
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till 4 9 Diego Sanchez (+175) over Craig White
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik 2 10 Jan Blachowicz (+125) over Nikita Krylov
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders* 4 10 Rogerio Nogueira (+300) over Sam Alvey
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor 5 7 Scott Holtzman (+250) over Alan Patrick
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith** 4 8 Don Madge (+335) over Te Edwards
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis* 4 5 Jared Cannonier (+300) over David Branch
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez 2 10 Donald Cerrone (+170) over Mike Perry
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio 3 7 Cynthia Calvillo (+160) over Poliana Botelho
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 5 7 Wu Yanan (+300) over Lauren Mueller
UFC - TUF 28 Finale** 2 10 Joseph Benavidez (+115) over Alex Perez
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa** 3 8 Mauricio Rua (+350) over Tyson Pedro
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega** 4 8 Dhiego Lima (+300) over Chad Laprise
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta** 4 7 Al Iaquinta (+275) over Kevin Lee
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 5 8 Amanda Nunes (+180) over Cris Cyborg

*Event featured a draw/no contest. **Event featured a fight with even odds.

Event Profit based on $100 Underdog bets Profit based on $100 favorite bets
YEAR TO DATE -6360.57 -1663.98
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi +$130.24 -$160.66
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou -$130.0 -$40.02
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 -$730.0 +$347.91
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders +$175.0 -$221.05
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold -$376.0 +$118.4
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros** -$184.96 -$83.08
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens +$439.0 -$256.11
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya +$178.0 -$199.55
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov +$909.34 -$408.64
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta -$176.54 -$83.53
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje** -$275.99 +$48.57
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee** -$515.0 +$199.55
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington -$673.9 +$167.42
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman** -$360.0 +$40.74
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till +$440.0 -$416.71
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes -$945.0 +$440.22
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 -$829.76 +$376.82
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards -$335.0 -$12.06
UFC - TUF 27 Finale** +$45.0 -$139.25
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier +$699.0 -$460.37
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov +$54.24 -$129.26
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith -$12.95 -$280.33
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 -$443.31 +$64.67
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 -$115.0 -$70.45
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick** -$204.76 -$61.55
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till -$334.76 +$23.81
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik -$779.76 +$78.9
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders* -$315.0 +$8.04
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor +$20.24 -$230.13
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith** +$5.0 -$85.87
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis* +$295.0 -$281.97
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez -$690.0 +$308.54
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio -$290.0 +$6.69
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 +$125.0 -$261.76
UFC - TUF 28 Finale** -$794.09 +$229.79
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa** -$249.09 -$26.9
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega** +$25.0 -$22.82
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta** +$20.0 -$103.73
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 -$159.76 -$88.25

*Event featured a draw/no contest. **Event featured a fight with even odds.