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UFC: 2019 Underdogs vs Favorites Record

UFC Underdogs vs Favorites records

There’s nothing better than identifying a mismatch where the oddsmakers have made a mistake and you reap the rewards of an underdog win. However, that is a lot easier to say than it is to do and sometimes it burns you the other way when those clear cut-and-dry favorites cost you money when the underdog pulls off that upset.

One of the most shocking upsets of 2018 had arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter Demetrious Johnson losing by unanimous decision to Henry Cejudo (+350) at UFC 227. This doesn’t mean you should be swinging for the fences on every card with a lot of underdog bets, but just know that there can be money to be made on a well-placed bet.

2018 was a bounce-back year for underdogs

Underdog victories were on the decline recently, as in 2015 dogs had a winning percentage of 38.5, but in 2017 that percentage dropped to 32. However, there was a bit of a comeback in 2018 as underdogs finished at a 34 winning percentage and that trend has continued into the early goings of 2019.

Through four events in 2019, underdogs are hitting at a rate of 37.5 percent. Most recently, UFC Fight Night Phoenix: Ngannou vs Velasquez saw dogs win five of the 11 fights for a profit of $0.91 based on a $100 wager on each fight. The biggest upset of the evening was Nik Lentz (+140) over Scott Holtzman. Overall this year, the biggest upset is Allen Crowder (+375) over Greg Hardy.

OddsShark will update the records for underdogs vs favorites broken down per card following each event. Additionally, we will break down the profits based on $100 on every underdog vs $100 on each favorite.

Here’s a look at the record for 2019:

EventUnderdog WinsFavorite WinsBiggest Upset
YEAR TO DATE1830Allen Crowder (+375) over Greg Hardy
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw67Allen Crowder (+375) over Greg Hardy
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 276Rogerio Bontorin (+300) over Magomed Bibulatov
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva011No dog wins.
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez**56Nik Lentz (+140) over Scott Holtzman
EventProfit based on $100 underdog betsProfit based on $100 favorite bets
YEAR TO DATE-$166.09-$368.15
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw+$413.0-$290.99
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2+$520.0-$326.09
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva-$1100.0+$493.27
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez**+$0.91-$244.34