UFC: 2019 Underdogs vs Favorites Record

There’s nothing better than identifying a mismatch where the oddsmakers have made a mistake and you reap the rewards of an underdog win. However, that is a lot easier to say than it is to do and sometimes it burns you the other way when those clear cut-and-dry favorites cost you money when the underdog pulls off that upset.
One of the most shocking upsets of 2018 had arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter Demetrious Johnson losing by unanimous decision to Henry Cejudo (+350) at UFC 227. This doesn’t mean you should be swinging for the fences on every card with a lot of underdog bets, but just know that there can be money to be made on a well-placed bet.
2018 was a Bounce-Back Year for Underdogs
Underdog victories were on the decline recently, as in 2015 dogs had a winning percentage of 38.5, but in 2017 that percentage dropped to 32. However, there was a bit of a comeback in 2018 as underdogs finished at a 36 winning percentage and that trend has continued into 2019.
Through 19 events this year, underdogs are hitting at a rate of 36.8 percent. Most recently, UFC Fight Night Greenville: Moicano vs the Korean Zombie saw dogs win five of the 11 fights, earning bettors $205.91 based on a $100 wager on each fight. The biggest upset of the evening was on the undercard with Molly McCann (+215) beating Ariane Lipski. Overall this year, the biggest upset is Allen Crowder (+375) over Greg Hardy.
Odds Shark will update the records for underdogs vs favorites broken down per card following each event. Additionally, we will break down the profits based on $100 on every underdog vs $100 on each favorite.
Here’s a look at the record for 2019:
Event | Underdog Wins | Favorite Wins | Biggest Upset |
---|---|---|---|
YEAR TO DATE | 82 | 141 | Allen Crowder (+375) over Greg Hardy |
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw | 6 | 7 | Allen Crowder (+375) over Greg Hardy |
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 | 7 | 6 | Rogerio Bontorin (+300) over Magomed Bibulatov |
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva | 0 | 11 | No dog wins. |
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez** | 5 | 6 | Nik Lentz (+140) over Scott Holtzman |
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos** | 3 | 9 | Ismail Naurdiev (+325) over Michel Prazeres |
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith | 4 | 8 | Hannah Cifers (+240) over Polyana Viana |
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos | 4 | 9 | Maurice Greene (+185) over Jeff Hughes |
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal | 4 | 8 | Jorge Masvidal (+190) over Darren Till |
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis | 6 | 6 | Anthony Pettis (+300) over Stephen Thompson |
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje** | 6 | 6 | Casey Kenney (+210) over Ray Borg |
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 | 6 | 7 | Dustin Poirier (+175) over Max Holloway |
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik** | 3 | 7 | Roxanne Modafferi (+280) over Antonina Shevchenko |
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson | 4 | 8 | Jack Hermansson (+170) over Jacare Souza |
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy** | 4 | 7 | Vince Morales (+147) over Aiemann Zahabi |
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade** | 2 | 9 | Viviane Araujo (+210) over Talita Bernardo |
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee | 6 | 7 | Ed Herman (+200) over Patrick Cummins |
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith** | 4 | 5 | Lina Lansberg (+280) over Tonya Evinger |
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes** | 3 | 9 | Darren Stewart (+140) over Bevon Lewis |
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie | 5 | 6 | Molly McCann (+215) over Ariane Lipski |
** Indicates a card that had a fight with pick’em odds
Event | Profit based on $100 Underdog bets | Profit based on $100 favorite bets |
---|---|---|
YEAR TO DATE | -1636.79 | -1293.52 |
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw | +$413.0 | -$290.99 |
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 | +$520.0 | -$326.09 |
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva | -$1100.0 | +$493.27 |
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez** | +$0.91 | -$244.34 |
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos** | -$340.0 | +$180.06 |
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith | -$90.0 | -$45.56 |
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos | -$349.76 | +$112.15 |
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal | -$210.0 | +$62.61 |
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis | +$305.0 | -$354.43 |
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje** | +$225.0 | -$329.76 |
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 | +$55.24 | -$191.67 |
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik** | -$195.0 | -$1.56 |
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson | -$245.0 | +$33.5 |
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy** | -$257.09 | -$81.51 |
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade** | -$580.0 | +$294.48 |
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee | +$275.0 | -$419.68 |
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith** | +$255.0 | -$70.61 |
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes** | -$525.0 | +$121.67 |
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie | +$205.91 | -$235.06 |
** Indicates a card that had a fight with pick’em odds