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UFC: 2019 Underdogs vs Favorites Record

UFC Underdogs vs Favorites records

There’s nothing better than identifying a mismatch where the oddsmakers have made a mistake and you reap the rewards of an underdog win. However, that is a lot easier to say than it is to do and sometimes it burns you the other way when those clear cut-and-dry favorites cost you money when the underdog pulls off that upset.

One of the most shocking upsets of 2018 had arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter Demetrious Johnson losing by unanimous decision to Henry Cejudo (+350) at UFC 227. This doesn’t mean you should be swinging for the fences on every card with a lot of underdog bets, but just know that there can be money to be made on a well-placed bet.

2018 was a bounce-back year for underdogs

Underdog victories were on the decline recently, as in 2015 dogs had a winning percentage of 38.5, but in 2017 that percentage dropped to 32. However, there was a bit of a comeback in 2018 as underdogs finished at a 34 winning percentage and that trend has continued into the early goings of 2019.

Through 11 events in 2019, underdogs are hitting at a rate of 38 percent. Most recently, UFC 236: Holloway vs Poirier II saw dogs win six of the 13 fights, earning bettors a profit of $55.24 based on a $100 wager on each fight. The biggest upset of the evening was in the main event with Dustin Poirier (+175) winning over Max Holloway. Overall this year, the biggest upset is Allen Crowder (+375) over Greg Hardy.

OddsShark will update the records for underdogs vs favorites broken down per card following each event. Additionally, we will break down the profits based on $100 on every underdog vs $100 on each favorite.

Here’s a look at the record for 2019:

EventUnderdog WinsFavorite WinsBiggest Upset
YEAR TO DATE5183Allen Crowder (+375) over Greg Hardy
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw67Allen Crowder (+375) over Greg Hardy
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 276Rogerio Bontorin (+300) over Magomed Bibulatov
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva011No dog wins.
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez**56Nik Lentz (+140) over Scott Holtzman
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos**39Ismail Naurdiev (+325) over Michel Prazeres
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith48Hannah Cifers (+240) over Polyana Viana
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos49Maurice Greene (+185) over Jeff Hughes
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal48Jorge Masvidal (+190) over Darren Till
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis66Anthony Pettis (+300) over Stephen Thompson
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje**66Casey Kenney (+210) over Ray Borg
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 267Dustin Poirier (+175) over Max Holloway

** Indicates a card that had a fight with pick’em odds

EventProfit based on $100 Underdog betsProfit based on $100 favorite bets
YEAR TO DATE-570.61-934.75
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw+$413.0-$290.99
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2+$520.0-$326.09
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva-$1100.0+$493.27
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez**+$0.91-$244.34
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos**-$340.0+$180.06
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith-$90.0-$45.56
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos-$349.76+$112.15
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal-$210.0+$62.61
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis+$305.0-$354.43
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje**+$225.0-$329.76
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2+$55.24-$191.67

** Indicates a card that had a fight with pick’em odds

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